863
FXUS63 KABR 300002 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
702 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and weak thunderstorms will continue through the weekend.
Severe weather is not expected with this system, though cold air
funnels are possible in the afternoons. Heavier rain or stationary
storms may also pose a flooding threat.

- Precipitation (20-40%) chances on Tuesday, then dry the rest of
the week.

- Cooler (below normal) temperatures in store by Wednesday and
Thursday of next week. Highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

An H7 low has settled over western SD this afternoon and continues
to generate some showers across central SD. While the H7 low is
helping to amp up mid level moisture, there`s also southerly surface
flow ahead of a sfc low in western NE that continues to push
dewpoints into the 60s and PWATs up over 1.5 inches. Shortwave
energy also adds to the forcing. Earlier this afternoon, there were
a couple of reports of cold air funnels in Marshall county.
Afternoon convection coupled with the cooler air aloft is making
conditions favorable for funnels on the upslope of the Coteau.

The other concern with the daytime heating convection is the threat
for localized flooding with very slow moving storms over already
saturated soil in the east. On the positive side, these cells should
dissipate with sunset. Precipitation under the H7 and a southerly
descending H5 low into Saturday and Sunday will linger more over
central SD. Given the high PWATs and slow moving system, some models
are accumulating upwards of 4 to 6 inches over a 72 hour period over
portions of central SD. If the rain is stretched over the weekend,
the soils are drier in central SD, especially south of Pierre and
will be able to handle the absorption. We will continue to monitor
for any increased rates in thunderstorms that may result in runoff.

A cold front swings through Tuesday night bringing the potential for
temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight if clouds clear. Highs
on Wednesday appear to be 10 to 15 degrees below average for early
September, in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to affect parts of
central and northeast South Dakota early this evening. KPIR
continues to be the most impacted with a cluster of storms
surrounding that terminal. MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys are most
likely to occur at this TAF site as long as the showers and storms
remain in the vicinity. Elsewhere, included VCSH mention at
KABR/KMBG into this evening as less intense showers continue to
linger in these areas. Will have to monitor for any new activity
developing around KATY, but for now anticipate mainly dry
conditions.

Showers are expected to persist more or less through the night
and into the daytime hours on Saturday at KPIR. MVFR cigs can be
expected to persist at this TAF site through a majority of the
morning and into the afternoon hours Saturday. Anticipate daytime
development of more scattered showers and storms in the KABR/KMBG
areas during the afternoon. Generally speaking, VFR conditions
are expected through this TAF cycle at KABR/KATY/KMBG, unless more
intense showers and storms move into these aerodromes.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...Vipond