709
FXUS63 KABR 011119 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
519 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain or drizzle will continue over portions of
  northeastern SD (mainly near the ND/SD border) this morning.

- Expect widespread moderate rain late Sunday night through
  early Tuesday. There is a 55 to 80 percent chance of
  receiving 2 inches or more rain by Tuesday afternoon over
  portions of northeastern South Dakota and west central
  Minnesota. The lightest rainfall amounts, totaling generally
  around or less than an inch are forecast west of a line from
  Mobridge to Eagle Butte.

- Winds out of the north will gust 45 to 55 mph late Monday
  afternoon into Monday evening near and west of the Missouri
  River, and linger over portions of south central South Dakota
  into early Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

As of 1 AM temperatures across the region are in the 40s with winds
out of the south at around 10 mph. Some light showers or drizzle
will continue this morning across eastern SD with little to no
accumulation expected. Today will be the warmest day for the
forecast period across most areas with highs in the 60s. Winds this
afternoon will be out of the south and gust between 25 and 30 mph
mainly west of the James River.

The main focus of the forecast is still the precipitation starting
late Sunday and lasting through Tuesday as a low pressure system
makes its way across the forecast area. We still see widespread
chances above 60% from late Sunday evening through early Tuesday
morning, with chances coming to an end west to east during the day
Tuesday. The chance for more than one inch between Monday and
Tuesday mornings is between 75 and 95% for areas along and east of
the Missouri River, only slightly less west. The chance for more
than 2 inches in that same time frame has come down considerably and
is now between 45 and 65% mainly east of the James River. The chance
for more than 2 inches between Sunday night and Tuesday night (48
hours) is 55 to 80% mainly around and east of the Missouri River,
45% or less to the west.

The cold front associated with that incoming low will make its way
from northwest to southeast across the area Monday resulting in much
cooler highs for north central SD, generally in the upper 50s, and a
bit warmer for everyone else, generally in the low 60s. Much cooler
air will move in behind the cold front and low, bringing our
temperatures down to around normal, or highs in the upper 40s to low
50s. Winds are still looking to be strong with this incoming low
with gusts of 35 to 40 mph spreading from west to east through the
day Monday and into Tuesday. Winds of 45 to 55 mph will be possible
along and west of the Missouri River. These higher end gusts will
slowly come to an end through the day Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A chaotic, patchy mix of VFR to IFR stratus is around the area
this morning. Expect ceilings to fill in with MVFR today as
southeast winds increase ahead of an approaching low tonight. As
the rain moves in tonight, vsby will fall to MVFR/IFR as well.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20