474
FXUS63 KABR 062352 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
652 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low temperatures Sunday morning will be within around 5 degrees
  of record low values, with highs Sunday remaining around 10
  degrees below normal.

- Patchy frost is expected late tonight into early Sunday morning,
  mainly east of the Missouri River, as temperatures drop into
  the 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

East of the MO River, a ribbon of moisture around 800mb and daytime
heating has resulted in another day of flat fair weather cumulus
clouds. This ribbon of moisture will be diminishing during during
the late afternoon and evening hours. A few forecast models have
indicated the potential for fog over portions of our eastern
counties around daybreak Sunday morning. However, the fog potential
looks limited at this time. If fog or lower ceilings were to develop
it would result in warmer overnight temperatures and potentially
negate some of the frost. The elongated area of high pressure set up
from Manitoba through ND and the east half of SD will be focused
over our area by 06Z and drift across IA and southern MN shortly
after daybreak Sunday.

A Frost Advisory has been issued for most of our counties east of
the MO River for late tonight into early Sunday morning. The low
temperature forecast is to be in the 30s. Record lows for September
7th are mainly in the low to mid 30s, and 29 degrees at Aberdeen. If
winds go calm, a few of these records could be in jeopardy. Aberdeen
is the least likely to be broken at this point, as our current
forecast is for a low near 35. A PNS has been issued to highlight
the current forecast low and record lows for the 7th.

Southerly winds will return during the day Sunday, between the
exiting surface high and trough over eastern WY and far southwestern
SD by Sunday afternoon. Gusts of 20 to near 30 mph can be expected
over central South Dakota, along with increasing temperatures. Lows
Monday morning will be in the 50s, or 15 to 20 degrees higher than
what is forecast for Sunday morning. Winds just above the surface
(low level jet) will be 30-35kts overnight into early Sunday
morning. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms will return to
far eastern SD and western MN as early as Monday into Monday evening
as the surface trough to our west pushes a low over at least central
SD Monday into Monday night before sinking to our south.

Taking a look at the overall pattern, the 500mb ridge flatting out
over our area Sunday night and Monday will rebound for the middle of
the work week, in response to the next 500mb low moving onshore over
the west coast. A 20-30% chance of showers and storms will return to
central SD Wednesday, and expand across the rest of the area off and
on during the rest of the forecast period. Overall precipitation
amounts look to be at or below seasonal normal values for this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Less than 20%
of model guidance does show fog near/south of ATY around daybreak
Sunday. We will leave this out of the forecast for now, but
monitor the latest trends for a possible addition to later TAF
issuances.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for SDZ004>011-
     016>023-034-036-037.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT