816
FXUS63 KABR 212332 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
632 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a brief break on Tuesday before spotty chances
  of rain return Tuesday night across central South Dakota.
  Occasional rain chances continue Wednesday through the end of
  the week with the highest chances (50-80%) Wednesday afternoon
  through Thursday morning.

- Temperatures will remain near to slightly below seasonal
  averages through Tuesday before climbing above normal
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The upper low is centered around Sioux City late this morning. It
continues to pull bands of light rain and low clouds into portions
southeast of a line from Ortonville to Pierre. Farther north,
however, sunshine is beginning to filter through with more breaks in
the cloud coverage. This system is expected to pull farther south
and east this afternoon taking the precip and clouds with it.

The mid-level moisture hangs around Tuesday along with some
shortwave activity. Southeast winds increase on return flow as sfc
high pressure sits over the northern Great Lakes and a Rocky
Mountain low settles over Wyoming. By Tuesday afternoon, a 25 to 30
kt llj sets up over central SD. Winds at the sfc will gust 30 to 35
mph. Overnight, these features shift slightly east and upper ridging
builds into the Plains. The southerly sfc flow and llj will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday morning. Then
the low pressure wave moves into South Dakota for Wednesday
afternoon with an upper low moving into ND amplifying the precip
potential. Temperatures are forecast to top out in the 60s and 70s
on Wednesday under that ridge even with the clouds and rain.

Persistent south to southeast flow at the sfc and a fairly active
pattern of shortwaves and 700 mb to 500 mb lows will keep off and on
shower chances in the forecast into the weekend. While an active and
rather wet pattern is in place this week, nothing looks particularly
hazardous at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

All four terminals currently have VFR cigs over them. It`s also
raining at KATY. Satellite imagery suggests over the next 3-6
hours, one or more of these terminals (probably KABR/KMBG) could
become uncovered by clouds, allowing for partial to perhaps full
clearing during part or most of the tonight period (prior to
12Z Tuesday). Guidance does start to draw higher amounts of low
level moisture into the region overnight (ie. low clouds or
perhaps more fog where it clears off followed by low clouds) on
south-southeast winds. In some places, the stratus layer may be
deep enough to support drizzle at times over the next 24 hours,
if any lift can be had within the stratus layer. During the
overnight hours into Tuesday morning VFR flying conditions will
reduce down to MVFR/IFR flying conditions, mainly due to low
cigs developing/moving over the region.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10