395
FXUS63 KABR 312347 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog with pockets of visibility at or below 1 mile will
  continue through this evening over portions of northern and
  northeast SD.

- Light rain or drizzle will continue over portions of
  northeastern SD (mainly near the ND/SD border) this evening.
  An additional round of light rain is expected late this
  evening into late Sunday morning. Rainfall through Sunday
  morning will be around a tenth of an inch or less.

- Expect widespread moderate rain Monday morning through early
  Tuesday. There is a 25 to 35 percent chance of receiving 3
  inches or more rain by Tuesday afternoon over portions of
  northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. The
  lightest rainfall amounts, totaling generally less than an
  inch are forecast west of a line from Mobridge to Eagle Butte.

- Winds out of the north will gust 45 to 55 mph late Monday
  afternoon into Monday evening near and west of the Missouri
  River, and linger over portions of south central South Dakota
  into early Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Steady light showers have remained mainly near and south of a line
from Watertown to Miller today, with sprinkles/drizzle and fog being
the main concern. There are still a few pockets of lower visibility
that will continue to improve from north to south this afternoon
into this evening. Pockets of 1 mile or less visibility are most
likely to remain into this evening across western Corson, Campbell,
McPherson and Edmunds Counties. The warm front near our southern
counties will continue to push north and reside mainly north of the
ND/SD border by 03Z Sunday as the surface low shifts across far
western SD. This should help improve visibilities and bring about at
least some temporary relief to the lower clouds. An additional round
of moisture will push in in advance of the next low across WY/CO
Sunday evening with showers becoming widespread.

The more steady moderate rainfall will behind late Sunday evening,
with much of the rain falling during the daytime hours Monday.
Rainfall amounts continue to show a large spread, but confidence is
increasing as the time nears that rainfall amounts of over half an
inch will be more and more likely (even across north central SD
where the lightest amounts are anticipated). There is a 25 to 35
percent chance of receiving 3 inches or more rain by Tuesday
afternoon over portions of northeastern South Dakota and west
central Minnesota. The lightest rainfall amounts, totaling generally
less than an inch are forecast west of a line from Mobridge to Eagle
Butte. We will need to monitor river/stream levels due to this
prolonged period of rain. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Forecast is in
the Marginal category for the entire area. There is also a General
Risk of thunderstorms over our far southeastern counties for this
time period (Monday) so brief heavy pockets of rain will not be
completely out of the question.

Otherwise, winds will be a concern for portions of central SD behind
the exiting low. Winds out of the north will gust 45 to 55 mph late
Monday afternoon into Monday evening near and west of the Missouri
River, and linger over portions of south central South Dakota into
early Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Pockets of MVFR/IFR CIGs this evening over portions of the
region, but we may be in a brief "clearing out" of widespread
low clouds at the TAF sites this evening, before more MVFR/IFR
CIGs redevelop into the nighttime hours. VSBY seems to be
improving across the region as well, with indications of mostly
VFR VSBY during the overnight hours, but will certainly have to
pay attention to any FG/BR redevelopment this evening. Also
anticipate pockets of -RA entering the region tonight, mainly
affecting KABR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT