638
FXUS63 KABR 302321 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
621 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms across portions
  of north central SD late this afternoon into the evening
  hours, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across the
  remainder of the forecast area. Main threats are wind gusts
  from 60 to 75 mph and hail from 1 inch to 1.5 inches in
  diameter.

- Rainfall chances (50-70%) return for Tuesday, with low end chances
  (5-15%) for severe storms.

- Above normal temperatures (+5 to +10 degrees) remaining in
  place through much of the upcoming week, especially the
  latter half and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

Strong cold front poised to start working into the far
northwest corner of the CWA. Have seen strong/severe
thunderstorms develop along this front, including gusts between
50mph to 100mph over the far western Dakotas. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to move/develop into Corson/Dewey
counties over the next couple of hours with damaging TS wind
threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Broad area of low pressure over the area this afternoon, with a warm
front splayed out across the CWA. Further west, surface cold front
is nearing the MT/ND border. Stratus clouds north of the warm front
are slowly eroding this afternoon, and will continue to do so over
the next couple hours. Already beginning to see a growing cumulus
field across the western Dakotas within the surface trough. Also
further west across eastern MT is an approaching broken line of
showers/storms associated more in line with the forcing from the
upper trough. Mesoscale discussion already posted for the western
Dakotas for severe storms potentially developing/moving into the
region over the next couple hours. CAMs continue to suggest a broken
line of convection gradually forming and moving eastward into the
central Dakotas. Areal coverage still appears greatest over ND, but
ensemble paintball output does show the southern portion of the line
of convection into central/north central SD this evening. Big
question is just how far south and east convection will survive as
we progress through the evening hours. It appears by the time we`re
dealing with convection in our western CWA, the main threats will be
strong wind gusts between 60 and 75 mph, although stronger cores
could contain hail from quarter to golf ball size.

On Monday, post-frontal air mass moves in, which will feature much
drier conditions with dewpoints dropping down into the 50s. Winds
look to be rather light as well as high pressure settles in.
Although highs still look to be in the 80s, it will feel much more
comfortable with the lack of humidity. RH values do fall to between
25 and 30 percent west of the Missouri, but with a lack of strong
winds, fire weather concerns shouldn`t be surfacing too much.

Focus will then shift to Tuesday as shortwave energy moves into the
region from the southwest and precipitation chances return. Low-
level moisture will be on the increase once again with dewpoints
shooting back into the 60s, especially over the southern/southeast
CWA. Models continue to show precipitation over the region Tuesday
afternoon and evening, and inherited PoPs are fairly high (50-70%).
Still seeing a signal for heavy rainfall potential with NBM 90th
percentile 24hr QPF between 1 to 2 inches. ML severe storm potential
output for Day 3 (Tuesday) shows low end (5-15%) probabilities
across portions of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions have resumed at all four terminals now, and VFR
conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Right now, it
seems KMBG holds the highest probability of experiencing a TSRA
this evening, so have introduced TEMPO groups into the KMBG TAF
for this (including strong TS wind potential). MVFR/IFR VSBY is
possible in any heavier downpours. As a cold front pushes
through the CWA tonight, blustery northwest winds will be
possible at the KMBG/KPIR terminals. Eventually, all four
terminals will see the wind switch from light and variable or
light southeasterly to a breezy northwest wind of 15 to 25 knots
with some occasionally higher gusts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10