780
FXUS63 KABR 080216 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
916 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued chance for showers and thunderstorms (30-60%) through
  the evening hours.

- 15-20% chance of light rain Sunday with chances increasing
  Monday night into Tuesday (20-50%).

- Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday-Friday of next
  week, with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Currently have an area of showers and thunderstorms tracking from
northwest to southeast over the CWA. There was one severe storm on
the southwest side of this area earlier this evening, but do not
anticipate any additional severe weather tonight. No changes made
to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Light rain with embedded weak convection continues to drift across
the south central portion of the CWA early this afternoon. CAMS show
this continues to move east/dissipate, with additional potential for
development along and south of the White River. Cant rule out that a
storm will develop within the CWA before moving out, but CAMS are
generally closer to the state line in their depiction of convective
initiation. The other focus area is up north, where a northwest flow
shortwave is zipping through North Dakota. The associated cold front
is along I94, with just some weak Altocumulus in northwest South
Dakota at this time. Timing for convective initiation up that way is
around 00Z, with a rapid progression east-southeast thanks to strong
mid-level winds. Despite just a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE, strong
shear may help to support marginal hail, but the main threat should
be more akin to straight line winds given straight hodographs and
and that near unidirectional shear profile. Severe weather threat is
also contingent on daytime heating so post 00-02Z which CAMS do show
storms indicate rapid weakening.

Additional elevated/weak convection is possible in association with
weak/very subtle mid level warm advection in southwest South Dakota
towards morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Starting off the long term, the +PNA pattern continues with Clusters
in overall agreement on a very positive mid level trough (along with
the 850mb-surface trough) swinging down from Canada and into the
Northern Plains. However, the placement of this system at 12Z Sunday
is all over the place between the ensembles. Cluster 1 (made up of
mostly GEFS) has a mid level low pushing northwest over Canada
(which seems to be the outlier). Cluster 4 (made up of majority
GEFS) has a quickest onset of the system into the Northern Plains.
This system will continue its track southeast through Sunday evening
into early Monday morning (model depending). The majority of the
Clusters do show the possibility of very light precip with this
system, mainly Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. NBM backs this up
with a 15-20% chance of light rain. Models indicate weak lift and
really nothing more than rain with isolated weak thunderstorms at
most.

The next wave and low moves in from the west/northwest Monday
through Tuesday with the Clusters agreeing on this, but timing and
intensity of the wave varies quite a bit between the ensembles. This
could bring our next chance of moisture with NBM pops ranging from
20-50%, highest Monday evening through early Tuesday. Mid level
ridge moves in overhead midweek with timing and intensity
differences among the Clusters as some show more zonal flow. More
light precip chances (15-30%) return Wednesday evening-Friday,
however confidence remains low at this time.

Highs for Sunday and Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees below average
with highs only in the upper 60s to the lower to mid 70s. Warmer air
moves in over central SD with the incoming ridge with forecasted
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 west of the James River on
Tuesday. We really see that warmer air on Wednesday with potential
highs well into the 80s and possibly lower 90s, which is 10-12
degrees above average. This warmer air looks to stick around through
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
tonight and through the day Saturday. The exception will be with
an area of showers and thunderstorms that will track from north
central South Dakota to east central South Dakota this evening.
Periods of MVFR vsbys will be possible with any thunderstorms.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...Parkin