030
FXUS63 KABR 020112 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
812 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some of the coolest temperatures of the season will be possible
  tonight. Overnight lows in some areas of northeast SD and west
  central will be cool enough for a touch of frost by daybreak
  Friday.

- Temperatures will remain near to below normal through the weekend
  before warming above normal next week.

- There is a 20-30 percent chance for showers on Saturday, otherwise
  mostly dry conditions are expected through the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Current temperatures range in the upper 40s to the upper 50s,
with the warmest temps over west central MN. High pressure is
currently over west central SD with ongoing northwest to
southeast oriented mid clouds stretching from MT through central
SD into Nebraska. Still some light returns on radar across
south central SD. Soundings still indicate a very shallow
saturated layer between 600-700mb with dry air at the surface.
Therefore, any rain that does fall will be sprinkles or virga.
Winds will continue to diminish to near calm as the high
pressure system tracks eastward across the region. Through the
overnight, high clouds will also track eastward across the CWA
and exiting the region by Friday evening. With diurnal cooling
and light winds, temps are forecast to drop in the upper 30s to
the upper 40s, coldest over NESD. Patchy frost is still possible
for this area but confidence remains low, depending on how fast
the high clouds move in overnight before peak cooling. Latest
REFS Prob of temps below 36 is 10% or less, with NBM up to 35%,
highest along the ND/SD border over far NESD. Overall the
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Early afternoon conditions across the forecast area range from
mostly sunny skies and brisk northerly winds across northeast SD and
west central MN while central SD is experiencing more clouds and
some pesky sprinkles and brief showers. Overall, temperatures have
climbed into the low to mid 60s this afternoon.

The center of a sfc high pressure system will build into the area
tonight through Friday morning setting up a bit of a tricky
temperatures forecast. Clouds are likely to hang tough across
central SD tonight while northeast SD and west central MN remain
clear to partly cloudy. With a dry air mass in place with dew point
temperatures in the low to mid 30s and a combination of light winds
and those clear skies, the setup could be right for some of the
coolest temperatures of the season so far. Most of the forecast
area, outside of northeast SD and west central MN will see overnight
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. However, the northeast corner of
SD and west central MN could dip into the mid to upper 30s prior to
daybreak Friday. One of the key factors in this will be sky
condition. Most of the overnight should remain clear but guidance
does hint at high clouds encroaching into the James Valley and some
locales farther east by about 09Z-12Z. If this were to occur,
readings in that mid 30s range might be hard to achieve. Did lower
values in these zones closer to NBM`s 25th percentile. HREF/REFS
guidance probabilities of seeing temperatures cooler than 37 degrees
range from about 10-25 percent for the northeast corner of SD and
west central MN. Did insert areas of frost wording into the forecast
for those zones overnight and will highlight the threat in an SPS
but for now will hold just shy of issuing any frost headline.

Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through Friday as
high pressure maintains control and shifts east of the region by the
afternoon. Southeast breezes will return to central SD in the
afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph possible. The next system
approaches the area Friday night into Saturday. Low pressure and a
cold front will pass through the region at that time and deliver a
20-30 percent chance for showers mainly across the northern and
northeastern half of the forecast area on Saturday. Prior to the
fropa on Saturday, there will be enough of a window to see temps
warm into the upper 60s to low 70s, but it will all be tied to the
timing of that front. Conditions dry out for the latter half of the
weekend as temps cool back below normal. This will spill over into
Monday before the next surge of warmer than normal air returns
Tuesday into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A band of mid level clouds, oriented northwest to southeast
across central SD continue with radar still indicating spotty
returns associated with these clouds. Latest HRRR soundings
indicate just a bit of lift/saturation between 600-700mb at
KPIR. However, low levels are quite dry so much of the precip
may only be falling as sprinkles or virga. This looks to
continue over the next several hours. This threat will diminish
with sunset with the possibility of more light sprinkles/virga
overnight at KPIR/KMBG, again low levels will remain dry per
high pressure system. Winds become southeast on Friday and turn
gusty up to 20-25 kts at KPIR/KMBG Friday afternoon. Otherwise,
VFR cigs prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM