996
FXUS63 KABR 080930
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
430 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs today and Tuesday will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal
across the region.

- Mainly elevated smoke will move across the area today into
Tuesday. Some of this smoke will near the surface with visibility
reductions possible mainly west of the Missouri River tonight.

- There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
north and east of Watertown this evening. The main threat is large
hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Low pressure moves in from the west today. Ahead of the low,
southerly flow and warm air advection coupled with some shortwave
energy will be enough to trigger some showers and thunderstorms.
Most of the energy will be focused in MN, but could trail back into
eastern SD. There is a marginal risk for severe storms north and
east of Watertown with hail being the main threat. Not particularly
impressed given the weak nature of the forcing and its concentration
farther east but do have some pops in there this evening with the
increased perturbation in the upper flow.

WAA today will push temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average both
today and Tuesday. Ridging builds back in on Tuesday with drier
conditions expected behind today`s sfc low. The only other concern
is the wildfire smoke. Both the HRRR and the RAP keep most of the
smoke elevated, but near sfc smoke could move into central SD as
early as this evening with reduced visibilities.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Tuesday evening, the upper level ridge to our west is starting to
move towards the area. The axis will cross the area Thursday.
Skipping ahead to the weekend, the models have come into more
agreement with a low moving in from the west, as opposed to previous
model runs with either a low or a trough getting stuck in the
Rockies. The Canadian and EC show an upper level low pressure system
move across the Rockies and into western SD on Sunday. The GFS still
shows a low parking over the Rockies and dying into a trough. The
Canadian shows the low moving almost straight north and dying out
early Monday. The EC shows the low sticking around into Monday.

The long term has chances for showers/storms every day. Highest PoPs
(30-50%) are Saturday as the low level low moves in and Sunday as it
continues to move across the area. The NBM shows the chance of more
than a quarter of an inch in 24 hours (ending Sunday afternoon) as
around 30% across most of the forecast area. Temperatures through
the period remain right around or slightly above average. Elevated
smoke looks to remain over the region at least through the day
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mostly VFR conditions can be expected through the period. Low-level
wind shear will be a concern through the overnight period and have
inserted mention of this into the TAFs. Otherwise, near-surface
smoke will approach central SD towards the end of the TAF period,
but unclear yet whether or not it`ll be far enough east to affect
KPIR/KMBG by 06Z Tues.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...20