068
FXUS63 KABR 031727 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A  Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place for
storms this afternoon and evening, mainly east of the Missouri
River. Large hail of 1-2" in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph
are the main threats. Tornadoes will be a secondary threat, as will
flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. Areas west of the Missouri
River are under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5).

- Thursday, another Slight Risk for severe weather is in effect
along and south of US Highway 12. Areas to the north of US Highway
12 are under a Marginal Risk. Large hail of 1-2" in diameter will be
the main threat, with wind gusts of 60 mph as a secondary threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1034 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Some scattered showers and storms are occurring over areas west
of the Missouri River this morning. Chance of precipitation and
weather forecasts has been updated to reflect these conditions
this morning into the early afternoon. Otherwise, storms are
still on track to begin during the afternoon through the evening
with slight risk for severe storms to occur.

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Sub-severe showers and storms are overhead early this morning, and
the expectation is that storms will continue to weaken as they move
east. Some weak showers to perhaps isolated thunderstorms will
linger through the morning, but expecting very little out of what
remains of these storms.

Focus then shifts to the severe threat this afternoon and evening.
Model guidance has trended storm development a bit to the west,
mainly along a cold front that will be passing through during the
course of the day. Storm mode will begin as discrete cells (forming
between the James River Valley and Missouri River) before turning
into a line of storms in the evening as they progress east of the
James River. Hail is expected to be the main threat, particularly
with the earlier storms. Significant hail development (2"+ in
diameter) will be possible, with 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE, 30-40 knots
of shear, and mid-level lapse rates > 7 C/km all supportive of the
threat. Severe wind gusts will be the secondary threat, with
northeastern South Dakota being the main potential threat area with
the linear storm mode. DCAPE over 1000 J/kg will be present, along
with near-surface lapse rates of 8 C/km, supporting easier mixing to
the surface. Concern for tornadoes will also be in place, although
there is a bit more uncertainty here. Low-level shear will likely be
the main limitation here, but can`t rule anything out at the moment.
Also can`t rule out heavy rain leading to flooding either, although
this will be most prevalent while storms are in the discrete mode
early on. Once storms form the line, the chances for training and/or
slow moving storms are expected to decrease.

Another Slight Risk is in place Thursday evening, with the main
threat being over central South Dakota. Strong CAPE > 2000 J/kg will
be present in that area, along with shear of 40-50 knots. This along
with lapse rates of 7 to even 8 C/km will support severe hail as
once again being the main threat. Wind and tornado threat is less of
a concern at the moment. However, can`t quite rule out a stray gust
or two with some marginal DCAPE over central South Dakota, nor can
tornado development be entirely disregarded. At this point, the most
favorable locations for both of those hazards will be over central
South Dakota, as is the largest hail threat.

A weak upper-level ridge builds overhead late Friday into Saturday,
temporarily cutting off precipitation chances for the weekend. This
break may not last long however, as ensemble confidence remains
fairly high on another upper-level trough developing over the
western CONUS by next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Some scattered showers early this afternoon will lead to some lower
ceilings over KPIR, and KMBG for a bit while other areas will see
VFR to MVFR conditions. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe storms to occur this afternoon over KMBG, KABR, and KPIR and
during the evening for KATY. Once these storms move through,
conditions should get better. Southerly to southeasterly winds will
be possible this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph (highest over
KATY). Once a cold front moves through with the storms, the wind
will switch to be coming from the northwest and then become fairly
light and variable into Thursday morning. Additionally, patchy fog
will be possible in the morning, which could decrease visibilities
over KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...12