942
FXUS63 KABR 100541 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1141 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 10 to 15 degree below normal temperatures tonight.

- Above normal temperatures return for the Tuesday - Friday
timeframe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

See the updated aviation discussion for the 06Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 853 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Surface high pressure continues to settle into the region this
evening. Temperatures have dropped into the teens and 20s and are
expected to fall into the single digits and teens respectively.
There are some high clouds spilling into the western CWA, but
probably the biggest challenge is the stratus deck sliding down
out of eastern North Dakota and spreading across parts of far
eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Temperatures
under this cloud deck are still up in the upper 20s. Models show
this moving out between 09-12Z, but based on current trends, this
may be a bit too optimistic. Because of this, did raise low
temperatures slightly in this area and adjusted sky cover
accordingly. Otherwise, the going forecast look to be on track.

UPDATE Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

See the updated aviation discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Northerly flow aloft and a surface high pressure is producing chilly
temperatures across the forecast areas this afternoon with highs
mostly in the 20s and low 30s. An upper level vort over western
Minnesota is producing low clouds, and perhaps isolated flurries
northeast of the CWA. While the low clouds are invading the far
northeast CWA, some model guidance like the NBM and HREF keeps
most of the clouds over the far eastern CWA. Other models try to
bring the clouds, and isolated flurries further west, or near the
James River valley. Will run with the NBM output for now and make
adjustments later if needed. With a 1040 mb surface high pressure
sliding southward across the area tonight, winds will become light
and variable, along with a mostly clear sky west of I29. This
should allow low temperature to plummet into the single digits and
low teens. Wind chill values may range within a few degrees above
zero. WAA develops west of the CWA later tonight with some
locations seeing steady or slow rising temperatures toward
sunrise.

On Monday, the surface high pressure will exit the region, with
southerly flow spreading across the CWA. Meanwhile, a shortwave
passing well north and east of the region will bring much above
average airmass into the area, starting out west on Monday, and
pushing across the CWA on Tuesday. The warm air will continue
through the work week, with highs mostly in the 50s. As of now,
Friday appears to be our warmest day with highs in the mid 50s, to
the mid 60s. Depending on deterministic model used, 925 mb temps
reach +10C on Friday, which is above the 75th percentile. That said,
forecast south-southeastly winds are not typically our warm
producing winds.

Deterministic models show a storms system impacting the central US
Saturday through perhaps Monday, with some suggesting a decent
amount of pcpn for the Northern Plains. However, there is still a
significant ensemble spread, leading to a low forecaster confidence.
GEFS plumes at KABR show anywhere from 1.81 inches of liquid, to
zero. The mean is 0.2 inches. Basically, it could be a big storm
system, or just a passing wave with little pcpn. Stay tuned as the
forecast will likely change through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An MVFR stratus deck extends south from eastern North Dakota down
through northeast south Dakota and a majority of western
Minnesota. There is high uncertainty of the persistence of this
stratus since models are by and far too optimistic. However, it
appears that KATY will be most affected with an MVFR, to perhaps
IFR, ceiling expected through at least 10-12Z. KABR is on the edge
of the cloud deck. At this point left a CIG out of the KABR
forecast. However, will monitor and amend as necessary.
Otherwise, surface high pressure settles in. Northwest winds
become light tonight and return out of the south on Monday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...Serr