324
FXUS63 KABR 201946
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
146 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s through next
  Tuesday, which is around 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Warmest
  temperatures will be this weekend.

- Turning markedly colder starting next Wednesday, as temperatures
  tumble into the teens at night and 20s and 30s during the day.

- There is a 20-40 percent chance of precipitation centered mainly
  on Monday night and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

At 1 PM CST, skies were becoming mostly sunny across the forecast
area. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s for most localities on
northwest winds around 5 to 15 mph.

Surface high pressure over the region does not look to be in a hurry
to depart, forecast to stick around tonight into Friday before
finally being deposed by a surface warm front moving into the
northern plains. The weak low level CAA that has been happening
looks to be replaced by neutral air advection tonight. On Friday,
starting to see the beginnings of low level WAA that continues into
Friday night. Portions of central and north central South Dakota
should begin to feel the effects of WAA Friday afternoon. As the WAA
continues Friday night, extending over into west central Minnesota,
expecting to see, at least, a mild downslope wind event developing
in the lee-of-the-Prairie-Coteau as a result. There could be a
resurgence of low clouds into, at least, the west river counties of
the CWA on Friday, as the low level wind field sets up somewhere
between southerly and westerly in response to the shifting surface
high pressure system over the region. This may, somewhat, hamper
Friday`s warm up out west.

The long term period is a split flow pattern through Monday, as a
low amplitude upper level ridge pattern builds out the northern
branch jet-stream over the northwest/north central CONUS. Beyond
that, the jet-stream appears to consolidate as a longwave trof works
across southern Canada and the northern plains, knocking down the
upper ridge from Monday night through Wednesday. At the same time
this international border system is occurring, model camps now appear
to be introducing a new wrinkle, namely, bringing an upper level
closed low drifting out of the desert southwest into the deep south
Saturday through Sunday, and then up into the central plains/western
Great Lakes region Monday and Tuesday. Ensemble PoPs are now
showcasing a 20 to 40 percent chance of WAA-forced precipitation
(over this CWA) between these two northern and southern branch
systems from mainly Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Right
now, the far northeast corner of the CWA holds a 20-35 percent
chance of receiving a tenth of an inch or more of precipitation
between 00Z Tuesday and 00Z Wednesday.

The southern Canada/northern plains upper level trof is expected to
sweep a potent cold front through the CWA somewhere between 00Z
Tuesday and 00Z Wednesday. The change in airmasses with this cold
fropa next week will be quite noticeable. Instead of high
temperatures being in the 40s and 50s, highs will only be in the 20s
and 30s starting next Tuesday. Low temperatures are expected to
transition from 20s and 30s down into the teens (possibly single
digits) above zero.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

KMBG is coming out of MVFR conditions, and should be VFR for the
rest of the TAF valid period. MVFR conditions at KPIR, KABR and
KATY will start transitioning from MVFR to VFR here between 18Z
and 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10