


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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449 FXUS63 KABR 171158 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 658 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds increase Saturday out of the northwest, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. The winds will cause elevated fire danger over portions of central and north central South Dakota. - Lows for Saturday night will be near or at freezing ranging in the 30s. - Seasonal temperatures this weekend will be followed by slightly cooler readings early next week as gusty northwest winds set in on Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 An upper level trough currently over central North Dakota is producing light pcpn across western ND and northwest SD this morning. The light rain may spread into the northwest portion of the CWA around 10Z or so. Additional light showers are moving northeast across eastern SD and western MN. These showers may continue through 12Z before moving east of the CWA. The upper level trough should move into southern Manitoba by this afternoon, leaving behind westerly winds with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. A shortwave currently over the Pac NW will push into the northern plains late tonight through Saturday. Showers should accompany the shortwave, with the south central CWA having the best potential of seeing a tenth of an inch of QPF, or a 15 to 25% chance. Various other models, like the HREF and ECAM, suggest showers across most of the CWA on Saturday, with only minor QPF. Increasing northwest wind Saturday afternoon may be the main impact from this storm system. Buffer soundings support favorable mixing winds over much of the CWA during the afternoon hours, with peak gusts reaching 25 to 35 knots. Thankfully, winds aloft are not particularly strong, reaching the 40 knot range over central SD. Based on deterministic models, pressure rises are best over southwest SD and into Nebraska. The winds will cause elevated fire weather portions of central and north central South Dakota Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The period begins Saturday night into Sunday morning with an upper trough exiting our region to the east. It will be replaced with ridging at the sfc and aloft on Sunday into Sunday night. The sfc ridge axis is expected to be over the top of our forecast area Sunday morning leading to clear skies and relatively light winds. Temperature readings are likely to start off the day a couple degrees either side of the freezing mark. Southerly flow on the backside of this ridge axis commences during the day providing a bump up in temperatures. Warm advection will kick in during the day with 850mb temperatures topping out between +5C to +10C in our eastern zones and between about +10C and +15C across our western zones Sunday afternoon. This will lead to afternoon daytime highs in the low to mid 60s, which is around 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. This little warm up will be brief however as another upper trough is progged to shift into the Northern Plains late Sunday into Monday. This disturbance will generate a sfc low that will track through the region and push a cold front through our forecast area by early Monday. Some light pcpn will be associated with this system and mainly be confined to our northern zones and/or farther north. There won`t be much moisture to work with, so only anticipate light rain showers. Cold air advection kicks in on Monday with 850mb temperatures falling to 0C to +5C during the day and into negative territory Monday night into Tuesday morning. Guidance is progging a fairly windy day on Monday. NBM probabilities of 24 hour max gusts greater than 45 mph range from 40-60 percent in our east to 60-80 percent in our west on Monday. Northwest flow at the sfc and aloft persists into Tuesday. Temperatures will start off cool Tuesday morning with readings in the 30s, which is near to slightly above normal. Another sfc ridge builds in on Tuesday and then is quickly followed by a weaker upper trough toward the end of this period. Moisture looks to remain limited late in the term, so we will continue to advertise a dry forecast at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG IFR to MVFR cigs are still hanging on around the KATY terminal early this morning. This should be short lived however with VFR conditions developing closer to mid morning. A bank of IFR/MVFR cigs northwest of KMBG will have to be monitored this morning to see if they will sneek far enough south into South Dakota. Would anticipate these clouds to become more VFR in nature. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through this TAF cycle. West to southwest winds will turn gusty today peaking around 25 knots. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Vipond AVIATION...Vipond