406
FXUS63 KABR 021352 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
852 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast
through Monday. There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe
storms on Monday.

- Surface smoke from wildfires is expected to persist across much of
the region through Sunday. Monitor the latest from the EPA and state
agencies, as there may be impacts for those sensitive to smoke.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

No changes planned to the today period forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

An upper low/MCV continue to spin over north central SD early this
morning. The bands of thunderstorms circulating around it have
remained sub-severe. This system will slowly make its way east today
with a continuous moisture feed provided by low level southerly
flow. The absence of a fully open Gulf, though, will keep QPF
manageable for the region as the precip remains west of the Coteau
until late tonight. Will need to be cognizant of saturated areas
east of the Coteau, even with the less than an inch of QPF expected.
Precipitation remains in the forecast through Monday due to
shortwave reinforcement and the persistent weak sfc low over western
SD. By Sunday night, this low meanders into central SD which helps
provide forcing farther east. At this time, no severe storms are
expected through Monday.

The wet pattern continues the first half of the work week with a
series of lows moving off the Rockies. There is some drier mid level
air expected with the mid week low, so some of the precip may be
shunted into ND and MN. Still, ensembles keep a 15 to 35 percent
chance of precip around late Thursday through Saturday.

The other issue of concern is the near sfc smoke from Canadian and
western US fires. HRRR has lessening concentrations for Sunday, but
the RAP keeps vsby in that 4 to 6 mile range through Sunday. Have
kept smoke mention in the grids, accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Smoke continues to hang around this morning with visibilities
generally around 5 to 7SM. Some of this may mix with a little fog
this morning and early Sunday morning to drop conditions to MVFR.
Intermittent showers and thunderstorms are also an issue through
tonight but with low confidence regarding where/when -tsra will
occur, so left mention out of tafs for now. MVFR cigs are expected
to move into KMBG late tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20