800
FXUS63 KABR 150825
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
225 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s this weekend, cooling even
more into the 30s and 40s early next week.

- Rain/snow chances (30-50%) return Monday/Monday night, but many
uncertainties in regards to system strength and overall
precipitation placement/amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 224 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

As of 2 AM, we have an east-west line of showers moving northwest to
southeast across the northern portion of the forecast area. Not
expecting much in the way of accumulation out of this, just a few
hundredths at most. Temperatures across the area are in the mid to
upper 40s with winds out of the north to northwest at less than 10
mph.

Some of the hi-res models are showing a slight chance for light
showers right along the ND/SD border in north central SD. Not a ton
of confidence on this, but did include some low level pops. Other
than this and the showers this morning, not expecting anything in
the way of active weather through the weekend. Temperatures today
and Sunday will be about 10 degrees above average, with highs in the
mid 40s to mid 50s (warmest in south central SD).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The overarching upper level pattern through the upcoming week will
be split flow with several low pressure systems meandering through
this pattern. High uncertainty remains in the timing, placement and
details of each of these systems.

The first notable low pressure system will track up from the
southwest in the Monday-into-Tuesday time frame. Upper level forcing
and support is not overly impressive and looks to be brief. However,
strong mid level warm air advection will proceed the system, as will
moisture return and strong isentropic forcing. Timing of this
system is quite uncertain. Looking at ensemble 500 MB clusters, they
basically fall into their own respective model camps at this point.
The placement of precip is generally similar however. NBM precip
accumulations are low. The probability of exceeding 0.25 inches of
precip is only about 15-25%. NBM precip type is primarily all rain
with this system with a low (10-15%) chance of snow and even lower
(%5 or less) chance of small pockets of freezing rain.

There should be a break Tuesday night and Wednesday as brief upper
level ridging returns. This will quickly be followed by the next low
pressure system tracking up from the southwest. This is a very
similar pattern to the Monday system, although perhaps a little more
upper level support/forcing along with the strong mid level warm air
advection. The surface low track (as it stands now anyway) might be
a little too far south to have a significant impact on our area
however. NBM is carrying 20-30% POPs and again, ptype probabilities
are all favoring a cold November rain as opposed to snow.

Beyond Thursday, models struggle with consensus on even the large
scale pattern. The workweek temperatures will generally range in the
40s and 50s, which is running 5 to 15 degrees above normal for this
time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. MVFR cigs have
developed way off in Montana and northwest North Dakota. Not
seeing any evidence in the latest guidance of these low clouds
finding their way into this forecast area. Nevertheless, will
continue to monitor things heading into Saturday morning. Light
rain has shifted down across northwest and north central South
Dakota, and should continue to propagate over into northeast South
Dakota over the next several hours. Prevailing light rain and
PROB30`s continue in the KMBG, KABR and KATY TAFs for this
precipitation.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...10