090
FXUS63 KABR 271939
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
239 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (less than 15%) for an isolated shower/strong
  thunderstorm or two today around the Watertown/Brookings areas.

- Increased chances for showers (40-65%) Friday night/Saturday
  with the higher moisture potential in western/south central
  South Dakota.

- Morning fog possible Thursday morning and Friday morning with
  visibility less than 2 miles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Weak thunderstorms have developed in western MN this afternoon along
a warm front that stretches back into east central SD. There is a
marginal risk that clips Deuel and Hamlin counties along this
boundary, but hi-res CAMs are all pretty consistent on keeping
further development in the cu field to the east and south of this
cwa. Will need to monitor but kept pops below a mention for now.
Generally benign conditions are expected through Friday afternoon
except for some morning fog that could be dense at times with
dewpoints in the 60s. A weak frontal boundary sets up along the
SD/NE border on Thursday, but any activity should remain away from
this forecast area.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase with shortwave energy and a
sfc low in northwest NE Friday afternoon and evening. The unsettled
weather spreads east and north Friday night into Saturday with mid
level low pressure along the Hwy 14 corridor. That 700 mb low along
with an upper low linger into Sunday across the east keeping some
precip and cooler temps in the forecast.

Northwest flow is then expected through the early part of next week
as a pronounced upper ridge sets up over the Rockies. Further
chances for precip return Tuesday night into Wednesday with more
autumn-like highs (60s to lower 70s - about 10 degrees below average
for early Sept) possible by Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through the
next 24 hours. KATY may see some MVFR fog briefly in the morning,
so added a tempo group at 12z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20