553
FXUS63 KABR 201115 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
515 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s through next Tuesday,
which is around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Warmest temperatures
will be this weekend.

- Turning markedly colder starting next Wednesday, as temperatures
tumble into the teens at night and 20s and 30s during the day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Update for 12Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

As of 2 AM, there is some patchy fog over south central SD and far
eastern SD. Temperatures around the area are in the mid 30s to
low 40s with winds out of the northwest generally less than 10
mph.

Not much going on in the short term. High pressure moves in today
and will stick around through the end of the period. Again,
temperatures are the main story. We will have some CAA move in today
ahead of the high pressure, which will result in high temps slightly
cooler today than Friday when we get a shot of WAA on the western
side of the high. We will also have a layer of clouds over most of
the area today which will limit daytime heating, although they are
expected to move out and diminish during the afternoon hours. Did
lower temps slightly to reflect this. Winds tonight are expected to
be calm with some clear skies, mainly over northern SD which could
give fog a chance to form.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The forecast period begins on Friday night with an upper level
trough off the coast of southern California, and a 150+ mph jet over
the British Columbia. The will leave the region under a modified
Pacific airmass through the weekend with highs the 40s and 50s.
These readings are 15 to 20 degrees above average for this time of
year.

The pattern will begin to change next week as several models and
ensembles support a negative Western Pacific Oscillation leading to
increasing forecast confidence for colder weather. Increasing upper
level heights over Alaska will cause troughing over the central US
with colder air filtering into the region from northern Canada.
However, models differ with the strong of the WPO, and thus the
depth of the colder airmass. A potential limiting factor is the lack
a snowpack across the Dakotas and southern Canada. Will a snow pack
develop ahead of coldest air remains to be seen. The ECMWF ensembles
are showing a 10 to 30 percent chance of three inches or more of
snowfall across North Dakota through Thanksgiving. The probabilities
do increase some across southern Canada. The GEFS shows a higher
probability of 3+ inches over northern ND and southern Canada, or 30
to 60 percent chance. The 7 day QPF from WPC, ending at 12Z
Thursday, show very little QPF across the Dakota, with some amounts
across southern Canada. While teleconnections favor colder air
arriving around Thanksgiving day, models and ensembles differ on a
storm system proceeding the cold air, and any potential travel
impacts for the Holiday weekend. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF
have flipped flopped from 24 hours ago, leading to a low forecaster
confidence with regards to pcpn chances next week. Stay tuned as the
forecast will continue evolving over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR conditions at all sites to start the morning with a cloud
deck moving into the region. Conditions are expected to improve
to VFR by the afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...13