401
FXUS63 KABR 141936
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
136 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s today, with
  record highs in jeopardy.

- Fire danger will be high/very high for south central South Dakota,
  particularly along and south of I90.

- Cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s this weekend, cooling even
  more into the 30s and 40s early next week.

- Rain/snow chances (30-50%) return Monday/Monday night, but many
  uncertainties in regards to system strength and overall
  precipitation placement/amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Temps have warmed well into the 70s across the far southwest CWA,
with winds gusting around 25 mph close to the White River. Will be
monitoring potential for Red Flag issuance this afternoon, but will
see if critical conditions expand much further north through
Lyman/Jones counties. If it stays rather localized to far southern
portions of that area, will likely refrain from headlines. RH down
that way ranging between 20 and 25 percent with readings likely to
drop a bit lower through the rest of the afternoon.

No changes to the rain chances (20-40%) across the northern CWA
tonight as the frontal boundary moves south through the area. Any
rainfall though will be very light and likely be less than a tenth.
Will be fighting dry air initially and will likely take until after
06Z for better saturation to develop.

With the Monday system, there`s still some uncertainty in regards to
the path of what now appears to be a potential closed 500mb low
moving east-northeast across the central/northern plains. Precip
placement still varies, but overall the ENS/GEFS show 24-hr mean
precip totals to be less than 0.25in. 90th percentile 24-hr QPF is
on the order of 0.25in - 0.40in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Although, will
be watching low potential for a band of MVFR CIGs Saturday morning
behind a passing cold front. Confidence on areal coverage of low,
but will take a deeper dive into the potential for the 00Z TAFs.
Otherwise, expecting a period of low-level wind shear (LLWS)
overnight and inserted mention of this. With the frontal passage
tonight, there may be a few -SHRA across northern SD, but
conditions likely remaining VFR within any -SHRA.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT