


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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300 FXUS63 KABR 140855 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 355 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of showers today into Wednesday, although limited impacts with most areas receiving a few hundredths (central SD) to perhaps 0.25-0.75in (east central SD). - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for isolated severe storms Wednesday night into Thursday morning over central SD. The main threats will be hail 1 inch in diameter and some wind gusts of 60 mph. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Surface high pressure is located north-northeast of the region early this morning, while scattered light showers move northeast across the CWA within the warm air advection regime aloft. Models continue to show highest coverage of showers across the eastern/southeastern CWA, so focused highest PoPs (60-80%) in this area through the daytime period today. Rainfall amounts don`t look to be too impressive, with amounts generally less than 0.25in across central SD, then ranging from 0.25in-0.75in across east-central SD. So, limited impacts with rainfall in the short term period. Additional chances for rain on Wednesday as the surface low begins to approach from the southwest, although it would appear better chances hold off until Wednesday night when thunderstorms across central SD also become possible. Temperatures will be cool today, with highs only ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s, thanks to abundant cloud cover and unfavorable warming winds from the east. Clouds will lower and thicken through the day and into the evening hours, with HREF cloud cover ensemble mean (low-level cloud cover) indicating low CIGs could still be around well into Wednesday, keeping highs in the 50s for many locations. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Wednesday night we are still under an upper level ridge with southwesterly flow aloft. A low is moving in from the southwest and moves across western SD late Thursday night into Friday morning. The lower level low moves across western SD during the day Thursday. The center of the low continues to move north and into Canada Friday. Saturday, models are showing a trough deepening to the south and back into the area, although this looks to bring a dry cold front. Sunday afternoon an upper level ridge moves into the region. This will be pushed out by another low moving in from the west on Tuesday. There are a couple chances for rain during the long term. The first will be showers Wednesday night into Thursday, the second will be early Tuesday morning through the end of the period. Wednesday night, rain chances range from 60-90% generally northwest of a line from Eureka to Pierre with 40-60% chances south and east of this line. NBM is showing probabilities of more than a quarter inch as 60- 80% in that area west of Eureka and Pierre, and more than a half inch as 50-70% along and west of the Missouri River. Most of this is expected to fall overnight Wednesday with light accumulations through the day Thursday as PoPs fall to 40-60% across the entire area. There is also some potential for severe thunderstorms into Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. SPC has highlighted central SD in a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for isolated severe storms with some hail of 1 inch in diameter and some gusts of 60 mph. Moving onto the Tuesday chances, this is still 7 days out so expect changes before we get there. At the moment, PoPs are still in the slight chance to chance categories at 15-25%. The probability of more than a quarter inch is around 20-25% across the entire forecast area. High temps on Thursday are expected to be the warmest of the period as we get some strong WAA with the southwesterly winds on the east side of the low. Highs are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s across most of the forecast area. This could change if the low moves farther east, but most of the models have been pretty consistent with low placement over western SD. Following this low, we get some cooler air moving in for a few days as we stay in northwesterly to westerly flow. Sunday, our winds circle around to the south once more as some high pressure moves across to our south and as the low moves in from the west for Tuesday. This will bring our highs up slightly, but only into the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions initially with CIGs running between 10-12kft at the start of the TAF period. Showers will spread across the CWA, though with mainly a 30-50% coverage at best meaning much of the TAF periods will be covered with PROB30. KATY is expected to have the highest coverage and thus showers as predominant conditions. Otherwise, VSBY will at times lower to MVFR, while the trend is for CIGs to slowly drop, eventually down to MVFR and possibly IFR after 00Z. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...TMT/06