678
FXUS63 KABR 220615
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
115 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions will continue through next Wednesday with
temperatures around average for this time of year.

- There is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the
day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to
northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a
50-70% chance.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather
Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief heavy
rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will be the main
concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 60s with
winds out of the north to northeast at generally less than 10 mph.
Today will be pretty similar to the last few days with some showers
and maybe some weak thunderstorms across central SD after midnight
and into Sunday. These storms are expected to continue through the
day Sunday, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
storms. This outlook may be upgraded in future forecasts. The main
threats look to be hail and wind. The NAM Nest in particular looks
to have a bit of a bowing formation to the storms later in the
evening which could produce some stronger winds.

The environment for those storms will be rather moist. PWAT values
are again in the 99th to 99.5th NAEFS percentile and 1.5" over
central SD. This could lead to some heavy rainfall during storms.
Models are starting to increase MLCAPE with generally 1100-1200
J/kg. Lapse rates have actually come down a little in deterministic
models. Looking at Monday, PWAT isn`t as impressive but MLCAPE
values are between 1200 and 1500 J/kg with lapse rates between 7 and
7.5 C/km.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain around average with
highs in the 80s. Not too much in the way of smoke today, but there
is a narrow band of some increased concentrations over the Missouri
River valley. This would just bring a slight haze to the skies,
nothing is expected to reach the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period
as a high pressure ridge remains over the area. As the ridge
shifts east through Saturday evening, expect increasing high
clouds and the potential for showers and thunderstorms in
central SD in the 6-12 hours after the current TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SRF