652
FXUS63 KABR 141432
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
932 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of showers today into Wednesday, although limited impacts
  with most areas receiving a few hundredths (central SD) to
  perhaps 0.25-0.75in (east central SD).

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for isolated severe
  storms Wednesday night into Thursday morning over central SD.
  The main threats will be hail 1 inch in diameter and some wind
  gusts of 60 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Updates this morning have been to align with the latest radar
trends, slowing down precipitation over north central SD and a
slightly quicker exit over portions of central SD this afternoon.
Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Surface high pressure is located north-northeast of the region early
this morning, while scattered light showers move northeast across
the CWA within the warm air advection regime aloft. Models continue
to show highest coverage of showers across the eastern/southeastern
CWA, so focused highest PoPs (60-80%) in this area through the
daytime period today. Rainfall amounts don`t look to be too
impressive, with amounts generally less than 0.25in across central
SD, then ranging from 0.25in-0.75in across east-central SD. So,
limited impacts with rainfall in the short term period. Additional
chances for rain on Wednesday as the surface low begins to approach
from the southwest, although it would appear better chances hold off
until Wednesday night when thunderstorms across central SD also
become possible.

Temperatures will be cool today, with highs only ranging from the
upper 40s to mid 50s, thanks to abundant cloud cover and unfavorable
warming winds from the east. Clouds will lower and thicken through
the day and into the evening hours, with HREF cloud cover ensemble
mean (low-level cloud cover) indicating low CIGs could still be
around well into Wednesday, keeping highs in the 50s for many
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Wednesday night we are still under an upper level ridge with
southwesterly flow aloft. A low is moving in from the southwest and
moves across western SD late Thursday night into Friday morning. The
lower level low moves across western SD during the day Thursday. The
center of the low continues to move north and into Canada Friday.
Saturday, models are showing a trough deepening to the south and
back into the area, although this looks to bring a dry cold front.
Sunday afternoon an upper level ridge moves into the region. This
will be pushed out by another low moving in from the west on
Tuesday.

There are a couple chances for rain during the long term. The first
will be showers Wednesday night into Thursday, the second will be
early Tuesday morning through the end of the period. Wednesday
night, rain chances range from 60-90% generally northwest of a line
from Eureka to Pierre with 40-60% chances south and east of this
line. NBM is showing probabilities of more than a quarter inch as 60-
80% in that area west of Eureka and Pierre, and more than a half
inch as 50-70% along and west of the Missouri River. Most of this is
expected to fall overnight Wednesday with light accumulations
through the day Thursday as PoPs fall to 40-60% across the entire
area. There is also some potential for severe thunderstorms into
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. SPC has highlighted
central SD in a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for isolated severe
storms with some hail of 1 inch in diameter and some gusts of 60
mph. Moving onto the Tuesday chances, this is still 7 days out so
expect changes before we get there. At the moment, PoPs are still in
the slight chance to chance categories at 15-25%. The probability of
more than a quarter inch is around 20-25% across the entire forecast
area.

High temps on Thursday are expected to be the warmest of the period
as we get some strong WAA with the southwesterly winds on the east
side of the low. Highs are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s
across most of the forecast area. This could change if the low moves
farther east, but most of the models have been pretty consistent
with low placement over western SD. Following this low, we get some
cooler air moving in for a few days as we stay in northwesterly to
westerly flow. Sunday, our winds circle around to the south once
more as some high pressure moves across to our south and as the low
moves in from the west for Tuesday. This will bring our highs up
slightly, but only into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR clouds to start off the TAF period, with areas of -SHRA/SHRA.
VSBY may drop to MVFR at times in areas of SHRA. Highest coverage
of precipitation today expected in the KATY region. CIGs will
gradually lower to MVFR and eventually IFR through the TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...TMT