911
FXUS63 KABR 280205 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
905 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (less than 15%) for an isolated shower/strong
  thunderstorm or two today around the Watertown/Brookings areas.

- Increased chances for showers (40-65%) Friday night/Saturday
  with the higher moisture potential in western/south central
  South Dakota.

- Morning fog possible Thursday morning and Friday morning with
  visibility less than 2 miles.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Not anticipating any significant changes to the forecast going
into the overnight period. There`s really only one thing of
concern and that is fog development. Still expecting our eastern
zones will see it set in early Thursday morning. It could become
dense at times, especially around the Watertown/Big Sioux
Valley/Glacial Lakes areas, but even as far west as parts of the
James Valley too. So, we`ll continue to monitor observations and
trends heading into the late night hours for any changes that may
need to be made.

UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Weak thunderstorms have developed in western MN this afternoon along
a warm front that stretches back into east central SD. There is a
marginal risk that clips Deuel and Hamlin counties along this
boundary, but hi-res CAMs are all pretty consistent on keeping
further development in the cu field to the east and south of this
cwa. Will need to monitor but kept pops below a mention for now.
Generally benign conditions are expected through Friday afternoon
except for some morning fog that could be dense at times with
dewpoints in the 60s. A weak frontal boundary sets up along the
SD/NE border on Thursday, but any activity should remain away from
this forecast area.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase with shortwave energy and a
sfc low in northwest NE Friday afternoon and evening. The unsettled
weather spreads east and north Friday night into Saturday with mid
level low pressure along the Hwy 14 corridor. That 700 mb low along
with an upper low linger into Sunday across the east keeping some
precip and cooler temps in the forecast.

Northwest flow is then expected through the early part of next week
as a pronounced upper ridge sets up over the Rockies. Further
chances for precip return Tuesday night into Wednesday with more
autumn-like highs (60s to lower 70s - about 10 degrees below average
for early Sept) possible by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will generally remain the prevailing weather
through this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds tonight through
Thursday morning will allow some fog to develop overnight. MVFR
vsbys will be possible at KATY and perhaps to a lesser extent at
KABR. Included a mention of some BR at both terminals in tempo
groups prior to and after 12Z Thursday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...Vipond