321
FXUS63 KABR 062321
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
621 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds will be out of the south to southeast, with gusts
  of 30 to 50 mph over central South Dakota this afternoon and
  west of Interstate 29 Sunday afternoon. Highest gusts will be
  over portions of north central South Dakota, with locally
  higher gusts possible.

- Thunderstorms return to the area Sunday evening through Sunday
  night. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
  weather along and northwest of a line from Eureka to Murdo
  with an Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) in portions of Corson and Dewey
  county. There is a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) as far east as the
  Sisseton Hills. Main threats include large hail (golfball) and
  70 mph wind gusts.

- Severe thunderstorms return Tuesday and Wednesday with a
  Slight Risk across the region on Tuesday and along and east of
  the James Valley on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The ongoing forecast remains in good shape. We`ll be monitoring
the winds over Corson/Dewey Counties this evening to see if the
ongoing Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire early. Currently
though, the Grand River RAWS is still gusting to 46 mph.

UPDATE for 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

High pressure across the Great Lakes and sfc low pressure over the
Rockies is tightening the pressure gradient across South Dakota
today to about 16 mb by 21z. South to southeast winds will increase
accordingly by late afternoon especially across north central SD
where winds may gust to 50 mph. The mitigating factor will be the
lack of any cold air advection, but the 40 to 50 kt llj this evening
should compensate.

The story is much the same for Sunday, though only with a 12 mb
gradient as the low moves into western SD. As it pushes east, shear
will increase along with moisture convergence. The increased
instability migrates east with the low Sunday night into early
Monday morning with a marginal to enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk for
severe storms. The slight risk extends northwest of a line from
Murdo to Eureka with the enhanced risk over portions of Corson and
Dewey county. The marginal risk is as far east as the Sisseton
Hills. All threats are possible, but strong winds and large hail are
most likely outside of the enhanced risk area. Would not be
surprised to see this system develop into an MCS as it propagates
farther east late Sunday night.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler behind the front/low on Monday,
but the respite will be brief as 90s surge back in for Tuesday. Will
need to watch heat indices on Tuesday for potential headlines as
"feels-like" temps could push above 100 south of Hwy 14. The main
concern Tuesday and into Wednesday focuses on another cold front
moving across the region, impacting central SD from around 21z
Tuesday. A 60 to 70 kt jet streak and shortwave energy moving
through the upper trough will help enhance instability around the
sfc front. For the moment, a slight risk is anticipated to cover the
entire cwa on Tuesday with Wednesday`s slight risk primarily over
and east of the James Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. The main
concern will be strong winds with gusts of 30-40kts for
ABR/PIR/MBG from late morning through the afternoon. Low level
wind shear was included at PIR with winds out of the south
gusting to 40kts just above the surface 07-13Z Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for SDZ003-015.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20