667
FXUS63 KABR 021939
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
239 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal this
  weekend into most of next week.

- There is a 20-50 percent chance for showers on Saturday, otherwise
  the rest of the weekend through most of next week will be dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A northwest flow aloft pattern will persist across the Northern
Plains this weekend into most of next week. A series of weak upper
level waves will pass through this flow leading to a rollercoaster
temperature pattern of sorts over the course of the next several
days. Sfc high pressure exits east tonight. A fairly healthy
southerly return flow has set up across central SD this afternoon
and will traverse east tonight. Temperatures will not be quite as
cool overnight as they were this morning with readings in the mid
40s to low 50s. South to southwest flow ahead of the first upper
wave will start us off Saturday. Sfc low pressure and associated
cold front approach the area by morning. Timing of the fropa closer
to midday or afternoon should be enough to bump of 850mb temps into
the low to mid teens C. This translates into highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Thickening cloud cover will accompany this fropa along
with a 20-50 percent chance of showers. Moisture looks limited so
expect hit and miss variety shower where not everyone sees rainfall.

Winds turn northwest behind the front and become gusty up to 25-40
mph during the afternoon across central SD and as far east as the
James Valley. We cold advect Saturday night as sfc high pressure
begins to build in. With the high to our west and northwest most of
Saturday night into Sunday should help to prevent any significant
temperature falls to frosty levels. The weekend will finish on a dry
and cooler note but with readings still near normal for early
October. The high will exit to our east come Monday and we`ll be
back to strong southerly flow and a warm air advection pattern.
Expecting temperatures through the early to middle portion of next
week to warm back above normal with daytime highs in the 70s.
Tuesday still appears that it will be the warmest day of the next
several with readings in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs will persist at KABR/KATY through most of the afternoon
as a few sprinkles or brief showers work through northeast SD.
KPIR has already scattered out its ceiling and KMBG will hang
onto VFR cigs until closer to mid afternoon. Southeast winds
will be gusty at KPIR/KMBG through this afternoon ranging
between 25-30 kts. KABR/KATY will see southeast winds pick up
later this afternoon into tonight. Low level winds shear (LLWS)
will remain possible at KABR/KATY/KPIR terminals late this
evening through early to mid morning Saturday as a low level jet
sets up across parts of central and northeast SD. Expecting a
wind shift from the south-southwest to the northwest late in
this forecast cycle.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond