990
FXUS63 KABR 142335
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
635 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across central into east central/southeast SD tonight. Main
  threat is marginally severe hail around quarter size.

- Strong to severe storms possible Sunday and Monday as Slight risk
  area (threat level 2 of 5) pushes eastward through the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The chance of precipitation was diminished through the rest of the
evening hours, with only a few small showers expected over our
southern counties. The CAMs continue to be spotty at best, but do
show overnight showers and thunderstorms sliding mainly west of
the county warning area by 03Z moving into our counties along the
MO River by 07Z and over the central forecast area by around 11Z.
There are still significant differences in the timing and
intensity to result in a lower confidence forecast, even for the
next 12-18 hours. As a result, we will be continuing to monitor
the model and satellite/radar trends and update the forecast as
needed is showers and a few storms moving into the area earlier
than forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Still dealing with the vort/energy tracking eastward along the ND/SD
border and has initiated a fair amount of coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the eastern CWA this afternoon. Don`t expect
much in the way of severe storms with this as instability is
lacking, but areas of heavy rain are occurring, in either the same
areas, or just south of the same areas that received heavy rainfall
the other day. So, keeping a close eye on this region, but at least
there is some movement to the storms, even though some back-building
features are noted at times. Will be keeping in mind the potential
for a flood watch for perhaps Brown county eastward to west central
MN if it appears any additional heavy rain in the coming days
appears to be a threat. This activity this afternoon has some
movement to it, and radar 1-hr estimates are around 0.50-0.75in.
Current 1-hr flash flood guidance is on the order of 2 to 3 inches.

As for the clouds, we`re finally starting to see some appreciable
clearing across the southern CWA into the James River valley,
although areas along Hwy 12 over towards the I-29 corridor are still
stuck in cloud cover. Satellite trends continue to suggest slow
erosion ongoing for some areas, but not all. Models continue to
suggest clouds filling back in overnight, with potential for fog
once again, so followed suit in the grids/forecast.

Still expecting an increase in shower/thunderstorm chances overnight
across the CWA, but not great model agreement in overall coverage
and placement of precipitation. There is a weak/moderate low-level
jet that develops overnight which should aid in potential for
development. Mean MUCAPE values off the HREF tonight are on the
order of 1000-2000 J/KG. There could be marginally severe hail
(around quarter size) with any of the cells that develop overnight.

Better threat for severe storms looks to be Sunday night. Better low-
level moisture moves into the area on Sunday with surface dewpoints
forecast to reach the 60s. Models suggest perhaps a quicker clearing
to any morning cloud cover, but this will certainly have to be
watched closely. CAMs suggest perhaps a late show for our CWA, with
most activity during the afternoon developing well west of the CWA
across eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas, then pushing eastward
into the evening/overnight hours. Signals suggest potential for an
MCS to track eastward across the Dakotas as well, but placement is
still in question. Threat for severe storms continues on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions have temporarily returned to MBG/PIR/ATY. However,
the lower ceilings will quickly return over the next few hours,
with MVFR to IFR conditions dominating much of the next 24 hours.
A lower confidence forecast remains with the timing and intensity
of nearing showers and thunderstorms late this evening and
overnight that are currently forecast to be near PIR/MBG by 07Z
and over ABR and ATY by around 11Z. Given the lower confidence,
any mention of TS has been taken out. Fog will still be a concern
overnight at ATY with IFR ceilings and possibly visibility.
Elsewhere, mainly patchy fog is expected late tonight into mid
morning Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...06