802
FXUS63 KABR 031755 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1255 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke, both aloft and near the surface, will impact the region
  today and then return again Thursday before clearing out.

- Temperatures some 10 to 20 degrees below normal for the rest of
  the week. Low temperatures to be impacted, including upper 30s
  for some areas tonight, and again Friday night and Saturday
  night.

- Northwest wind gusts on Thursday could ramp up to 45 mph or
  higher, creating a potential travel hazard for high profile
  vehicles.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Wildfire smoke continues to move southward and fill into a
portions of central SD and most of northeast SD and west central
MN. Local and upstream visibilities have been lowering into the
2-4 mile range at several observations points in the area. This
sfc smoke will more or less be with us through the late afternoon
and early evening hours before thinning out as the higher
concentrations exit our area farther to the south.

The last of the shower activity in central SD is exiting the I-90
corridor. Drier conditions will set in for the remainder of the
day there. Added some widely scattered afternoon showers across
parts of northeast SD and west central MN as a decaying frontal
boundary and some weak s/w energy rotate through our far eastern
zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

At 3 AM CDT, skies are partly to mostly cloudy but the clearing line
isn`t too far away in North Dakota (headed this direction).
Scattered rain showers continue across central and north central
South Dakota, as well. Temperatures are holding in the 50s and 60s,
despite the low level CAA occurring on northerly winds of 10 to 20
mph with some gusts up to 30 mph at times. Visibility (in smoke) is
also falling across the northern tier counties of the CWA.

This developing/deepening upper level cut-off/closed low-upper level
trof over the Great Lakes region will be taking center stage in
the forecast for the next couple of days. By Friday night, it is
beginning to shift a bit further east toward the Atlantic Coast,
and the overall upper pattern becomes a positive PNA pattern
(northwest flow aloft) until about Monday morning. The western
CONUS upper level ridge begins to propagate eastward, reaching the
northern plains/upper midwest by the middle of next week.

The latest HRRR/RRFS output continues the near surface (and aloft)
smoke across the CWA through early this afternoon before clearing it
out this evening/early overnight. Visibilities falling to 2-4sm in
smoke today is not out of the question. However, heading into
Thursday out ahead of the next strong cold frontal passage, low
level winds become southwesterly, potentially advecting some of this
near surface smoke back up into the CWA through late Thursday
afternoon/early Thursday evening before clearing it out of the CWA,
again. Smoke aloft appears to be following a similar advection
pattern over the next couple of days, with no smoke (near surface or
aloft) showing up in the smoke models` output beyond Thursday night.

When this next northwest flow (clipper) system comes screaming
through the region on Thursday, the strength of post-cold frontal
winds in model progs/guidance and ensemble probabilities suggests a
wind advisory will be needed; probably needing hoisted within the
next 12 to 24 hours. The potential for measurable has increased
since 24 hours ago, across the eastern third of the CWA on Thursday,
particularly the 18Z Thursday to 00Z Friday timeframe.

Lastly, this pattern is drawing anomalously cold air into the CWA,
with low temperature guidance now showcasing lows dipping into the
upper 30s, for some, later tonight and again Friday night and again
Saturday night. If this cooling trend persists, may have to start
the frost conversation?

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Wildfire smoke continues to drift across the area this afternoon
and is likely going to continue to contribute to MVFR vsbys at all
terminals through late afternoon or early evening, depending on
location. As far as cigs go, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the next 24 hours. Although, wouldn`t be surprised
to see some high end MVFR conditions developing this afternoon in
the KABR/KATY areas. The smoke will clear out of the area
temporarily overnight, but return by late in this TAF cycle at
KPIR/KMBG. An incoming clipper like system begins to move into the
central Dakotas late in this forecast period, increasing winds
from the west to southwest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Vipond