497
FXUS63 KABR 040539 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1139 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures (5-15 degrees) continue through
  Thursday/Thursday night.

- More seasonal, with near to slightly below normal temperatures for
  the upcoming weekend.

- Still low confidence in track/timing associated with a Clipper
  system for the weekend. Chances for moisture (20-40%) include
  both rain and snow potential. Additional forecast concerns
  includes winds in excess of 45 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 830 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Forecast appears on track for the overnight hours with little in
the way of changes. Will keep up with sky conditions as the
mid/high clouds pass overhead. Southerly winds will continue to
become better established overnight as the surface ridge axis moves
east and away from the region. Lows in some areas may end up
getting colder than forecast by a couple/few degrees, depending
on how quickly the southerly winds develop and also the thickness
of mid/high cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Low level westerly flow has allowed temperatures to overachieve but
as the ridge axis moves overhead, winds go slack. A dry atmosphere
with light winds and only high clouds translates to ideal
radiational conditions. High clouds coming up from the south, and
increasing low level flow out of the south as the high continues
east means temperatures will stall during the early morning hours.

Surface low pressure moves across the Dakotas for Tuesday. This
system is mainly dry, with just some mid-level clouds above 8-12kft
hugging the northern tier of the state. Frontal passage again in the
afternoon, with the core of the coldest temperatures moving overhead
about 12Z Wednesday. Mixing winds are most prevalent overnight
Tuesday. NAM BUFKIT mixed winds show up to 30-35kts with a 10mb
gradient from west to east across the state. Will bump up winds
above NBM for Tuesday night in response.

Surface high is overhead for Wednesday. As that high moves east,
once again southerly return flow has winds again on the increase. 14-
16mb gradient across the state this time, with 1/2km winds in the
GFS increased to 35-40kts.

The clipper that follows Thursday is dry at passage, with some wrap
around cold advection low saturation and possibly instability. Given
timescales will stick with NBM (below mention) POPs and continue to
evaluate. NBM probabilities of measuring is still only 10% up in the
far northeast, however there are a handful of ensembles that do
bring a hundredth or two to the northeast.

Main focus is on what happens for the weekend, as we see a shift in
the pattern. Thursdays is the last of these mild and dry types of
clippers as the eastern CONUS trough deepens with an amplification
of a western CONUS ridge. That sets us up for a colder, Canadian
airmass moving into the Western Lakes region and backdoor stalled
frontal boundary across the Dakotas late Friday. The clipper, coming
down from Canada as per the storm track, rides along the boundary
meaning we will have both warm and cold advection regimes going on
ahead and behind as it moves overhead to influence the precipitation
type. Not a lot of confidence, as per normal for this type of
system and layout, this far out. That said, a number of
ensembles, particularly among the EC members, do have some light
snow accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Still seeing
low-level wind shear conditions possible at KPIR overnight and
even in the KABR region during the wee hours of Tuesday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...TMT