043
FXUS63 KABR 172330
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
530 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will mainly be in the 40s through next Monday.

- Rain will spread across central to northeastern South Dakota and
west central Minnesota tonight, before ending Tuesday morning. Cold
air overnight will result of a wintry mix of rain and snow over
mainly east central South Dakota. The highest snow amounts of around
1-2" is expected over Deuel County, with a light icing of freezing
rain over the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

No changes just yet aside from the addition to some fog for the
Pierre area. I`m sure there will be more updates this evening as
the band of rain migrates northwards, stalls-pivots slights, then
experiences a period of transition to rain/snow or just snow
before propagating east and weakening. See below for update to
the aviation discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The latest surface weather map shows low pressure over far
northeastern WY and another low over central KS. Also of note is an
elongated area of high pressure stretching from north central Canada
through northeastern MT/WI. Ahead of the low, a large swath of thick
clouds has moved over South Dakota. We`re starting to see a
convective look to some of these clouds near and west of PIR, which
is expected. So far today, most of the thunderstorm activity has
been over southeastern SD (and briefly west of Jones county prior to
20Z). Thunderstorms will remain possible over our southern counties
into the early evening hours, with most of any thunderstorm activity
remaining to our south/east.

By 03Z the 2 surface lows will organize across central to eastern
NE/KS, with the pivoting band of rain currently from around PIR to
southeastern SD expanding north to our northern SD counties. Just
how far north the rain can get is a bit of an unknown/lower
confidence. While areas near the ND/SD border may stay dry tonight,
it can`t be completely ruled out that light rain occurs.

The highest amounts of precipitation will be from from Highmore and
Gettysburg east through Watertown and Clear Lake, with amounts
generally around a quarter to three quarters of an inch. Cold air
moving in early Tuesday morning will result in a wintry mix of rain
and snow over east central South Dakota, and even a light icing of
freezing rain (around a trace to 0.03") over the eastern slopes of
the Prairie Coteau from near Summit through South Shore. The highest
chances for accumulating snow will be over east central South
Dakota, with snowfall amounts of around 1 to 2 inches will be across
Deuel County. While most of the snow will quickly melt as it touches
the wet and warm ground over east central South Dakota, a quick
burst of snow could result in brief slushy roads. Precipitation will
come to an end over central South Dakota by 09Z and over eastern
South Dakota and west central Minnesota by 16Z as the surface high
to our northeast will push a ridge into our forecast area.

Temperatures over eastern SD will warm into the upper 30s to low 40s
by early Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A band of rainfall, with MVFR/IFR CIGS and MVFR VISBY is moving
through KPIR and towards KATY. Uncertain if the VISBY from
rainfall will get into KABR and even less so for KMBG. More
confident in the lower CIGS. There may be a period for KATY in
which the precipitation changes to a mix of rain/snow or even just
snow. Late in the TAF period we can expect a transition towards
more VFR CIGS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...07