800
FXUS63 KABR 150204 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
804 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s this weekend, cooling even
  more into the 30s and 40s early next week.

- Rain/snow chances (30-50%) return Monday/Monday night, but many
  uncertainties in regards to system strength and overall
  precipitation placement/amounts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Currently, got a cold front working southeast through the region.
There is some strong mid-level (700-500hpa) forcing coupled with
a 110-130+knot upper level (300-200hpa) jet streak over
western/central North Dakota extending down into western South
Dakota, as well. The net result is light to moderate banded rain
extending from northwest South Dakota up into central North
Dakota. During the next 12 hours, these features will shift east
toward the border of Minnesota and the Dakotas. Eventually, PoPs
may have to be extended further south across the CWA. Measurable
precipitation (0.01in or greater) still appears feasible mainly
across the northern tier counties of north central and northeast
South Dakota/west central Minnesota. No changes planned to
overnight temperatures right now. Monitoring for the potential
need to drag small measurable PoPs southward across the CWA for
the overnight hours.

UPDATE Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Temps have warmed well into the 70s across the far southwest CWA,
with winds gusting around 25 mph close to the White River. Will be
monitoring potential for Red Flag issuance this afternoon, but will
see if critical conditions expand much further north through
Lyman/Jones counties. If it stays rather localized to far southern
portions of that area, will likely refrain from headlines. RH down
that way ranging between 20 and 25 percent with readings likely to
drop a bit lower through the rest of the afternoon.

No changes to the rain chances (20-40%) across the northern CWA
tonight as the frontal boundary moves south through the area. Any
rainfall though will be very light and likely be less than a tenth.
Will be fighting dry air initially and will likely take until after
06Z for better saturation to develop.

With the Monday system, there`s still some uncertainty in regards to
the path of what now appears to be a potential closed 500mb low
moving east-northeast across the central/northern plains. Precip
placement still varies, but overall the ENS/GEFS show 24-hr mean
precip totals to be less than 0.25in. 90th percentile 24-hr QPF is
on the order of 0.25in - 0.40in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Will watch the
guidance/satellite/obs for low probability of a band of MVFR CIGs
developing/moving into the forecast area Saturday morning behind
a passing cold front. Confidence on areal coverage is low, but
will take a deeper dive into the potential for the 06Z TAFs.
Sticking with the potential for a period of low-level wind shear
(LLWS) tonight in association with a cold frontal passage. Already
seeing two different bands of light to moderate rain falling over
western North Dakota. There may be enough post-frontal banded-type
forcing across northern SD later tonight to produce some of this
light to moderate rain over the KMBG and KABR terminals. PROB30`s
have been introduced for this potential.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10