372
FXUS63 KABR 291916
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
216 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may develop overnight tonight into early Friday
morning. The main areas of concern will be over parts of north
central South Dakota and the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills.
Visibility may drop to a mile or less at times.

- Rain showers move over the forecast area Friday evening into
Saturday morning. There is a 10 to 40 percent chance to see a tenth
of an inch of rain through that time frame.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Sunday night through
Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Pains. While there
is low confidence in timing and amounts at this time, the chance to
see an inch of rain ranges from 30 to 60 percent, with the highest
over south central South Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light rain showers continue to traverse across north central and
into northeastern South Dakota this afternoon. A layer of dry air in
the lower levels means that rain has struggles to reach the surface
at times, but the strongest showers have dropped a trace to a couple
hundredths of rain in their wake. Expectations for the next couple
of hours is that these virga to occasional light showers will
continue to struggle to get rain to the surface as they push north
and east this afternoon.

Overnight tonight, there are some signals for another round of fog
development. Confidence is highest over parts of north central South
Dakota where full humidity recovery is expected for an extended
period tonight. Weak easterly flow will also help due to gradual
terrain increases providing a bit of an upslope effect in that area.
Coverage of fog is expected to be fairly patchy, but there is some
signal for visibility to drop below a mile at times. The other
potential area of concern would be localized areas on the eastern
edge of the Prairie Coteau, where upslope impacts once again assist
in fog formation. Confidence is perhaps a bit lower in that area,
but visibility may still drop to a mile at times.

The next round of precipitation will move into the area Friday into
Saturday. Showers will move up into central South Dakota during the
late afternoon to evening hours before spreading to the entire
forecast area overnight and exiting to the east Saturday morning. In
general rain rates with these showers will be light, and most areas
will see just a few hundredths. Latest probabilities to see a tenth
of an inch range from 10-40 percent, increasing as you move from
north to south across the forecast area. Can`t entirely rule out a
weak thunderstorm out of this system, but a mid-level inversion
around 750mb will likely limit the growth of these showers.

A Colorado Low will track into the region early next week, bringing
another round of precipitation into the area. Overnight lows in the
upper 30s to 40s support this precipitation being all rain with this
system. Current expectations are that precipitation will move in
Monday morning over central South Dakota, spreading across the rest
of the forecast area the rest of Monday and into Tuesday. The bulk
of the rain is expected through Tuesday morning, and the chances to
see an inch of rain or more through that time period ranges from 30
to 60 percent, increasing moving from northwest to southeast across
the forecast area. There is still a high degree of spread still
based on uncertainty in the timing and track of the low. Notably,
the Euro ensemble tracks the low pressure center just a bit further
north than other ensembles do, which would result in the Aberdeen
forecast area trending towards higher rainfall totals through the
event.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

This afternoon, main aviation concern is some light showers making
their way across north central and into northeastern South Dakota.
Under the strongest showers, a brief reduction to MVFR visibilities
may be possible, and have included a TEMPO group at KABR to
highlight this potential. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through this afternoon and evening, with the only other potential
concern being wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots over central and north
central South Dakota this afternoon.

Overnight tonight, chances for fog will return. The main area of
concern will be over  parts of north central South Dakota. While fog
is expected to be patchy, visibility may drop to MVFR or IFR status
at times. A TEMPO ground in the KMBG TAF has been introduced at this
time to cover the potential for reductions, but confidence is still
somewhat low. The other potential area of concern for fog
development will be on the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills, where
upslope flow will assist in fog formation. This fog is not
anticipated to impact any TAF sites at this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC