801
FXUS63 KABR 160854
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
354 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an Enhanced risk (3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across east central South Dakota today, and a Slight risk (2 out
  of 5) for severe thunderstorms across west central Minnesota
  back through south central South Dakota this afternoon into
  early this evening. Large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or
  two are all possible severe weather threats this afternoon and
  evening.

- Temperatures are forecast to warm to 10 to 20 degrees above
  normal by the end of the week, where there is a 40 to 60
  percent chance temperatures could climb to or above 100F
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

At 3 AM CDT, showers and thunderstorms are moving east and northeast
through the CWA. Some of this convection has been warned at times
for large hail or strong winds (or both). A bowing line segment that
was working into Corson County earlier, has diminished some in
intensity. But, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are
expected to persist for a few more hours early this morning. At
times, sub-synoptic winds influenced by these early morning
thunderstorms had been gusting in excess of 60mph. Wind speeds have
come down some now, but some areas of central South Dakota are still
gusting up to 45 mph. Temperatures are running generally in the 60s
this morning. Winds are chaotic at this time.

Overall, the steering flow pattern through the end of the upcoming
weekend over the CONUS is dominated by an upper level ridging
pattern (particularly over this CWA). Upper level longwave troffing
develops across the western third of the CONUS late in the period.
It`s a low to moderate amplitude ridge pattern for the most part,
with multiple smaller transient mid-level shortwaves of low pressure
progged to move west to east across the region, the strongest of
these impulses appearing to move through on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
The synoptic-scale pattern through today supports gulf moisture
remaining in place over the region, meaning surface dewpoints, at
least, in the 60s over the CWA and plenty of instability 2500+ J/kg
CAPE at peak heating time through this afternoon.

The SPC Day 1 outlook has the southern and eastern portions of the
CWA in a slight risk for severe weather, with the far southeastern
couple of counties included in an area of enhanced risk. The current
convection will probably generate, for a third consecutive day, an
MCV that will spin across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota from
mid-morning through late afternoon, creating its own little region
of maximized WAA-forcing and UVV`s for shower/thunderstorm
generation. Depending on the amount of boundary layer recovery that
can be had today, thunderstorms may be able to develop along a
boundary that is forecast to extend down across northeast South
Dakota, and back across south central South Dakota by the end of
peak heating today. Deep layer instability/shear should be
sufficient to support super-cellular convective mode, if any storms
can get going along this boundary later today. Low level conditions
capable of supporting a tornado or two does not look as good for
today as it did yesterday for today. But, progs still support a
marginal tornado risk between 19Z and 23Z out across the far
southeastern forecast zones (between Watertown and Brookings), and
perhaps trailing back into Buffalo and Hand counties through early
this evening. Otherwise, the next discernible mid-level shortwave of
interest over northern Nevada appears to be heading for southern
Idaho/southwestern Montana early this morning, and should time
itself out into the northern high plains region of
southern/southeastern Montana over into northeast Wyoming by late
this evening. Some of this convection may once again spill over
into, mainly, the west river forecast zones of this CWA later
tonight into early Tuesday morning.

This boundary that moves through today should scour out the higher
end low level moisture content, at least, for a couple of days. So,
while the severe thunderstorm potential wanes considerably for
Tuesday through Thursday, there could still be a couple of chances
for rain. More than likely, though, while high pressure at the
surface, and aloft, is over the region, dry condition through the
middle of the week stand a better chance of happening. Return flow
sets up Thursday night and allows for a return of higher amounts of
moisture in the low levels for the weekend, and likely, better
chances for showers/thunderstorms over the weekend.

Low level thermal progs still show a steady diet of warming
conditions underneath this ridge aloft for the second half of the
week into this upcoming weekend. Later in the period, low level
thermal progs and ensemble S.A. table temperature anomalies do
indicate that some fairly toasty temperatures are on the way for the
end of the week, into the weekend. High temperatures should easily
exceed the 90 degree threshold across portions of the CWA Friday and
Saturday. Right now, the probability of temperatures reaching or
exceeding 100F degrees is appx 40-60 percent south of U.S. Highway
212.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Still VFR (for the most part) at 06Z. Look for deteriorating
conditions after 06-08Z over central SD as strong to severe
thunderstorms move in from the west/northwest. Currently, KPIR
could experience some thunderstorm gusts up to 45 knots. But, if
convection recycles/strengthens over the next few hours,
convective gusts in excess of 50 knots will be possible. Large
hail (GR) is also possible. These weather types are included in
the KPIR TAF. They are also included in the KMBG TAF, where the
probability of higher thunderstorm gusts (in excess of 60 knots)
exists. Confidence is lower at other locations (KABR/KATY), with
only -shra/tsra mentioned at KABR at this time, and closer to 12Z.
Will add into the KATY TAF later if it looks like showers/storms
may be able to make it all the way there. Later Monday afternoon,
convection may develop at/near the KATY terminal for a couple of
hours before precipitation threat moves south/east out of the
area.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10