144
FXUS63 KABR 051552 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few spotty thunderstorms are possible over portions of
  northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota this afternoon
  through the early evening. While no severe weather is
  anticipated, some storms could produce pea size hail and wind
  gusts of 50 with any stronger storm.

- A lull in precipitation expected tonight through Saturday night
  with the return of shower and thunderstorms Sunday and
  periodically through next week.

- A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the 90s
  this weekend, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early
  June.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Forecast remains on track for this afternoon and evening.
Isolated to scattered shower and storm development is possible
this afternoon into the evening, settling down once the sun
sets. Most storms will be sub severe, with hail less than an
inch and wind gusts less than 50 mph. However, with northwest
flow in the mid-level moving cooler air in, a storm or two could
develop hail up around an inch or so in diameter.

UPDATE Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

As of 1am, lingering rain and sub severe thunderstorms continue over
portions of south central though east central SD and southward. This
entire cluster of convection continues to track east. Heavy
rains overnight has resulted in some flooding with an Areal
Flood Warning in effect over southern Hyde and southwestern Hand
Counties.

Mainly zonal flow continues aloft over the Northern Plains early
with ongoing weak shortwave energy. Surface low is over
Manitoba/Ontario/MN border with its cold front stretching from
MN and southwestward through east central to south central SD.
By 12Z, this front will track a bit east with the CWA behind the
fropa late morning/midday. CAMs indicates most of the
convection by this time will mainly be over southern and
southeastern SD. However, a few of the Cams show portions of
east central SD could be clipped by the ongoing rain. By the
midday, high pressure moves in over western SD and ridge aloft
over MT/WY through the western Dakotas which will keep central
SD dry. Ongoing shortwave energy aloft will continue over the
eastern half of the Dakotas with a few of the CAMs indicating
the possibility of additional spotty elevated storms firing up
(behind the surface cold front) over portions of northeastern
SD/western MN this afternoon. Any potential convection will have
limited instability as CAPE will be 1000 j/kg or less, however,
bulk shear will be around 30kts. The SPC has just general
thunderstorms for the outlook today but if any cell within this
shear/cape can grow vertically enough into the cooler air
aloft, it may produce small hail and wind gusts of 50mph as mid
level lapse rates will be rather weak.

The ridge will continue to track east this evening with the CWA
underneath it by late tonight where it will continue to build over
the Northern Plains through Saturday with the CWA under the western
portion of the ridge by Saturday evening. This will keep the weather
dry and quiet as high pressure at the surface remains dominant. By
Sunday a shortwave and its surface low will will track northeastward
and over southeastern SD by early Monday. At the same time, a cold
front will track eastward across central SD (per low in Canada)
with the fropa along the ~James River by 12Z Monday. These
features will bring additional shower and thunderstorms chances
Sunday evening/night through Monday morning with pop chances
mainly James Valley and eastward by Monday afternoon and
continuing through Monday evening. This longwave trough setting
up over the western CONUS, and its embedded shortwaves, along
with the potential of additional surface low passing over the
region will bring periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms
to the CWA through the end of the week. Machine learning models
do highlight the potential for severe weather next week, however
nothing has been outlooked by the SPC as of now.

With the ridge overhead for the weekend, high temperatures will
increase into the upper 80s into the mid 90s Saturday with potential
highs reaching the upper 90s over central SD Sunday. Highs will
overall be in the 80s on Monday with temps warming back into the 90s
Tuesday with the potential for a few 100 degree readings on
Wednesday as this looks to be our warmest day of next week. Add in
moist dewpoints and a few 100 degree heat indices look possible for
a few locations James Valley and eastward. Probability of reaching
100 degrees is 40-65%, highest over south central SD. However the
NBM 25-75th spread is quite large, on the order of 7-10 degrees
Wednesday and 20 degrees Thursday due to low confidence in exact
synoptic setup this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Patchy fog across central SD early this morning will temporarily
affect KPIR for the initial hour or two of this forecast.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today for all
terminals. Afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible across
northeast SD and this has been added as a PROB30 group at KABR
in this forecast issuance. Winds will generally remain light
from the west to northwest today and then switch around to the
east to southeast tonight into early Saturday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond