585
FXUS63 KABR 292008
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
308 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and weak thunderstorms will continue through the weekend.
Severe weather is not expected with this system, though cold air
funnels are possible in the afternoons. Heavier rain or stationary
storms may also pose a flooding threat.

- Precipitation (20-40%) chances on Tuesday, then dry the rest of
the week.

- Cooler (below normal) temperatures in store by Wednesday and
Thursday of next week. Highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

An H7 low has settled over western SD this afternoon and continues
to generate some showers across central SD. While the H7 low is
helping to amp up mid level moisture, there`s also southerly surface
flow ahead of a sfc low in western NE that continues to push
dewpoints into the 60s and PWATs up over 1.5 inches. Shortwave
energy also adds to the forcing. Earlier this afternoon, there were
a couple of reports of cold air funnels in Marshall county.
Afternoon convection coupled with the cooler air aloft is making
conditions favorable for funnels on the upslope of the Coteau.

The other concern with the daytime heating convection is the threat
for localized flooding with very slow moving storms over already
saturated soil in the east. On the positive side, these cells should
dissipate with sunset. Precipitation under the H7 and a southerly
descending H5 low into Saturday and Sunday will linger more over
central SD. Given the high PWATs and slow moving system, some models
are accumulating upwards of 4 to 6 inches over a 72 hour period over
portions of central SD. If the rain is stretched over the weekend,
the soils are drier in central SD, especially south of Pierre and
will be able to handle the absorption. We will continue to monitor
for any increased rates in thunderstorms that may result in runoff.

A cold front swings through Tuesday night bringing the potential for
temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight if clouds clear. Highs
on Wednesday appear to be 10 to 15 degrees below average for early
September, in the 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The bulk of the rain has set up between KPIR and KMBG this
afternoon. Additional convection is developing well south of KPIR.
Expect a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions across central SD through
Saturday morning with vsby falling in any heavier showers.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20