890
FXUS63 KABR 061702 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1202 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally patchy frost is a possibility Tuesday morning mainly for
north central South Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion

UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Added some low pops (15 to 20 percent) across south central SD for
the scattered sprinkles/light showers indicated on radar. This is
all associated with a passing shortwave in the upper trough, but
sfc high pressure building in should make it harder for any precip
to reach the surface as the day progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

As of 2am scattered mid to high clouds are moving in from the
southwest over portions of central SD with current temperatures in
the upper 30s to the mid 40s. HREF indicates these clouds will
continue to push northeastward over the CWA through the morning
before clearing out this afternoon or so. Overall quiet and cooler
conditions expected for the short term as high pressure will be over
the region today and tonight. Extreme southern portions of Lyman
County could be clipped by some light sprinkles/rain (pop 15%), as a
few of the CAMs suggest this between ~10-13Z per a weak wave to the
south. By Tuesday morning, the center of the high is forecasted to
be over Nebraska as a front will pass over northeastern SD/western
MN from northwest to southeast, associated with a low over
northeastern Quebec tracking northeastward. Aloft, the region
continues in an overall troughing pattern with the trough shifting
eastward through Tuesday and a ridge setting up over the Pacific
Northwest. Towards the end of the short term, this ridge will shift
slightly east and winds (that have been southwesterly) will shift
west then northwest.

It will feel more like Fall today as 850mb temps by peak heating
will range from +4 to +6C, which runs between the 25-75th
percentile based on climatology for today. Forecasted highs will
range between the upper 50s to the lower 60s per deterministic NBM
with the 25th-75th spread for max temps ranging between 2-4
degrees in any one location of the CWA. Even though winds will be
out of the southwest tonight, they will remain fairly light
(5-10kts, highest eastern slopes of Coteau, per marginal
downsloping effect). With maybe only a few clouds, this should
allow for radiational cooling. NBM deterministic temps are
forecasted in the upper 30s to the lower 40s with the 25-75th
spread about 3-4 degrees. Patchy frost is possible over north
central SD. If we do dip below guidance (warmer bias from above
average temps past couple of weeks) or stronger radiational
cooling, NBM 10th percentile runs in the lower to upper 30s across
the CWA, coldest over north central SD. Right now, probability of
MinT<36 is 40-60% over the Leola Hills and far western Corson
County. With 850mb winds turning more west/southwesterly for
Tuesday, warmer air will filter in with temps ranging from +6 to
+10C with forecasted surface temps overall in the mid to upper 60s
(lower to mid 60s over the Coteau).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Not much going on in the extended as the upper trough passes
overhead and then east. A weak wave crosses the area late
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, with the GFS generating some light
QPF. A deeper dive in BUFKIT indicates this is coming from a shallow
(1kft or less) saturated layer in the  low levels and overall the
atmosphere is fairly dry. NBM is now up to 13% POPs so the current
non-mention is fine. Ridging aloft follows and temperatures climb
back to above normal running about 5 to 15 degrees above, with a
peak on Saturday of 15 to 20 degrees above normal for both
highs/lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

High to mid-level clouds are possible through the afternoon and into
the evening. Additionally, more mid-level clouds could move in this
evening and overnight, but terminals are forecast to still have VFR
conditions. Light westerly/northwesterly winds are occurring through
the rest of the day before turning overnight to be from the
west/southwest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...12