563
FXUS63 KABR 192351
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
651 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds will persist into Monday and may result in periods of
  reduced visibility along higher terrain.

- Steadier showers move in tonight and Sunday as far east as the
  James Valley before tapering off from north to south on Monday.

- Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals the next few days
  before returning to near normal readings Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

There are a few breaks in the steady stratus cloud deck over
southeastern ND. This area is nearing northeastern SD this
evening. Otherwise, a cloudy sky will remain. We`re also
tracking light showers south of Aberdeen and mainly across Spink
County, which will continue to diminish in coverage as
additional showers move from western to central SD late this
evening and overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

An upper low will slowly translate from the Montana Rockies into
Minnesota over the next couple of days. For now, it continues to
eject shortwaves into the northern Plains while sfc high pressure is
transitioning over southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes.
This has placed this forecast area in a region of weak easterly
flow, helping to bump up low and mid level moisture. The associated
low clouds and drizzle or light rain are expected to persist in this
regime through Monday morning. Adjusted overnight temps toward
higher hi-res guidance with smaller diurnal fluctuations expected
due to cloud cover. It`s a known model bias to drag temps too low in
this type of pattern.

As the upper low exits to the east on Tuesday and a weak upper ridge
builds in, expect daytime highs to rise on southerly flow to closer
to normal values. On Wednesday evening, a llj sets up with some
additional shortwave energy as the upper ridge recedes. This means
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 0Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue through the TAF period.
The exception is ABR, which may briefly move to VFR conditions
from 03-10Z as gaps in the lower clouds develop. Patchy fog is
expected to develop near daybreak at ABR/ATY, with light rain
moving into central SD (PIR/MBG) after 11Z Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06