069
FXUS63 KABR 310750
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
250 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Once lingering showers move out this morning, expect a dry
forecast through the weekend.

- Temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s return over parts of
central and north central South Dakota this weekend. Temperatures
are set to cool down to below normal by the middle of next week.

- Above normal temperatures and strong southerly wind gusts will
combine to create elevated fire weather concerns over central and
north central South Dakota this weekend, particularly on Sunday when
gusts reach as high as 30-40 miles per hour.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Some light rain showers linger over northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota this morning. Storms yesterday produced a fairly
extensive swath of 4"-6" in total precipitation (as of roughly 07Z)
and MRMS estimates indicate that some localized areas may have
received as much as 6"-8". While lingering showers are expec ted to
be fairly light in terms of rain rate, another 0.5"-1" of rain may
fall through the morning hours today. Flooding concerns will remain
where showers last this morning.

An upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern CONUS over the
next couple of days, which will shift the upper-level ridge axis
over the region to become more positiiely tilted. The resulting
pattern leads to a thremal gradient over the forecast area over the
weekend. Highs will range from slightly below normal (low 80s) east
of the James River increasing to the 90s to perhaps low 100s west of
the Missouri River. Strong southerly winds from a low-level jet will
also be present this weekend. Saturday`s winds will be a touch lower
and more localized than Sunday`s winds, gusting up to 20 to 30 miles
per hour along and west of the Missouri River. Coverage will expand
Sunday afternoon, with gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour possible
everywhere along and west of the James River Valley. These winds
combined with the aforementioned heat will create some elevated fire
weather concerns over central and north central South Dakota,
particularly on Sunday. With this latest forecast, the Grassland
Fire Danger will reach High to Very High that day for counties along
the Missouri River. Non-zero chance for a Red Flag Warning, but will
likely be highly dependent upon temperatures.

The next chances for rain come early next week due to the
development of an upper-level trough and associated jet streak
moving over the region. This setup will bring a cold front across
the region, along which showers and storms may develop. There is
still a bit of uncertainty on the timing, but confidence is
increasing in the Monday evening to overnight Tuesday time frame
having the best chances for rain (mainly across northeastern South
Dakota and western Minnesota). While still a bit far out to delve
into the specifics of a potential severe weather threat, but mid-
range model guidance continues to show probabilities of severe
weather consistent with a Marginal Risk.

Behind the cold front, expect a brief cooldown in temperatures.
Tuesday`s and Wednesday`s highs look to be about 5-10 degrees below
normal for a change, generally in the 70s across the board both
days. Beyond that point uncertainty grows drastically, but there are
some signals for a warmup back to at least near-normal for the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of -SHRA/SHRA continue across the region, but mainly
expecting KATY to be most affected through the overnight hours.
VBSY in KATY may fall to MVFR in SHRA. Otherwise, areas of
MVFR/IFR CIGs will affect the region at the start of the TAF
period, especially across KABR/KATY. Conditions are forecast to
trend VFR area-wide by later in the day Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT