153
FXUS63 KABR 162017
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The front has moved east of the CWA. Severe weather is no longer
  expected for far northeast South Dakota, nor Big Stone or
  Traverse counties.

- The next round of showers and weak storms (30-60% chance) comes
  in from the west late this evening and overnight. An isolated
  stronger storm or two out by the Pierre area could contain hail
  to 1" and wind gusts to 60mph.

- Temperatures are forecast to warm to 10 to 20 degrees above
  normal by the end of the week, where there is a 40 to 60 percent
  chance temperatures could climb to or above 100F degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The front is now on the SD/MN state line and moving quickly east
rapidly diminishing the severe weather risk for the area, though
satellite does show some bubbling cumulus along the boundary and SPC
mesoanalysis suggesting its uncapped in Traverse county. Will need
to watch this area for the next hour or two as severe weather
indicies increase the farther east into Minnesota. Once that window
is closed however, should be dry through the afternoon/evening. At
00Z, a shortwave will have lifted out of the intermountain west into
eastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota.  CAMS highlight
convection across western SD/Nebraska this afternoon/evening
associated with the wave. No suggestion of a low level jet to keep
this supported and organized with loss of daytime heating, so the
wave making its wave across the southern half of South Dakota means
only scattered to isolated elevated storms in a primarily
unidirectional southwesterly to westerly mid-level shear profile,
meaning a low risk for hail and straight line winds.

CAMS continue to move showers/storms east into Tuesday, with re-
invigoration due to diabatic heating. The shear profiles is weaker
(0-6km roughly 25-30kts) with winds 10kts or less in the lowest
10kft, meaning a limited severe weather threat if any.  Looks like
there are two weak waves in the NAM with the next coming through
late Tuesday for additional chances for weak storms into Wednesday,
however we start to see ridging out west on the increase helping to
support limited moisture Wednesday night/Thursday.

A southwest flow oriented wave over the intermountain west lifts
into the region Friday, with a plume of mid/high level moisture and
a surge in very warm mild level air. 700mb temperatures are nearing
3 standard deviations above climo, with the EC up to +20C. In the
low levels, low confidence with regards to how hot and humid it will
get, with weak frontal systems evident in the 850/925mb temperature
fields, though handled differently between deterministic models.
Regardless, surface based convection east river will be impossibly
capped, though we cant rule out elevated convection with the subtle
southwest flow waves. This very mild air aloft will persist into
Sunday/Monday as an upper low sits across the intermountain west.

Current NBM deterministic values may be underdoing the degree of this
heat, with forecast values at the bottom end of the 25/75th
percentile box and whisker plots - which also shows a 8-10 degree F
range for highs Thursday-Monday. If we were to lean closer to the
higher range of the percentiles, the forecast would call for highs in
the mid/upper 90s to possibly over 100F for Pierre. As models get
into better alignment expect forecast highs to increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals today. Might be a period in
which we see fog develop early Tuesday for KABR/KATY. Breezy
northwest winds for KPIR/KMBG will eventually become light
northerlies overnight. As for chances for storms, looks like at
worst we could see an isolated storm early afternoon for KATY
before storms move east, but for the most part it should remain
dry for all terminals today. Overnight from west to east we could
see isolated convection. KMBG/KPIR around midnight and KATY/KABR
during the early morning hours Tuesday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07