226
FXUS63 KABR 131520 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1020 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler than normal temperatures expected through Wednesday
  (highs in the 60s to low 70s) with the exception of a brief
  warmup on Monday (highs in the mid to upper 70s over much of
  the forecast area). A gradual warming trend will begin mid-
  week and continue through the weekend.

- Confidence is high on widespread rain and perhaps weak
  thunderstorms overnight tonight through Monday afternoon.
  Highest rainfall totals are expected along the US-212
  corridor, where totals may exceed one inch (40-60% chance).

- Strong northwesterly winds take hold behind a cold front
  Monday afternoon into evening. Along and west of the
  Missouri River, wind gusts will reach as high as 35 to 45
  miles per hour.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Current temps range in the upper 50s to the lower 60s and
dewpoints in the 40s. Radar indicates the last of narrow bands
of precip, associated with a shortwave aloft, exiting the far
eastern CWA with satellite indicating ongoing mid to high clouds
over much of the CWA. An upper level ridge will track eastward
and be overhead this afternoon and evening with a surface high
pressure system still dominant over the region keeping
conditions dry. Both the ridge and high will exit to the east
overnight as a low moving in will bring widespread rain late
tonight through Monday afternoon. Forecast to remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast with mid/upper level CIGS during the
first 18 hours of the TAF valid period. After 06Z Monday, the
return flow set up of strong south-southeast 15 to 25 knot winds
will be drawing low level moisture up into the region. This sets
the stage for some potential sub-VFR cigs, and perhaps even some
pockets of IFR fog, particularly over the KPIR/KMBG terminals.
A couple bands of light rain have developed over the region.
Have transitioned the PROB30 groups to TEMPO groups. By 15Z, the
majority of this light precipitation should be out of the area,
leaving conditions dry until later tonight when the next round
of showers with embedded thunder begin to develop and move up
into central and north central South Dakota. Light east winds at
or less than 10 knots this morning will eventually settle into a
southeasterly direction today and increase tonight to 15 to 25
knots with higher gusts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
AVIATION...10