701
FXUS63 KABR 132343 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
643 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and weak storms will continue to pop up over
  portions of south central and east central SD this afternoon
  into the evening. If a storm does pop up, it is expected to
  remain sub- severe and short in duration.

- 20-30% chance for some scattered non-severe storms and
  showers to develop or move into portions of central SD late
  Friday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

As of 18z, there are currently some isolated showers lingering over
portions of south central and east central SD. These showers are
slowly moving around and then dissipating after not too long. The
environment has a touch of instability, with between 250-500 J/kg
over south central and east central SD. This could help with the
development of occasional showers and weak & non-severe storms over
portions of central and east central SD this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, central and northeastern SD will stay dry as showers and
storms stay to the south and west through the overnight hours.

The upper-level ridge that had kept northwest flow over SD through
the past week has finally shifted to the east over the southeastern
US. With this ridge moving east, the upper-level flow has switched
to be from the southwest through the weekend. This southwest flow
will start to push the wildfire smoke aloft and at the surface out
of central and northeastern SD today and into Friday. There could be
a bit of smoke aloft over northern SD through the evening before it
moves out. Temperatures today and into the weekend will be about 5-
10 degrees below normal, with highs in the 70s.

The lee of the Rockies surface trough will slowly be pushed to the
east by the southwest flow Friday. This surface boundary is forecast
to move over central SD late Friday afternoon and into the evening.
This will provide support for the next chance for showers and storms
to develop, as the boundary will move into an environment with lots
of moisture and some weak instability. The NAM and RAP show CAPE
values in western SD getting up into the 1000s J/kg while central SD
will see values around 500 J/kg. While the values are a bit weaker,
it could still be enough to help storms develop in central SD or
have storms develop in western SD and then move into central SD.
There does look to be lower lapse rates and shear values, which
helps to increase the confidence that if any storms develop, then
they will stay non-severe. These storms could have some stronger
wind gusts at times. As the surface boundary shifts east over
northeastern SD during the overnight hours, the storms look to
dissipate. This is because the environment is even weaker and there
is nothing to support the storm, such as a low level jet which will
develop in ND. A cold front along the back side of this surface
boundary looks to move through central and northeastern SD Saturday
morning. This could cause an isolated shower or two to pop up
through the day Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the first part of
the TAF period. By Friday morning, MVFR CIGs are anticipated to
move into parts of the region. There may also be a few SHRA
across portions of central SD, possibly affecting KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT