261
FXUS63 KABR 142024
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light off and on showers or sprinkles continue, with more steady
rain returning to central South Dakota Wednesday evening before
spreading across northeastern South Dakota and west central
Minnesota through the night.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for isolated severe
storms Wednesday night into Thursday morning over central SD. The
main threats will be hail 1 inch in diameter and some wind gusts of
60 mph.

- Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal Thursday
afternoon over eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- There is a 40% chance of steady showers Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The 20Z radar imagery shows steady light rain over much of
northeastern SD and west central MN. Nearly all of ND and MN are
under thick clouds, with only the southwestern 1/5th of SD with few
clouds. While the mid clouds have shifted over eastern SD/western
MN, there is still plenty of lower clouds/low level moisture
remaining over our area. Model guidances shows plenty of moisture
stuck at or below 800mb through at least 00Z Thursday before slowly
diminishing, and being replaced by thick high clouds. So, plenty of
clouds and moisture will be the theme through at least Thursday
night.

The rain and clouds inhibited temperatures from rising much above 50F
today. It won`t take much for temperatures to fall into the low 40s
(lows tonight). Warm air advection has slowly started and 850mb
temperatures will rise back into the 10-15C range by 21Z Wednesday as
a surface low organizes over northeastern CO pushes a warm front
over eastern SD. While there could be showers or even a thunderstorm
associated with the warm frontal passage, much of the instability
will be associated with the increasing winds ahead of the surface
low as it moves over southwestern SD by 12Z Thursday. The low will
move over our north central SD counties by 18Z Thursday and exit
across ND while dragging a cold front over the rest of the forecast
area during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures Thursday
remain tricky with the cold front nearby, but we still have highs in
the 70s over eastern SD/western MN with around a 5F spread in the 25-
75th percentiles off the NBM. The timing of the cold front and
exiting low remains pretty consistent. While we have the Marginal
Risk for severe storms over our western counties Wednesday night, a
few stronger storms may still pop up during the daytime hours
Thursday. Some of the ai convective hazard forecasts have been
showing this potential farther east Thursday (of either general
thunderstorms or isolated severe storms over our southern counties).

A dry forecast is in store for most of Friday through at least
Monday of next week. There is around a 30% chance of showers next
Tuesday/Day 7, but looking at some of the 500mb heights and
differences at that range on the cluster prototype page, spread in
the solutions increases with confidence decreasing.

Low 30s temperatures will return to much of the area Sunday morning.
A brief look father out shows even colder morning lows possible for
the middle of next week, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR to MVFR ceilings will start out the TAF period at most terminals,
though some scattered rain showers are causing clouds and
visibilities to drop a bit lower at times. Scattered showers will
continue into the afternoon for most terminals and into the evening
for KATY. Lower clouds will keep moving in, with lower ceilings
causing MVFR conditions during the afternoon and evening as well
as IFR conditions during the evening and overnight into Wednesday.
Winds from the east to southeast will continue over central and
northeastern SD through Wednesday with gusts over 20kts
occasionally happening though the afternoon.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...12