086
FXUS63 KABR 160537 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1237 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across central and north central South Dakota later tonight.
  Main threat would be strong/damaging winds.

- There is an Enhanced risk (3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across east central South Dakota into western Minnesota Monday
  afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two are
  all possible severe weather threats Monday afternoon.

- Temperatures are forecast to warm to 5 to 10 degrees above normal
  by the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The ongoing forecast remains on track, with the initial MCV now
east of our west central MN counties. Otherwise in the near term,
we`re monitoring the cumulus clouds over southern Hand County for
the potential for a few showers. The main threat for showers and
thunderstorms looks to arrive mainly after midnight across north
central SD. Only small adjustments have been made to the showers
and thunderstorms timing and coverage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue across the eastern CWA as another
MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) has developed over Watertown. This
mesoscale system will continue to produce rain and areas of
convection through the remainder of the afternoon. Radar estimates
in some of the heavier cores the past hour or two show about 1 to 2
inches of rainfall, some of which occurred over portions of
northeast SD where heavy rain fell a few days ago. CREST values have
been behaving though so no headlines for flooding at this time, but
will continue to monitor as this MCV slowly rotates across the area
and generates moderate to heavy precipitation at times. 1-hr flash
flood guidance is generally 1.50-2.50in across the northeast CWA
while 3-hr guidance is slightly higher.

Focus then shifts to the overnight hours into early Monday morning
as severe storm potential increases over central SD and perhaps into
the James River valley. Convection across eastern MT/WY will
increase into this evening and start pushing eastward. Still looking
at the biggest threat to be damaging straight-line winds within any
MCS/MCS`s that form and push into the western Dakotas and eventually
into central SD around midnight or so. Enhanced Risk (threat level 3
of 5) remains in place over northwest SD, but does not extend into
central SD at this time.

On Monday, attention turns to the eastern/southern CWA along the
frontal boundary. Parameters suggest a small tornado threat across
the southeast CWA, while the bigger large hail threat may set up
more across southeast SD.

Looking further ahead, it appears heat will enter the picture by the
end of the week and upcoming weekend, with highs forecast to be back
into the 80s and even some low 90s. Current forecast dewpoints are
in the 60s, so a taste of summer heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Still VFR (for the most part) at 06Z. Look for deteriorating
conditions after 06-08Z over central SD as strong to severe
thunderstorms move in from the west/northwest. Currently, KPIR
could experience some thunderstorm gusts up to 45 knots. But, if
convection recycles/strengthens over the next few hours,
convective gusts in excess of 50 knots will be possible. Large
hail (GR) is also possible. These weather types are included in
the KPIR TAF. They are also included in the KMBG TAF, where the
probability of higher thunderstorm gusts (in excess of 60 knots)
exists. Confidence is lower at other locations (KABR/KATY), with
only -shra/tsra mentioned at KABR at this time, and closer to 12Z.
Will add into the KATY TAF later if it looks like showers/storms
may be able to make it all the way there. Later Monday afternoon,
convection may develop at/near the KATY terminal for a couple of
hours before precipitation threat moves south/east out of the
area.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10