


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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417 FXUS63 KABR 181734 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1234 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds increase today out of the northwest, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph along/west of James River. The winds will cause elevated fire danger over portions of central and north central South Dakota. - Lows for tonight will be near or below freezing ranging in the low/mid 30s. - Strong winds and elevated fire danger return Monday. Probabilities of wind gusts more than 45 mph is 50-90 percent, highest over central SD. - Seasonal temperatures this weekend will be followed by slightly cooler readings early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1026 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Band of light rain continues to make progress eastward and should be exiting the CWA by 17Z. May need to trim back edge of PoPs and end precip chances a bit sooner late this morning into early afternoon. Otherwise, still expecting northwest winds to increase today as gusts range from 30 to 40 mph across central SD into the James valley. Current forecast highs in the 50s still look OK. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 An upper level trough and surface cold front is currently impacting the area with light showers over northwest South Dakota. The trough will continue progressing across the region today, with light showers spreading across the CWA. The probability of seeing 0.01 inches of QPF per the NBM exceeds 45 percent over a good portion of the CWA. The highest probability is over north central and central SD where the chance is over 60 percent. The higher potential lines up with deterministic models area of frontogenesis. ECAM and HREF suggest the pcpn will push east of the CWA between 18 and 21Z. Behind the pcpn, the area will see increasing northwesterly winds with gusts of 25 to 40 mph expected. Six hour pressure rises have increased some compared to this time yesterday, but still mostly impacting western and south central South Dakota today. Buffer soundings still support peak wind gusts reaching 30 to 35 knots at times, or sub-adverisory levels. The winds will subside later this evening and through the overnight hours. Favorable conditions should allow low temperatures to drop below 32 degrees F by Sunday morning over a good portion of the CWA. Southerly winds developing on Sunday will bring warmer temperatures into the area with highs reaching the mid 50s, to the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The upper flow pattern will feature an incoming upper trough from the west that will replace a departing upper ridge to the east as this period begins late Sunday into early Monday. This upper trough will spawn a sfc low pressure system that will track into the Dakotas on Monday. An associated strong cold front is progged to set off a 30-60 percent chance of shower activity that will primarily affect our northern zones during the day. Moisture still looks to remain scant with this system, so only expecting light rain shower activity that may produce upward of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rainfall. The bigger story this system will deliver will be strong northwest winds. Strong cold air advection will kick in as the front tracks across the area Monday morning with 850mb temperatures falling into a range between 0C and +5C during the day and then eventually going subzero Monday night into Tuesday morning. The combination of this CAA along with pressure rises and daytime mixing will lead to a period of strong winds. NBM suggests probabilities of seeing wind gusts greater than 45 mph range from 50- 90 percent across most of our SD zones on Monday with the highest wind gust probs west of the James Valley into central and western SD. In fact, probabilities of seeing winds greater than 55 mph run about 50-70 percent west of the Missouri River. Will have to continue to monitor these trends for the potential need for wind headlines. A tight gradient is maintained Monday night into Tuesday, especially from the James Valley and point east. So, anticipate that gusty northwest winds will persist in these areas during the daytime hours. Not expecting nearly as strong of winds compared to Monday, but gusts could still reach a 25-35 mph range especially across the Prairie Coteau. As the low pressure system departs from northern MN into the western Great Lakes, some wrap around light showers will be possible across our eastern zones Monday night. Sfc high pressure is then progged to take hold going through midweek time frame. Dry conditions are expected to prevail as temperatures remain seasonal. Once that high drifts farther east late in the period, a warming trend is expected as WAA commences and temperature readings go back above normal the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Gusty northwest surface winds from 25 to 35 knots will subside after sunset. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Vipond AVIATION...TMT