296
FXUS63 KABR 242325
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for portions of
  south central late this afternoon into this evening and far
  northeastern SD late this evening into the early overnight
  hours. Winds to 75 mph and hail to 2" in diameter will be
  possible with the strongest storms.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 25 to 35 mph Tuesday
  afternoon, with dry weather continuing through the day
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Our weather over the next 12-15 hours will be highly dependent on
the cold front currently set up over western Corson and Dewey
Counties. It will continue to slide east across the forecast area,
draped south from the main surface low pushing across south central
Canada. Expect the cold front to cross central South Dakota during
the late afternoon and evening hours, and over far northeastern
South Dakota into western Minnesota overnight into early Tuesday
morning. Winds will turn out of a west to northwesterly direction
behind the front, with the most dramatic/quick change in wind
direction this afternoon into the early evening hours across north
central SD. While most locations will remain dry, there is a 30-60%
chance of showers or thunderstorms with the passage of the cold
front. A few stronger storms mainly south will be capable of
producing 2 inch diameter hail or wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph. The
highest threat area for these stronger storms are over south central
South Dakota south of Pierre, and north of a line from Aberdeen to
Sisseton.

Dry high pressure will then build in from the western Canada through
the day Thursday. The result will be much drier and windier
conditions Tuesday afternoon. Relative humidity values will fall into
the 25-40% percent range Tuesday, lowest over central South Dakota.
Winds out of the northwest will increase, and gust 25 to 35 mph. The
strongest winds will be over northern SD, with the lightest winds
south of Pierre. Grassland Fire Danger Index values will jump back
into the high category for much of central SD Tuesday afternoon.

Highs will remain mainly in the 80s through the period, with lows in
the 50s to low 60s. Our next chance of precipitation returns
Thursday night, with the highest chance (20-50%) Friday night into
Saturday. This aligns with our next low chance of strong to
potentially severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

KABR is pretty close to an MVFR CIG right around 3kft. Otherwise
VFR outside of any storms for the most part, though cant rule
out some fog at KATY early in the morning (too low a
probability for inclusion in current TAFs). Storms are currently
very close to KMBG/KPIR and could impact terminals though about
2-3Z. Less confident on storms impacting the KABR/KATY
terminals.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...07