544
FXUS63 KABR 291458
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
958 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain exiting far northeastern SD and west central MN this
  morning, with drizzle and low clouds remaining into the
  afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Steady light to moderate rain is now east of a line from Claire
City through Webster and Clark. There are radar indications of
drizzle as far west as Mobridge and Gettysburg. While the sun
is visible in Jones and Stanley Counties, plenty of low clouds
remain elsewhere. The main question will be how quickly the more
difficult to forecast low cloud deck that is sinking in from ND
will stick around. The main changes for this update were to push
the main rain east and out of the forecast area sooner and keep
cloudy conditions going a bit longer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, rain continues to move southwest to northeast across
the region. Totals so far across central SD have been significantly
higher due to convection, with 2-3 inches so far across Corson
county. Precipitation is expected to end over central SD this
morning and continue over northeastern SD and west central MN
through at least the afternoon hours. Temperatures around the area
currently are in the low 60s with winds around 10 mph out of the
south. Chance of an additional half inch through the rest of the
day is 60-80% for areas east of a line from Eureka to
Gettysburg to Huron.

Temperatures through the middle of the week will be slightly above
average with highs in the 70s. Highs for the end of the week into
the weekend will be around to slightly below average, in the 60s.
Models are starting to show a slight warm up again for the beginning
of next work week. Our next best chance for precipitation will be
Saturday as a shortwave/weak low moves across central ND. PoPs max
out around 30% and are concentrated mainly along and north of Hwy
12. Winds Friday afternoon will gust up to 30 mph west river, with
some locally higher gusts up to 35 mph in south central SD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs is expected this morning as rain
continues to push east. There is a layer of stratus moving south
out of ND this morning behind the rain. Most of this looks to be
low VFR with some MVFR mixed in according to upstream obs.
However, some guidance indicates ceilings may briefly drop as
low as IFR before all sites clear out by late afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20