992
FXUS63 KABR 030111 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
811 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal this
  weekend into most of next week.

- There is a 20-50 percent chance for showers on Saturday, otherwise
  the rest of the weekend through most of next week will be dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Current temperatures range in the lower 50s to the lower 60s,
warmest across south central SD with dewpoints in the 30s and
40s. Radar indicates dry conditions as the light rain/sprinkles
over eastern SD has moved out of the area with some light
returns to the north of the CWA. Satellite indicates high clouds
mainly over ND/MN but are brushing over the ND/SD border per mid
level shortwave. Winds across central SD are continuing to
weaken with current gusts between 15-20 mph. As this LLJ tracks
eastward (and strengthens to 35-45kts) across the CWA,
northeastern SD/MN will see an uptick in winds late tonight
through Saturday morning. Behind the passing fropa, per CAA,
winds will turn west then northwest with the highest gusts
across central SD Saturday afternoon with overall gusts across
the CWA between 20-35kts. No major changes made to the forecast
as it remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFS below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A northwest flow aloft pattern will persist across the Northern
Plains this weekend into most of next week. A series of weak upper
level waves will pass through this flow leading to a rollercoaster
temperature pattern of sorts over the course of the next several
days. Sfc high pressure exits east tonight. A fairly healthy
southerly return flow has set up across central SD this afternoon
and will traverse east tonight. Temperatures will not be quite as
cool overnight as they were this morning with readings in the mid
40s to low 50s. South to southwest flow ahead of the first upper
wave will start us off Saturday. Sfc low pressure and associated
cold front approach the area by morning. Timing of the fropa closer
to midday or afternoon should be enough to bump of 850mb temps into
the low to mid teens C. This translates into highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Thickening cloud cover will accompany this fropa along
with a 20-50 percent chance of showers. Moisture looks limited so
expect hit and miss variety shower where not everyone sees rainfall.

Winds turn northwest behind the front and become gusty up to 25-40
mph during the afternoon across central SD and as far east as the
James Valley. We cold advect Saturday night as sfc high pressure
begins to build in. With the high to our west and northwest most of
Saturday night into Sunday should help to prevent any significant
temperature falls to frosty levels. The weekend will finish on a dry
and cooler note but with readings still near normal for early
October. The high will exit to our east come Monday and we`ll be
back to strong southerly flow and a warm air advection pattern.
Expecting temperatures through the early to middle portion of next
week to warm back above normal with daytime highs in the 70s.
Tuesday still appears that it will be the warmest day of the next
several with readings in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low to mid clouds continue over far northeastern SD into western
MN with additional mid to high clouds skirting across the ND/SD
border. This is associated with a mid level shortwave and
surface low over the northern Rockies. VFR cigs are forecast to
prevail through the TAF period. The last of the light
rain/sprinkles is exiting eastern SD with overall dry conditions
expected. Per a low level jet, southeast winds continue to be
gusty at KPIR/KMBG with gusts ranging between 25-30 kts. This
will continue through this evening before diminishing overnight.
However, KABR/KATY will see southeast winds pick up through
this evening into tonight. Per this jet, low level winds shear
(LLWS) will remain possible at KABR/KATY/KPIR terminals late
this evening through early to mid morning Saturday. Expect a
wind shift from the west to northwest,behind a cold front,
towards the end of the TAF period. Light rain chances return to
mainly late morning through the afternoon Saturday at KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM