Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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369 FXUS63 KABR 291943 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 243 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy to areas of fog will develop overnight, with visibility down to around 2 miles or less mainly east of the James River. - High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be 5 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year. - There is a 20-40% chance of light rain Saturday, mainly east of the MO River. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Slightly drier air is slowly working into the area behind a cold front set up across our eastern counties at 19Z. Lingering light rain has all but ended over our far eastern counties. Instead of RH value sin the 80+ percent range, they are down into the 60-70% ranges over north central SD west of the MO River this afternoon. Light winds and lingering moisture overnight will result in fog potentially developing, particularly over east central SD. There is some uncertainty, but if fog does develop it will be dense with headlines likely needed for a few counties. The ECMWF ENS visibility meteogram page shows a 30% chance of visibility of 0.2 miles or less at Watertown. Northwest of Watertown shows less of a chance of fog developing. An additional low over northern Alberta Canada will cross into central Canada and drag a cold front along the ND/SD border Wednesday morning/early afternoon. This boundary will continue to sink southeast across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening. This will bring a temperature change down to slightly below normal temperatures for highs starting Thursday. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be 5 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year. There is also a 30% chance of showers over central SD Thursday night. Dry weather will again quickly take hold.There is a 20-40% chance of light rain Saturday, mainly east of the MO River. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG While the western third of SD is mostly sunny, MVFR to high end IFR conditions continue. Expect improving conditions with a return to VFR ceilings at PIR/MBG by 22Z, and by around 23Z at ATY. There is the potential that the clouds could hang on an hour or so longer at ATY. Fog will be a concern at both ABR and ATY overnight, with a return of MVFR to potentially IFR or even LIFR. The highest chance of IFR conditions will be 10-14Z Wednesday at ATY. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to be at all locations by 16Z Wednesday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...06 AVIATION...06