518
FXUS63 KABR 060237 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
837 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog in the northeast.

- One round of light rain/sprinkles (10-30%) moves through E/NE SD
this afternoon/evening. Temperatures in spots could remain below
freezing with light ice possible.

- 2nd round of light rain (30-60%) moves through central SD early
Tuesday morning. Temperatures again near freezing could result in
light ice.

- Late week storm system across the Plains is possible, but main
impacts currently setting up well southeast of the region as
probability for 1 inch or greater snowfall only around 20% or less.

- Generally above normal temperatures in the extended period (Wed-
Mon) with 30s and 40s for highs (except Saturday).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Foggy conditions have started to expand south and west out of far
northeast SD and west central MN this evening. Sfc obs, webcams
and spotter reports indicate visibility has dropped to a half mile
or less across parts of northeast and east central SD. Added some
additional zones to the Dense Fog Advisory with the potential for
needing further expansion west in time. Guidance suggests fog
could lift and visibilities improve across the James Valley
overnight by 09Z but hang tough longer across our eastern zones
into Tuesday morning. Also, made some adjustments to PoPs to bring
them in line with current radar imagery. Dealing with a couple of
areas of mainly light precipitation moving across east central SD
and west central MN this evening and another area across western
and central SD associated with another weak disturbance moving in.
Not expecting much in the way of moisture with either area but a
brief bout of sprinkles or light rain or freezing rain or snow
can`t be ruled out.

UPDATE Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

As of 2 PM CST, a dense fog advisory remains in effect for far
northeast SD and west central MN until noon Tuesday. Dense fog is
expected to spread west but extent is uncertain at this time. Will
let the next shift extend as necessary. There are also some light
showers moving across south central SD. Temperatures are
generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s with light winds.

Freezing rain will be possible late this evening into the overnight
hours mainly in central SD and far east SD along with west central
MN. Areas of fog/freezing fog are expected to continue over far
northeast SD and west central SD, and spreads west to the James
River later tonight. This, combined with the few hundredths of an
inch of freezing rain accumulations, could create slick roads and
sidewalks for the morning commute. Rain, becoming freezing rain and
snow, will move into central SD after midnight, assuming
temperatures fall below freezing, otherwise it will remain rain.
Snow accumulations are little to none, with a few hundredths of an
inch of ice accumulation possible, again, making for possibly slick
conditions for the morning commute. Our next chance for some
precipitation looks to be Friday into early Saturday morning. The
center of the low producing this snow looks to stay a good ways
south of us, so this is expected to be very light snow with little
accumulation. However, this is 4-5 days out so things could change.

The next few days look to be dry and relatively mild temperature
wise with highs in the 30s to 40s, potentially reaching into the 50s
in south central SD. Saturday will be a little cooler as some colder
air moves in behind the low, but this should be short lived as
strong WAA moves in for the end of the weekend and beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions at all terminals early this evening will quickly
deteriorate at KABR/KATY between 02Z-04Z. LIFR/IFR cigs and vsbys
will be possible overnight at these 2 terminals before improving
around the mid morning hours on Tuesday. KPIR/KMBG will continue
to see VFR conditions through this 24 hour period. Winds will
generally remain between 3-9 knots primarily out of the north and
west.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for SDZ006>008-011-021-
     023.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Vipond