499
FXUS63 KABR 291741
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog will develop overnight, with visibility
down to around 2 miles or less mainly east of the James River.

- High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be 5 to 8 degrees below
normal for this time of year.

- There is a 20-40% chance of light rain Saturday, mainly east
  of the MO River.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Update for 18Z Aviation Discussion.


Issued at 958 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Steady light to moderate rain is now east of a line from Claire
City through Webster and Clark. There are radar indications of
drizzle as far west as Mobridge and Gettysburg. While the sun
is visible in Jones and Stanley Counties, plenty of low clouds
remain elsewhere. The main question will be how quickly the more
difficult to forecast low cloud deck that is sinking in from ND
will stick around. The main changes for this update were to push
the main rain east and out of the forecast area sooner and keep
cloudy conditions going a bit longer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, rain continues to move southwest to northeast across
the region. Totals so far across central SD have been significantly
higher due to convection, with 2-3 inches so far across Corson
county. Precipitation is expected to end over central SD this
morning and continue over northeastern SD and west central MN
through at least the afternoon hours. Temperatures around the area
currently are in the low 60s with winds around 10 mph out of the
south. Chance of an additional half inch through the rest of the
day is 60-80% for areas east of a line from Eureka to
Gettysburg to Huron.

Temperatures through the middle of the week will be slightly above
average with highs in the 70s. Highs for the end of the week into
the weekend will be around to slightly below average, in the 60s.
Models are starting to show a slight warm up again for the beginning
of next work week. Our next best chance for precipitation will be
Saturday as a shortwave/weak low moves across central ND. PoPs max
out around 30% and are concentrated mainly along and north of Hwy
12. Winds Friday afternoon will gust up to 30 mph west river, with
some locally higher gusts up to 35 mph in south central SD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

While the western third of SD is mostly sunny, MVFR to high end
IFR conditions continue. Expect improving conditions with a
return to VFR ceilings at PIR/MBG by 22Z, and by around 23Z at
ATY. There is the potential that the clouds could hang on an
hour or so longer at ATY. Fog will be a concern at both ABR and
ATY overnight, with a return of MVFR to potentially IFR or even
LIFR. The highest chance of IFR conditions will be 10-14Z
Wednesday at ATY. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to be at all
locations by 16Z Wednesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...06