869
FXUS63 KABR 042348 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
648 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk for severe weather along and south of Hwy 12.
  Areas to the north of Hwy 12 are under a Marginal Risk.
  Storms are expected to initialize during the late afternoon
  and continue through the evening. Large hail of 1-2" in
  diameter will be the main threat, with wind gusts of 60 mph as
  a secondary threat. Can`t rule out a tornado over south
  central South Dakota or heavy rainfall leading to flooding.

- A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the
  low to mid 90s across the forecast area on Saturday and
  Sunday, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early June.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Some spotty showers and storms have been moving through central SD
this morning and will continue to move east into the early
afternoon. While these have mainly been just showers and some
occasional lightning, a stronger cell or two has had some dime
sized hail from them at times.

A cold front is currently sitting over south central and
northeastern SD, and will be slowly moving south through the
afternoon and tonight. Some warm, moist air continues to move into
the state as the afternoon heat helps to destabilize the atmosphere.
Models are showing MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg over central and
northeastern SD, with the highest instability over south central SD.
The scattered morning showers and storms could help to stabilize the
atmosphere over central SD into the afternoon, which could decrease
the ability for storms to develop during the late afternoon. The
storms that do develop will likely turn into discrete supercells
from shear values of 35-45kts late this afternoon into the evening
over central SD. These storms will be moving east through the
evening over northeastern SD. Another cluster of storms is forecast
to develop again over south central SD and move east over east
central through the overnight hours. Large hail will be the primary
threat with mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km helping to get hail
with the diameter of 1-2 inches to the surface. Additionally, with
DCAPE around and above 800 J/kg, strong to damaging wind gusts from
the storms will be possible. Models are showing a lack of low level
shear over central and northeastern SD that would help tornadoes to
develop. However, there is a little bit over south central SD,
making it so that a tornado or two can not be ruled out. Storm
motions for the storms are forecast to be around if not faster than
15kts, which will reduce the chances for slow moving storms.
However, the flooding potential is still there with higher PWAT
values, the chance for storms to move over the same areas, and if
over areas that have recieved a lot of rain over the past couple of
days.

There could be some lingering showers over south central and
northeastern SD Friday morning after the storms move out overnight.
There should be a break from severe storm Friday, though some
isolated to scattered showers and storms could develop Friday
afternoon over northeastern SD. The lack of shear over northeastern
SD Friday will help to keep the storms from becoming long lived and
supercellular in nature. The potential for storms to develop will
decrease once the sun sets.

Friday night through Sunday, and upper-level ridge will start
building and moving over SD. This ridge will help to keep
precipitation out for a bit, giving us break from storms and rain
for a day or two. Under this ridge, warmer temperatures will be
moving in, which will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Sunday
afternoon into Monday, a surface trough will be moving over SD. This
surface trough will bring the next chance for storms and showers to
occur Sunday evening into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

TSRA/+TSRA possible again at most TAF sites this evening, with
IFR VSBY possible in the strongest storms. Although at 00Z, it
appears KATY has the highest threat to see storms through around
02Z or 03Z. Otherwise, trend is for quieter weather conditions
on Friday with mostly VFR conditions expected. There may be
pockets of lower MVFR CIGs across the region early Friday
morning, but low confidence on overall areal coverage.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT