Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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499 FXUS63 KABR 291741 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy to areas of fog will develop overnight, with visibility down to around 2 miles or less mainly east of the James River. - High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be 5 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year. - There is a 20-40% chance of light rain Saturday, mainly east of the MO River. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Update for 18Z Aviation Discussion. Issued at 958 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Steady light to moderate rain is now east of a line from Claire City through Webster and Clark. There are radar indications of drizzle as far west as Mobridge and Gettysburg. While the sun is visible in Jones and Stanley Counties, plenty of low clouds remain elsewhere. The main question will be how quickly the more difficult to forecast low cloud deck that is sinking in from ND will stick around. The main changes for this update were to push the main rain east and out of the forecast area sooner and keep cloudy conditions going a bit longer. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, rain continues to move southwest to northeast across the region. Totals so far across central SD have been significantly higher due to convection, with 2-3 inches so far across Corson county. Precipitation is expected to end over central SD this morning and continue over northeastern SD and west central MN through at least the afternoon hours. Temperatures around the area currently are in the low 60s with winds around 10 mph out of the south. Chance of an additional half inch through the rest of the day is 60-80% for areas east of a line from Eureka to Gettysburg to Huron. Temperatures through the middle of the week will be slightly above average with highs in the 70s. Highs for the end of the week into the weekend will be around to slightly below average, in the 60s. Models are starting to show a slight warm up again for the beginning of next work week. Our next best chance for precipitation will be Saturday as a shortwave/weak low moves across central ND. PoPs max out around 30% and are concentrated mainly along and north of Hwy 12. Winds Friday afternoon will gust up to 30 mph west river, with some locally higher gusts up to 35 mph in south central SD. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG While the western third of SD is mostly sunny, MVFR to high end IFR conditions continue. Expect improving conditions with a return to VFR ceilings at PIR/MBG by 22Z, and by around 23Z at ATY. There is the potential that the clouds could hang on an hour or so longer at ATY. Fog will be a concern at both ABR and ATY overnight, with a return of MVFR to potentially IFR or even LIFR. The highest chance of IFR conditions will be 10-14Z Wednesday at ATY. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to be at all locations by 16Z Wednesday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...06 DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...06