157
FXUS63 KABR 010226 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
926 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is expected to develop over portions of the area tonight into
Monday morning.

- Showers and weak thunderstorms will continue through Monday,
shifting east of the James valley Monday afternoon and evening.
Severe weather is not expected.

- A cold front will move through on Tuesday, with a 25 to 45 percent
chance of rain. The remainder of the week is expected to stay dry.

- Below normal temperatures are expected for mid week. Highs will be
in the 60s, 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Low temperatures Thursday
morning may dip into the upper 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Scattered showers continue across parts of central and northeast
South Dakota, but coverage continues to wane. Hi res models are
capturing this trend well and most end precip by around 9Z (give
or take). Beyond precip, fog again remains a forecast challenge
tonight into Monday morning. The most favored region for
radiational fog development would be over the clear skies region
of northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Cloud cover
from the James Valley westward may limit development over those
areas. That said, HREF progs are depicting a widespread 2 to 4
mile type fog development across a majority of the region
(regardless of model cloud cover). Therefore the forecast
continues to carry a fog mention everywhere and trends will be
monitored.

UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The very slow moving upper low will meander south tonight into
Nebraska, cutting off the persistent showers and thunderstorms
across central SD. Any areas that scatter out tonight will be prone
to fog given the ample llm. Some of the fog may be dense. Can`t rule
out an additional shower or two lingering or redeveloping across the
east on Monday as a shortwave passes through in the afternoon and
evening.

North to northwest flow aloft will dominate through mid week. Upper
troughing dips into the northern Plains Tuesday evening bringing caa
and more chances for rain. The upper low dives into the Great Lakes
Wednesday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north at the
sfc. Both of these features will reinforce caa, and winds may be
pretty gusty, as well. Wouldn`t be surprised to see temps dips into
the 30s on Wednesday night with drier air moving in at the mid
levels and skies clearing. Highs for the latter half of the work
week will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal with sfc high pressure
keeping the region mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered showers continue across the region, although model
trends suggest coverage will continue to decrease as we head into
the overnight hours. When showers do move over a TAF site MVFR CIGS
are possible. Otherwise, will be watching for the development of
fog again late tonight/Monday morning. The placement of cloud
cover may influence fog development. Right now the KATY TAF site
stands the greatest chance of having MVFR/IFR fog related impacts.
Trends will help guide the 06 TAF update.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...Serr