385
FXUS63 KABR 041150 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
550 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog continues over the region today, especially over central SD
  where visibility may be reduced to around one-quarter mile or
  less during the morning hours.

- Patches of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain and sleet
  may affect far northeast SD and west central MN today. This
  could lead to a few slick spots on roadways.

- Temperatures today into next week will be 10 to 20 degrees above
  normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 414 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Stratus continues to cover the entire CWA, with fog over central SD.
Areas of fog across portions of northeast SD as well. Although
across central SD, many web cams reveal somewhat dense fog. Have
therefore issued a Dense Fog Advisory for areas west of the James
valley and will continue to monitor for areal coverage changes
throughout the morning. Some cams across central SD showing quite a
bit of frost accretion on surfaces. Cams over northeast SD reveal
pockets of flurries or perhaps even freezing drizzle. Will continue
to monitor this for potential addition into the grids/forecast.

For later today, models indicate only slow erosion of stratus into
central SD and perhaps across the fringes of the CWA bordering FSD.
Constructed sky grids to reflect cloudy/mostly cloudy wording for
much of the area east of the Missouri River, but especially for the
James valley and points east. Areas of fog may also linger even into
the daytime hours for eastern portions of the CWA. As low pressure
moves east today, there may be generation of light freezing
drizzle/drizzle, or even patches of light freezing rain or sleet
over far northeast SD into west central MN. Quite a large range of
forecast highs today from north (30s) to south (50s) as the low
pressure brings in some mild air to southern SD. Of course, cloud
cover will have a huge impact on highs, but where conditions clear
out over the southwest CWA, could see highs in the 50s along the I-
90 corridor.

Overnight, models indicate fog potential yet again so have inserted
this into the grids/forecast. As of now, best potential looks to be
over the eastern CWA. Looking ahead to Monday, conditions look dry
with rather mild temperatures. 30s and 40s for many areas, but may
be dealing with cloud cover once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 414 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Zonal flow with a broad weak trough across the central CONUS slated
for late Monday into Tuesday, and presents with additional low
chances for moisture. There is actually a pair of weak shortwaves to
this, and while each comes with mid level moisture and ascent, we
are again faced with a period where saturation down to the surface
has to overcome a deep dry layer, with NAM BUFKIT profiles
indicating the loss of lift occurs before saturation. Thus, we`d be
left with mostly sprinkles. The warm layer dewpoint depression is
over 10C for the initial wave late Monday, with cooler temperatures
aloft but still around a 6C dewpoint depression for the second wave.

The next wave that follows through this weak trough pattern, with
split flow aloft, moves overhead late Wednesday.  Again, not much
for moisture with this system, with only a handful of ensembles
supporting measurable precipitation.

Focus shifts to late in the work week, as the upper trough overhead
deepens and shifts east. Still a lot of distance in placement
between the EC/GFS/Canadian of this trough, and as such the
associated low pressure system. The GFS placement of low(s) is
currently well to the east and suggests more of a split flow type
transition with a low to the north and south with little impact for
the CWA, the EC a bit farther west and more supportive of weather in
the CWA. None show significant run to run continuity at this point.
We can see likewise trends in ensembles with more precipitation in EC
members in comparison to GEFS/GEPS members. While its fun to point
out the one EC member with 15 inches of snow for Watertown, its also
important to note that only about 15% show an accumulation in excess
of 2 inches and about 40% an inch or less accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Widespread IFR CIGs will continue, although KPIR/KMBG are forecast
to eventually reach VFR conditions later in the afternoon. Further
east across KABR/KATY, expecting IFR/MVFR CIGs to continue through
much of the TAF period. Will also continue to see FG/BR with
MVFR/IFR VSBY during the morning, but may persist into the
afternoon and again tonight across KABR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TMT