862
FXUS63 KABR 301720
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may develop early this morning. The main areas of
  concern will be over parts of north central South Dakota and
  the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills. Visibility may drop to
  a mile or less at times.

- Rain showers move over the forecast area Friday evening into
  Saturday morning. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance to see a
  tenth of an inch of rain mainly east of the James River and
  south of Hwy 212.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Sunday night
  through Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Pains.
  While there is low confidence in timing and amounts at this
  time, the chance to see an inch of rain ranges from 50 to 75
  percent along and east of the Missouri River.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with
the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 934 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Forecast remains on track this morning, and no changes have been
made. Some isolated patches of fog are lingering this morning
over north central South Dakota as well as western Minnesota.
Webcam observations indicate that this fog is highly localized,
but in the heaviest fog visibility of one mile or lower is still
possible. Any lingering fog is expected to dissipate within the
next couple of hours at the latest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the region are in the upper 30s
to low 40s with winds out of the northeast to southeast at generally
less than 10 mph. There is potential for fog this morning across
north central SD and the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills but
winds are a bit high and there isn`t much moisture sitting around.
If fog does form, it should burn off by mid morning. The rest of the
day is expected to be cloudy, except for some afternoon clearing
north of Hwy 12 and east of US 281. Highs today will be in the 50s.

The main story for the forecast will be our precipitation chances.
The first will be Friday night into Saturday and the second, more
widespread and wet event starting Monday. A low pressure system will
sit just off the lee side of the Rockies Friday with a front moving
up from the south and kicking off some light showers through the day
Saturday. Total accumulations of a couple hundredths are expected. A
low pressure system will move in from the west Monday, exiting the
region Tuesday. We could continue to see some wrap around moisture
through Wednesday morning. PWAT values Monday are generally between
1 and 1.25 inches across the forecast area, in the 99th or above
NAEFS percentile. These PWAT values start to decrease towards 0.5
inches through the day Tuesday. The potential for more than an inch
of precipitation from Monday morning through Wednesday morning is 50
to 75% along and east of the Missouri River. The chance for more
than 2 inches during the same time frame is 40 to 50% in the
northern portion of the James Valley and along the I-29 corridor.

Temperatures for the first half of the forecast will be 10 to 15
degrees above average before colder air moves in behind the low and
drops temps down to around average. Winds the next few days will
gust around 25 mph during the afternoon hours. Monday, with the
incoming low, winds will increase to 35-40 mph across most of the
forecast area, perhaps reaching 45 mph or higher across central SD.
Fog will also be possible after the rain Saturday, however, cloud
cover may keep this from materializing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main aviation concern for this forecast will be rain showers moving
into the area this evening into tonight. Coverage of these showers
will begin over central South Dakota this evening, before spreading
to the rest of the forecast area overnight tonight. With this
showers will come a MVFR to IFR cloud deck, and areas under the
heaviest showers may even see LIFR ceilings. Given that coverage of
these showers is expected to be scattered at best, confidence
remains somewhat low on the rain potential directly at the TAF
sites. Therefore have kept the showers in PROB30 groupings for the
time being. Showers will move out of the forecast area Saturday
morning, but flight category reductions from the low cloud deck will
continue through the duration of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...BC