668
FXUS63 KABR 190829
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
229 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20% chance of light rain over portions of north central
SD this morning. Precipitation amounts of less than 0.05" can be
expected.

- Expect patchy fog over the Prairie Coteau, the higher elevated of
northeastern SD, through mid morning. Visibility is forecast to be
around a mile or greater, with localized dense fog possible. The
lowest visibility will be near sunrise.

- High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s through next Tuesday,
which is around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Warmest temperatures
will be this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 226 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

As of 2 AM, we have some showers moving along the ND/SD border.
These are expected to continue to move west to east across northern
SD through the mid morning hours. Patchy fog is expected around and
on the Prairie Coteau this morning causing some reduced
visibilities. Temperatures this morning are in the 30s with winds
out of the southwest and generally less than 10 mph.

Once the showers move out this morning, the rest of the short term
looks to be dry. An area of weak low pressure will move across the
region Wednesday before high pressure moves in for Thursday.

Temperatures are the main story for the short term. With winds out
of the south ahead of that weak low pressure, we get a mild shot of
WAA this afternoon (the GFS is a bit stronger than other models on
this) which will continue into the late evening to overnight hours
and help keep overnight temps a bit warmer, at least over eastern
SD. Warmer air also moves in with the high pressure to continue the
above average temps trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The long term portion of the forecast will feature above average
temperature through the weekend, with colder air moving into the
region by Thanksgiving. The overall pattern favors mostly dry
conditions through the period.

The period begins with northwesterly flow aloft with warmer air
moving into the region. Depending on deterministic mode used, a
couple of dry frontal passage may cross the region, with each one
producing mixing winds. 925 mb temps are mild for this time of year
with the ECMWF and GFS in the single digits to around 10C. The GFS
does cool down some on Sunday, with the ECMWF maintaining warm air
aloft. Even with cool 925 mb temps on Sunday around +5C, these
readings are still at or above the 75th percentile.

Next week, the GFS and ECMWF show a potent low pressure system
crossing southern Canada, with a surface cold front sweeping across
the northern plains. Timing of the cold front yields a wide range
with temperatures, especially on Tuesday. The NBM shows highs at
Aberdeen on Tuesday could be in the upper 40s, or in the mid 30s.
While the current NBM shows dry conditions, there are some ensemble
members suggesting some pcpn on Tuesday, mostly associated with a
storm system across the central and southern plains. Stay tuned as
models will likely struggle with the split flow, or no split flow
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The layer of MVFR/IFR stratus continues to migrate across the CWA.
It will shortly move into KATY, but likewise shortly move out of
KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...07