074
FXUS63 KABR 022341
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
541 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain and drizzle will continue before slowly diminishing
  over central SD Tuesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be
  light, ranging from 0.01 to 0.4 inches, with the highest
  amounts east of a line from Groton to Redfield through Tuesday
  afternoon. A 50-80% chance of light rain will continue over
  northeastern SD/west central MN into Wednesday night.

- Winds out of the north will gust 30 to 45 mph, lowest over
  west central MN. Higher gusts nearing 45 to 50 mph mainly
  west of the Missouri River. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
  portions of central SD through Tuesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The steady moderate to heavy rain has come to an end as the cold
shift has moved into western MN. Still, plenty of light rain and
drizzle remains. Precipitation totals through the day Tuesday
will be light, with a 40% chance of over 0.25" east of a line
from Groton to Redfield. Additional rain will wrap into the area
(northeastern SD/west central MN through Wednesday evening). The
main changes this evening were to keep at least the mention of
light rain through the area and increase the temperatures for
tonight. Lows will only be in the 40s, with nearly steady
temperatures expected during the daytime hours Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

As of 12pm, the center of the ~994mb low is hovering right over the
James River Valley with its cold front extending southward into NE.
East of the James River is still within the warm sector in south to
slight southeasterly flow where west of the James River is in
northwest to northerly flow behind the fropa. Per marginally steep
pressure gradients and weak CAA on the backside of the low, winds
will start to pick up across central SD this afternoon with gusts of
35 to 45 mph through this evening, with the highest gusts along and
west of the Mo River where a Wind Advisory has been issued.
Locally higher gusts are possible. With this position of the
low/front, areas between the Mo and James River are within the
dry slot with little to no rain falling as locations west of the
Mo is on the southern edge of the comma/wrap around with
scattered light rain showers. Rain also continues over far
NESD/MN.

The HRRR continues to show the threat for spotty thunderstorms
developing along the cold front (south of the warm front within the
warm sector) mainly across the Coteau and eastward this afternoon
into the early evening (~19-23Z). For this area, REFs SBCape is
pretty marginal (about 200j/kg) with a potential max of
500-1000j/kg and wind shear of 25-30kts. However, mid level
lapse rates are pretty weak with values of 4-5C/km. With this
cyclonic flow around the center of the low, REFS actually
indicates 0-1km SRH of 200- 300m2s2 and STP is up to 0.5 for a
few hours over eastern central SD (with the threat more south of
the CWA) and 0-1km shear around 20-25kts giving a slight curved
hodograph. So to reiterate, severe weather is not anticipated,
however, if convective parameters come together perfectly there
could be the potential for an isolated supercell or two capable
of producing a tornado. Again the chances of this happening are
very low, but not zero. SPC does not have this region outlooked
for any severe weather with just general thunderstorms possible.

By 00Z, the center of the low will continue to slowly track
northeast and positioned over SD/ND/MN border with the low over
~northeastern MN/WI by 12Z Tuesday. ENS is still a bit slower
and more southwest with the track than GEFS at this point. This
evening HRRR/REFS both indicate scattered rain showers ongoing
across western SD to portions of central SD (mainly north
central SD). Models both show the rain really tapering off over
much of the CWA by midnight, if not before, keeping coverage
pretty spotty (with the exception of far NE/SD closer to the
low). REFS/HRRR really does not have the rain filling back in
(and really James Valley and eastward) until late morning or
midday on Tuesday with rain continuing over this area through
Tuesday night. A secondary low to our south (tracking northeast
Tuesday night into Wednesday across IA into MN/WI) will bring
reinforced moisture, leading to more wrap around rain showers
during this time and even spreading back further west of the
James Valley Wednesday. The rain will finally taper off from the
Mo River eastward Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
Probability of additional rainfall amounts of one inch or more
is 40 to 70% James Valley and eastward and highest along and
east of I29.

As the weak CAA spreads eastward (and ongoing steep pressure
gradients) the stronger winds will also spread eastward through the
overnight hours with gusts of 30 to 45 mph across the entire CWA by
Tuesday morning where it will remain gusty. Winds diminish a bit
Tuesday evening into Wednesday, but still remain breezy, with gusts
of 25 to 35 mph. Overall, winds really do not diminishing until late
Thursday or so.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Light rain and drizzle remain, at least in the VC of the TAF
sites. Expect mainly MVFR to IFR conditions to continue through
the period, with the lowest ceilings/visibility at ATY where IFR
conditions will dominate with the potential for temporary LIFR
ceilings as well. Ceilings will improve to MVFR at PIR/MBG
during the afternoon hours Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MST Tuesday for SDZ003-015.
     Wind Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for SDZ033-
     045-048.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...06