743
FXUS63 KABR 242029
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
329 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A small chance (15 to 20 percent) for a strong to severe
  thunderstorm will be possible this evening across the east,
  then for some rain shower activity along and west of the James
  River Valley late tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Two rounds of moisture for late in the week. Convection for
  Wednesday night/Thursday (30-50%) and showers and thunderstorms
  with a system early Friday (30-60%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The upper level pattern will feature nearly zonal flow tonight, with
some weak shortwave energy tracking across the state later tonight.
The flow becomes more northwesterly on Tuesday and Tuesday night as
ridging build over the Rockies.

At the surface, a frontal boundary currently extends from northeast
to southwest across the CWA. Very warm temperatures and high dew
points have resulted in humid conditions across the area today.
Parts of the area remain in a Heat Advisory through early evening.
There is a chance that a few thunderstorms could develop across the
far northeastern part of the CWA this evening, but the area is under
a fairly strong cap (H7 temps of +14C to +16C), so the chances are
very low. Should a storm be able to develop, large hail and strong
wind gusts would be possible. As the front continues to slide
east/southeast tonight, will begin to see some drier air settle in
over the region. A weak boundary will accompany the aforementioned
upper level energy, and may result in some rain shower activity
along and west of the James River Valley late tonight into Tuesday
morning. High pressure will then move in, with dry conditions
expected Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.
Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Wednesday, an upper level ridge moves into the area and will last
through the day Thursday. However, a shortwave will move along the
ridge Thursday bringing rain chances to the area. Friday, rain
chances continue ahead of a low pressure system as the cold front
moves west to east across the region. Saturday the low moves east
and out of the area. Sunday another ridge builds in and will last
through the end of the period.

Thursday morning, rain chances move west to east across the area
with 50 to 70% chances west of the James River (highest in central
and south central SD). Chances continue overnight and increase
Friday morning with 60 to 70% PoPs north of I-90. This will decrease
west to east through the day. Chances have decreased for Saturday
morning with just 20 to 30% along and south of I-90, less north of I-
90. Accumulations during these 3 days are still expected to be less
than an inch. Chances of more than a quarter of an inch are between
50 and 70% across the entire CWA.

Temperatures will be closer to normal for the first part of the long
term and then dip below average after Saturday. Some stronger winds
are possible Thursday afternoon with gusts up to around 30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of MVFR cigs over north central South Dakota will
gradually dissipate by early afternoon. Otherwise, for the most
part, VFR conditions will prevail through the the TAF period.
There is a small chance for a few thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening across the far eastern part of the area.
Periods of MVFR vsbys will be possible with any thunderstorms.
There is also a chance for some additional shower development
across mainly central South Dakota late tonight into Tuesday
morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ006-017>023-
     035>037-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin