780
FXUS63 KABR 241037
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
437 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter conditions arrive Tuesday, with strong northwesterly winds
and snow for many locations. Below normal temperatures are also
expected through the beginning of December, with below zero wind
chills possible over northern South Dakota.

- Rain Monday night (70% chance) will transition to snow Tuesday
morning. The snow will fall light to moderately at times over
northeast South Dakota and west-central Minnesota on Tuesday
afternoon before ending Tuesday night. There is a 30 percent chance
of 2 inches of snow or greater north of a line from McIntosh and
Mobridge to Redfield and Watertown, and a 60 percent chance or
greater over far northeastern South Dakota and west central
Minnesota. The highest amounts expected over Marshall County. Patchy
blowing snow will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday evening over
north central to northeastern South Dakota and west central
Minnesota.

- Winds will increase out of the northwest overnight through
Tuesday, with gusts of 30 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will be
over south central South Dakota, where gusts near 60 mph are
forecast. Portions of south central South Dakota will jump to the
very high Grassland Fire Danger Index values Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Today is the calm before the significant change to our overall
weather. The current surface weather map shows low pressure over
Ontario with a cold front sining across roughly the northern half
of South Dakota. after a brief increase in winds behind the front
winds will diminish to around 10 mph or less for the rest of the
day. Low pressure over MT and WY will move over western SD by 03Z
this evening as light rain begins over central SD. The rain will
expand to the rest of the forecast area overnight. Falling
temperatures will break a rain and snow to portions of northern SD
already by 12Z Tuesday, with snow being the predominant weather
type by 18Z for all but west central MN. The surface low will
track to eastern SD by 12Z Tuesday and deepen across southern MN
by 18Z and WI through the rest of the daytime hours. A tightening
pressure gradient and plenty of cold air advection will result in
strong winds over much of the area.

Winds will increase out of the northwest overnight through
Tuesday, with gusts of 30 to 50 mph (lightest over west central
MN). The strongest winds will be over south central South Dakota,
where gusts near 60 mph are forecast. As a result, a High Wind
Warning has been issued for Stanley, Jones, and Lyman Counties.
Portions of south central South Dakota will jump to the very high
Grassland Fire Danger Index values Tuesday afternoon despite
relative humidity values in the 60 to 70 percent range, as little
no no precipitation is expected there.

Unfortunately precipitation wise, there is still a lot of
variability in forecast solutions. The highest snowfall amounts
for this storm have shifted slightly farther south over the
Northern Plains. Given the uncertainty, the Winter Storm Watch
over portions of ND and northern MN has been expanded to include
Marshall, Roberts, and Traverse Counties of northeastern SD and
west central MN. Heavy snow is possible. There is a 50 to 70 percent
chance of at least 4 inches of snow. The highest snowfall amounts
are expected over Marshall County and northwestern Roberts
County. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Tuesday afternoon and
evening, which will result in reduced visibilities in blowing and
potentially drifting snow.

Elsewhere, there is a 30 percent chance of 2 inches of snow or
greater north of a line from McIntosh and Mobridge to Redfield and
Watertown. Patchy blowing snow will be possible Tuesday into
Tuesday evening over north central to northeastern South Dakota
and west central Minnesota, with any drifting snow dependent on
how much snow falls.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Snow is forecast to move out of eastern SD, southwest MN, and
northwest IA Tuesday night, with some patchy areas of blowing snow
having to potential to continue into Wednesday morning over
northeastern SD. In the upper-level, northwest flow will be over the
area Wednesday and Thursday, which will continue to advect cold air
through the atmosphere into central and eastern SD, northeast NE,
southwest MN, and northwest IA. This CAA will cause temperatures to
drop to be 5-10 degrees below normal by Thanksgiving and stay cold
through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to
move over the area Wednesday and stay through the day Thursday,
helping to keep precipitation out during that time. The stronger
winds Tuesday will slowly move over eastern SD, southwest MN,
northeast NE, and northwest IA Tuesday night while decreasing its
speed. The winds will continue to decrease through the day
Wednesday, though some stronger wind gusts along the eastern edge of
the Prairie Coteau from some downslope winds and to the east could
be a bit stronger. There is a 30-60% chance for winds to gust over
30mph overnight into Wednesday morning over and east of the Prairie
Coteau (highest long in northeastern SD along the eastern edge of
the Coteau). By the afternoon, the probability for gusts over 30mph
decreases to 20-40% before dropping off after sunset over eastern
SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA.

Starting Thursday night/Friday morning, things become a bit more
uncertain as there is a lot of variability in the models. Thursday
night into Friday morning, some of the models are showing a line of
WAA aloft on the back side of the high pressure. This WAA looks to
help with the development of a band of snow that then moves over
central and eastern SD, northeast NE, southwest MN, and northwest IA
during the day Friday. As with the nature of banded snow event,
there is a lot of variability in location and track of the band as
well as snowfall amounts. After the band of snow moves through, the
variability continues in the models, as some have shortwaves that
push more snow through the area during the weekend and other models
don`t. An eye will need to be kept on this time to see if future
model runs decrease uncertainty for these events as there could be
many traveling after Thanksgiving that could be impacted.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period with
light winds gradually spinning from a south or west direction
clockwise to a northeast or east direction. Close to the end of
the TAF valid period, precipitation (rain) chances begin to ramp
up at the KMBG terminal.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for SDZ007-008.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for SDZ033-045-048.

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for MNZ039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...10