459
FXUS63 KABR 071917
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
217 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms
  over northeast SD and west central MN tonight. The primary
  hazards will be 1 inch in diameter hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
  Additionally, the threat for a tornado or two this evening
  over east central SD cannot be ruled out.

- Northwest wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, low
  relative humidity, and dry cured fuels will create elevated
  fire weather conditions mainly over north central SD on
  Tuesday.

- There is a 20-45 percent chance of 0.25in or more of rainfall
  Saturday night into Sunday and again Sunday night into Monday.

- Temperatures closer to normal (highs mid 70s to low 80s) are
  forecast Wednesday, with below normal temperatures in the 60s
  to low 70s forecast Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

At 2 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly cloudy with ongoing showers
and thunderstorms scattered across the forecast area. A cold front
has moved into the western Dakotas, on its way toward Minnesota
later tonight. Temperatures are warming through the 70, with a few
locations warming into the 80s on south-southeast breezes 15 to 25
mph including gusts at times to 35-45 mph.

The upper level flow pattern, which has included an upper level
ridge parked over the northern plains for several days, is beginning
to break down. Upper level longwave troffing looks to exert more
influence than upper level ridging during the 7-day, knocking at
least a couple of categories of temperature off of high temps during
most of the forecast period.

A cold front will pass over the CWA tonight, with a low level jet
establishing itself across eastern South Dakota prior to the fropa.
Expect the given dynamic and thermodynamic set-up tonight ahead of
the front will either keep the faucet of current thunderstorms
turned on well into this evening, or introduce an entirely separate
period of thunderstorms late this evening across northeast South
Dakota on the nose of the low level jet as it develops. SPC still
has the eastern half of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe
weather tonight. One inch hail and 60 mph damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts are possible.

Breezy/windy west-northwest winds and drier air on Tuesday will be
creating elevated (high to very high) fire danger conditions
especially across north central South Dakota. Criteria for a Red
Flag Warning may night be reached Tuesday afternoon, but perhaps a
Special Weather Statement might be useful to increase the visibility
of Tuesday`s fire weather situation.

Near normal temperatures are forecast Tuesday night through
Wednesday night with the influence of an upper level trof north in
the region before things warm back up briefly Thursday through
Friday when transient upper level ridging works quickly over the
northern CONUS/southern Canada region.

Beyond Friday, the pattern aloft over this CWA becomes influenced
primarily by upper level troffing (cooler than climo normal
conditions?) that should bring a couple of meaningful precipitation
chances to the CWA over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There are pockets of sub-VFR low clouds hiding under the
convective cirrus shield overhead. The stratus appears to have
most recently cleared the KMBG terminal, but is still
intermittently impacting the KABR and KATY terminals. Also, a
large cluster of thunderstorms (recently clear the KPIR
terminal) is moving east-northeast and may impact the KABR and
KATY (low confidence) prior to 00Z this evening. Storms may
persist at the KATY terminal a bit longer into the evening after
00Z. Also, overnight, low level wind shear potential will exist
at the KATY terminal. There is also a cold frontal passage
forecast to happen across all four terminals from early this
evening through early Tuesday morning. South-southeast winds 10
to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will switch behind the front
and become west-northwest, eventually increasing in speed
Tuesday morning to 15 to 30 mph with some gusts at times to 45
mph.

So, an overall trend toward VFR flying weather (including a
decreasing trend in thunderstorm potential) is expected from
west (KPIR/KMBG) to east (KABR/KATY) during the first 12 hours
of the TAF valid period, will all TAFs in dry VFR flying
weather Tuesday morning on west-northwest winds.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10