346
FXUS63 KABR 300544 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1244 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and weak thunderstorms will continue through the weekend.
Severe weather is not expected with this system, though cold air
funnels are possible in the afternoons. Heavier rain or stationary
storms may also pose a flooding threat.

- Precipitation (20-40%) chances on Tuesday, then dry the rest of
the week.

- Cooler (below normal) temperatures in store by Wednesday and
Thursday of next week. Highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 926 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Updated PoPs earlier this evening to account for radar trends.
Most of the precip now seems to be confined to our central SD
zones at this hour. This is where showers and a couple of
thunderstorms will continue to persist into the overnight hours.
Can`t rule out a few isolated showers farther east the remainder
of tonight, but most of the activity should stay west of the James
Valley. Also monitoring fog potential by early Saturday morning.
Latest guidance is suggesting areas of dense fog may be possible
across far northeast SD and west central MN back to the west along
the ND/SD border and into sections of central SD. Will modify the
forecast with respect to the fog if it looks warranted.

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

An H7 low has settled over western SD this afternoon and continues
to generate some showers across central SD. While the H7 low is
helping to amp up mid level moisture, there`s also southerly surface
flow ahead of a sfc low in western NE that continues to push
dewpoints into the 60s and PWATs up over 1.5 inches. Shortwave
energy also adds to the forcing. Earlier this afternoon, there were
a couple of reports of cold air funnels in Marshall county.
Afternoon convection coupled with the cooler air aloft is making
conditions favorable for funnels on the upslope of the Coteau.

The other concern with the daytime heating convection is the threat
for localized flooding with very slow moving storms over already
saturated soil in the east. On the positive side, these cells should
dissipate with sunset. Precipitation under the H7 and a southerly
descending H5 low into Saturday and Sunday will linger more over
central SD. Given the high PWATs and slow moving system, some models
are accumulating upwards of 4 to 6 inches over a 72 hour period over
portions of central SD. If the rain is stretched over the weekend,
the soils are drier in central SD, especially south of Pierre and
will be able to handle the absorption. We will continue to monitor
for any increased rates in thunderstorms that may result in runoff.

A cold front swings through Tuesday night bringing the potential for
temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight if clouds clear. Highs
on Wednesday appear to be 10 to 15 degrees below average for early
September, in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms will continue
overnight and through this afternoon. This will mainly effect
KPIR/KMBG terminals overnight with MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys. More
scattered showers and storms will remain across central South Dakota
during the day Saturday with more widely scattered activity at
KABR/KATY during the afternoon. More prevalent at KPIR where
persistent MVFR cigs will hold the majority of the day. Winds will
remain relatively light from the east to southeast through the
period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...Vipond