017
FXUS63 KABR 260007 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
707 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms with high
  winds (75+ mph) across central South Dakota this
  afternoon/evening. Lower risk for severe weather elsewhere.

- Heat Advisory through the weekend, with heat indices from upper
  90s to around 110 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Main forecast changes this evening have revolved around POP
updates to account for ongoing convection. The more organized
group of storms is now moving into the KHON area and is in the
right environment to become a more organized line. This line
could extend back into our area (Hamlin/Deuel counties) as the
system develops. Meanwhile, the cluster of storms further north
in the Dewey/Corson county region is less organized, but still
monitoring for severe wind gusts given favorable DCAPE values
across the entire region. That said, CAMS suggest this activity
will diminish as it moves eastward.

The severe thunderstorm watch has been extended to include
portions of north central South Dakota, the heat advisory
continues unchanged, and the TAF discussion has been updated
below.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Convection already beginning to fire across western SD, approaching
the CWA. Any stronger cores that develop capable of strong wind
gusts over 70 mph. Threat for severe weather still appears maximized
over central SD late this afternoon into early evening. PoPs have
come in a little higher to around 50-70% early this evening. HRRR
continues to be the more aggressive of the CAMs in regards to
convective areal coverage, but based on what`s happening early this
afternoon, it may be on to something. Will continue to monitor
convective trends and severe potential this afternoon and make
changes to messaging/forecast as necessary.

Also watching the high heat and humidity today. Central SD is
currently in the low 100s air temperature, while conditions farther
east are a bit cooler in the upper 80s to low 90s. Although, higher
dewpoints over the east are pushing heat indices close to 100. Will
continue the heat headlines with no changes as the advisory will
extend into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered TSRA/+TSRA is ongoing across central South Dakota
including the KMBG and KPIR TAF sites. Main concern with any
thunderstorm that moves over a TAF site is strong surface winds
of 60-80 mph. This line will track east potentially effecting
KABR/KATY before 06Z. Will amend TAFs as necessary to account
for storm timing/track. Once storms exit the region or
dissipate, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for SDZ003>011-
     015>023-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...Serr