692
FXUS63 KABR 021129 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
529 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues across the forecast area this morning. The steady
rain will become more scattered/spotty Monday afternoon before
filling back in Monday night. A few rumbles of thunder are possible.

- There is a 65 to 90% chance of 2" or more rain through Tuesday,
and an 40% chance of 3" or more mainly along the James River valley.

- Winds out of the north will gust 45 to 55 mph late Monday
afternoon into Monday evening near and west of the Missouri River,
and linger over portions of south central South Dakota into Tuesday
afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of central SD
between 1 PM MST today and 11 AM MST Tuesday.

- A 50-70% chance of light rain will remain over northeastern SD and
west central MN through the day Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

As of 1 AM CST, temperatures across the region are in the mid 50s
with winds out of the southeast generally between 10 and 15 mph.
There are some areas with higher wind gusts, but this is mainly
around the Sisseton Hills.

A cold front and low pressure system will move across the area today
bringing widespread rain. The heaviest rainfall will be through the
rest of this morning. The low is expected to track right across the
forecast area resulting in probable dry slotting, especially across
southern portions of the CWA, which would reduce accumulations this
afternoon. There is also a chance for some weak thunderstorms across
south central and northeast SD this morning. Accumulations have a 40
to 70% chance of exceeding 2 inches between this morning and Tuesday
morning mainly north of Hwy 12 with highest chances west of US 281.
Again, most of this will fall this morning with lighter rainfall
through the afternoon hours into Tuesday morning. Accumulations from
now through Tuesday evening have a 65 to 90% chance of exceeding 2
inches from the Missouri River east through west central MN. Chances
fall off to the west of the Missouri. Looking past Wednesday, when
we could still see some light accumulations from wrap around
moisture, we see just some slight chances for light rain through the
end of the period.

Along with the rain today, we have strong wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph
across central SD this afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued
for counties west of the Missouri River from 1 PM MST today through
6 AM MST Tuesday for Corson and Dewey counties and 3 PM MST today
through 11 AM MST Tuesday for Stanley, Jones, and Lyman counties (4
PM to noon CST). The REFS is showing a 50 to 70% of gusts of 45 mph
or higher this evening into early Tuesday morning with the NBM
showing chances as 60 to 80%. These wind gusts are expected to
continue through the overnight and into Tuesday morning across south
central SD. Winds will die off a few hours after sunset Tuesday
evening across the entire forecast area.

Temperatures following this low pressure system will be about 10
degrees cooler and right about average. This trend continues through
the end of the forecast period with some slightly above average
temperatures creeping right at the end of the period for central SD.
As mentioned above, we have some strong winds with this low pressure
system that will continue through Tuesday. For areas east of the
Missouri River, gusts will be in the 30-40 mph range. This is still
6 days out, but models are starting to show some stronger wind gusts
of 30-35 mph across central SD for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/IFR conditions is expected today as a low pressure
system brings rain to the area. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind the low this afternoon and gust to around 40
kts near KMBG and KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MST Tuesday for
     SDZ003-015.
     Wind Advisory from 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ this afternoon to noon
     CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for SDZ033-045-048.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20