618
FXUS63 KABR 031924
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
224 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active pattern continues with showers and thunderstorms
  expected through Tuesday night. Any additional heavy rain east
  of the James Valley maintains a flood threat due to saturated
  soils.

- There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms each day
  through Tuesday for portions of the area from the James Valley
  west. Strong winds will be the primary threat each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

At 2 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly cloudy and temperatures are
in the 60s and 70s (Pierre`s up to 80F degrees). Winds are from the
south around 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. A few lingering
showers are over the far northeast corner of the CWA moving east-
northeast into Minnesota.

Tonight through Monday night, there is a 20 to 50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the central/eastern
forecast zones, tied to the two circulations over west central
Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. The best shear and instability
in the period is Monday afternoon through late Monday night further
west across and west of the Missouri River valley, where non-CAM
model solutions currently generate night-time thunderstorms,
presumably off lee-of-the-Rockies/Black Hills surface low pressure
troffing when the low level jet pointing toward the western Dakotas
gets going.

Near surface smoke has pretty much dissipated/advected north out of
the CWA. Smoke aloft has pretty much moved out of the area, too.
However smoke model guidance does show another round of western
CONUS wildfire smoke aloft working into the CWA on Monday. A lot of
uncertainty surrounds whether or not smoke aloft will persist into
Tuesday. Temperatures through Monday night should near to slightly
below normal.

The forecast flow pattern aloft (ensemble clusters analysis) remains
relatively unchanged; an upper level ridge to the west of the CWA
will move over and east of the region through Thursday night. 594dm
heights are progged to remain just south of the CWA throughout this
period of height rises. From Friday onward, 500hpa heights begin to
gradually decrease as a longwave trof off the west coast moves
inland past the intermountain west onto the northern high
plains/northern plains region by the end of the period.
Precipitation chances (ensemble qpf clusters analysis) continue, at
a premium, in the out periods. The highest PoPs (40-65%) are
currently anchored on Tuesday night, covering the majority of north
central and northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota. Will
monitor trends for smoke aloft on Tuesday onward during the next
several shifts.  Ensemble 850hpa temp anomalies and deterministic
low level thermal progs show the warmest air in the 7-day are
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures, perhaps, as much as 10 degrees
above normal are possible at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The TAF valid period is going to be a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions
(mainly cigs bouncing around). Daytime heating is raising cigs and
also dissipating low cloud coverage. However, later tonight after
03Z, the low cigs are forecast to return, at least at KMBG, KABR
and KATY, and stick around into Monday until daytime
heating/mixing has a chance to improve things. Confidence is also
pretty low in shower/thunderstorm timing and coverage this
afternoon into tonight. Most guidance has precipitation pretty
isolated/widely scattered. The likelihood of a shower or
thunderstorm occurring over/near any of the 4 terminals is pretty
low.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10