368
FXUS63 KABR 281737
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1137 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of snow develops this morning in central and north central
South Dakota, moving eastward into northeast South Dakota and west
central Minnesota this afternoon. More widespread light to moderate
snowfall is expected tonight through Saturday morning. Winter
weather headlines remain in place for this system.

- Below normal temperatures continue through at least the middle of
next week. Coldest timeframe is Sunday/Monday with temps 15 to 25
degrees below normal. Wind chills as cold as 5 to 15 degrees below
zero forecast for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Dry air in profiles is delaying onset of snowfall for about 2 to 3
hours, but otherwise progression of the band and rapid snow
accumulations therein are on-target. Winds have also been below
NBM and as such have tempered winds/gusts and the blowing/drifting
snow threat. No additional major changes to the forecast moving
forwards otherwise.

See below for an update to the aviation discussion...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Current sfc analysis indicates high pressure draped across
the eastern Dakotas and western MN while an area of low pressure is
centered across eastern WY. Satellite imagery indicates a mix of
low stratus with mid/high clouds drifting overhead. Areas of fog
continue to affect portions of north central SD, mainly from
Corson and Dewey Counties east into Walworth, Potter and Faulk
Counties as well as over portions of the Glacial Lakes/Prairie
Coteau region. The fog across central SD should gradually improve
as a storm system shifts out of the Rockies into the Plains this
morning. The fog may hold out longer in those eastern zones at
least through mid morning.

The main focus will be on that aforementioned storm system that is
set to deliver another round of snowfall to our forecast area today
into Saturday. Current radar imagery shows some of this snow already
shifting east-southeast across western SD into our far western
zones. Some webcams in our area do show that in fact snow is
falling. For today, the low pressure system in WY will sink
southeast into NE. An inverted trough extending north from the sfc
low will track across western SD this afternoon and evening and
eventually across central and eastern SD tonight through Saturday
morning. A band or multiple bands of snow will set up northwest to
southeast across central SD this morning before tracking east into
northeast SD and west central MN closer to midday and afternoon.
This is all thanks to mid level warm advection induced frontogenetic
forcing and an upper jet streak that will be most prominent during
the morning hours today before weakening this afternoon. After this
WAA induced snowfall the first half of today, we could see a lull in
the action across parts of central/south central SD this afternoon
before the upper trough axis tracks southeast into the western
Dakotas tonight into Saturday morning kicking off another round of
steadier snowfall that will track east into northeast/east central
SD early Saturday. Still some questions remain as far as snowfall
intensity with this system. BUFKIT sounding still indicate a
deepening saturated column through the DGZ with increasing Omega as
we get into the late evening and overnight hours. Therefore, snow to
liquid ratios remain on the high side, 16-19:1 but at the same time
the HREF probabilities for snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour
remain zero for the duration of this event. Nevertheless, would
anticipate the bulk of the snowfall will occur during the second
phase of this storm system.

Accumulations and headlines haven`t changed a great deal from
previous forecast issuances. Still expecting the heavier swath of
snowfall(5-7 inches) to set up from north central sections of SD
south and east toward the Gettysburg/Faulkton areas and then
southward into the Miller/Redfield areas where a Winter Storm
Warning remains posted. We could see some enhancement across our far
southeast zones up along the spine of the Prairie Coteau in Deuel
and Grant Counties. Also, anticipate more in the way of accumulation
across south central SD, including the Murdo area where wind gusts
will be the strongest and better potential for blowing and drifting.
Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory for Jones County and also Big
Stone County as expected snowfall came up just a bit there too. Snow
will gradually taper off and end from west to east by mid to late
afternoon Saturday. Temperatures through this period will remain
chilly and much below normal for late November with overnight lows
in the low to mid teens and highs only in the upper teens to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The long term starts Saturday evening with our upper level trough
exiting SD and moving farther into MN and IA. We move into more
westerly flow aloft Sunday into Monday. The next trough dips down
out of southern Canada later Monday afternoon and models disagree as
to how far into SD it reaches. The EC and Canadian are more shallow,
mostly impacting northeastern SD, while the GFS has it reaching much
farther south. Another trough heads out of Canada Wednesday evening
into Thursday morning. The center of the low looks to stay in Canada
so it doesn`t look like we will feel much impacts if it stays on
that track. Down towards the surface, high pressure moves in Sunday,
behind the low which will bring us a few days of dry weather.
Wednesday, the lower level trough moves across bringing a chance for
some snow. Models are starting to show a disturbance move across the
Dakotas Thursday into Friday.

Ahead of the Wednesday trough we get some slight chances for snow,
mainly west of the James River. Doesn`t look like much at the moment
in the way of accumulation, although this is still 5 days out so
there is plenty of time for that to change. Some WAA on Monday and
Tuesday will bring us just slightly warmer temperatures, bringing us
back into the 20s for highs across northeastern SD and potentially
into the mid 30s for central SD. Wednesday looks to be a little
cooler before we get another shot of WAA on Thursday. Sunday,
Monday, and Tuesday mornings are still expected to be quite cold
with wind chills in the teens below zero. Sunday and Monday mornings
look to be the coldest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for KATY currently, while under a snow band we have
IFR CIGS/VISBY. That feature is headed away for KPIR/KMBG and
towards KABR and eventually KATY. There will be a break this
evening with just some persistent MVFR CIGS, before another round
of snow brings back IFR CIGS/VISBY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST
     Saturday for SDZ007-008-011-020>023.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for
     SDZ003-009-010-015>017-034-036-037.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for
     SDZ004-033-035-045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for SDZ005-006-
     018-019.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST
     Saturday for MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...07