784
FXUS63 KABR 271940
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
240 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain over central SD will expand across northeastern SD and west
central MN Monday night, before exiting east during the day Tuesday.
A few thunderstorms will be possible.

- Rainfall amounts of around a tenth of an inch to up to an inch is
forecast through Tuesday, with the highest amounts over north
central SD.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Fog has weakened. As a result, the Dense Fog Advisory has been
allowed to expire. Showers remain over central South Dakota,
with a few isolated severe storms mainly west of the Missouri
River from mid morning through the early afternoon hours. The
mention of thunderstorms has been added to the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The latest surface weather map shows a cold front stretching from
southwestern SD to northeastern SD. Relative humidity values will be
in the 30 to 40 percent range (dewpoints in the 40s) north of the
front, while in the 60-85% range south (dewpoints in the 60s). Off
and on showers will continue over mainly central SD near the
boundary. A few have been strong to severe from mid morning through
the early afternoon hours. While the intensity of these storms has
diminished, a few showers linger linger across central SD.

The cold front will push north tonight, into ND by daybreak Monday
as low pressure surges north across WY. Winds will increase out of
the south during the day Monday ahead of the surface low that will
set up across western SD. Gusts of 15-30kts are expected Monday
afternoon, strongest west of the James River. More steady rain west
of the Missouri River early Monday morning will expand across
northeastern SD late Monday into Tuesday, before slowly ending west
to east during the day Tuesday as the surface low crosses central to
northeastern SD.

Weak thunderstorms will accompany some of the rain, with the CAMs
indicating the highest potential in the near term being over north
central SD 10-14Z Monday. Forecast rainfall amounts have diminished
around 0.25 in a few locations, mainly over northern SD. The current
forecast range is from around a tenth of an inch to potentially up
too an inch. The highest rainfall amounts are forecast over north
central SD.

A large area of high pressure over MT Thursday morning will push
across the Dakotas Thursday and over MN southeastern SD on Friday.
This will bring cooler and drier weather to the forecast area, with
highs mainly in the 60s Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

We`re starting out this afternoon with showers and a few
thunderstorms over central SD, mainly around PIR. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are over both MBG and ABR. While most locations will
fluctuate between MVFR and VFR. IFR ceilings are expected around
daybreak at ATY, with the potential of fog that may be added
later if confidence increases.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06