422
FXUS63 KABR 291927
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
227 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms tonight, then
  again Sunday afternoon/night. Main threats include wind gusts
  up around 60 mph along with quarter size hail.

- Temperatures will remain 5-7 degrees above normal (80s to lower
  90s) through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Mid-level clouds with bases around 15k feet (give or take) continue
across the eastern CWA but look to be exiting over the next few
hours, also taking with it any sprinkles associated with them. Still
expect to see a lull in precip potential for the rest of the
afternoon into early evening. Focus for shower/thunderstorm
development later today will shift into eastern WY/CO into the NE
panhandle northward into western SD. SPC REFS and HREF ensemble
paintball output shows any potential activity moving into central SD
generally between 02Z-05Z, then spreading eastward across the CWA
during the overnight hours. Areal coverage looks to diminish east of
the James River from 09Z to 12Z. Current PoPs generally show this
idea where good agreement in the paintball output over central/north
central SD gives 60-90% chances for precip, diminishing to 30
percent or less east of the James River after 09Z. MUCAPE overnight
generally around 1000-1500 J/KG across central SD into the James
valley, with 30-40 kts effective shear. Marginal Risk continues for
the overnight hours, with main threats being winds up to around 60
mph and hail around quarter size.

On Sunday, a surface low will develop near the MT/ND border
southward across western SD. A warm front will also extend eastward
from this low across SD into southern MN. Surface dewpoints still
progged to reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees across the
region, while cooling aloft occurs later in the day with the
approach of a shortwave trough. Expecting scattered storms to
develop by late afternoon near the surface low, with activity moving
eastward into the evening and overnight hours. Marginal Risk (level
1 out of 5) for severe storms exists again on Sunday.

Surface high pressure builds in across the area on Monday, with
lower dewpoints dropping into the 50s for most areas. Much more
stable air mass in place on Monday, so a dry forecast is in place
for the time being.

Precipitation chances (40-60%) return to the region Tuesday/Tuesday
night as shortwave energy moves northeast into the area. Low-level
moisture begins to increase once again with dewpoints forecast to
reach the mid/upper 60s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the daytime hours
today. Scattered TSRA/SHRA are expected to move east across the
region this evening into the overnight hours. Will use PROB30 to
handle this for the time being, although indications suggest
northern SD may see higher areal coverage of precipitation vs
other areas. Any TSRA/SHRA that moves over a TAF site is capable
of brief MVFR/IFR VSBY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT