162
FXUS63 KABR 241125 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild today, with highs in the 70s.

- Above normal temperatures return Wednesday through the
  weekend, with Thursday seeing the warmest temperatures
  (mainly in the 80s).

- Areas around the James River Valley and west will likely
  see strong wind gusts (around 35 mph) Thursday morning into
  the afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

An upper level trough currently over the Northern Plains will exit
to the east of the CWA by late this afternoon. The region will be
between the exiting trough and ridging over the Rockies tonight,
with the ridge translating eastward to extend from New Mexico to
south central Canada on Wednesday.

At the surface, the low pressure system that brought rain showers
and a few weak thunderstorms to the region on Monday will be just
east of the CWA at 12Z today, with high pressure approaching from
the west. This high will be the dominant feature over the CWA this
afternoon through early Wednesday morning, after which it will get
pushed east ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Will
see a tightening pressure gradient Wednesday afternoon, with some
wind gusts in excess of 30 mph possible, mainly west of the Missouri
River. Winds will shift to a southerly direction, ushering warmer
air into the region. No precipitation is expected during the near
term period.

High temperatures today will be in the 70s. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Wednesday
will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Wednesday night we are under a strong upper level ridge with one low
to our west off the coast of British Columbia and another over the
midwest. As the western low moves almost due east and the southern
low moves northwest, the ridge in between becomes more and more
deformed. Once the Canadian low is almost directly north of us on
Friday, the ridge starts to push it in more of a northeasterly
direction to keep our area in high pressure. This does degrade the
high somewhat and it gets cut off from the flow by Sunday as the
southern low moves into MI/IL. However, a pretty strong high forms
over the desert southwest with a ridge reaching to cover our area
and this low never really makes it any farther west. There is good
agreement between the EC and the GFS on this but the Canadian is
showing a different solution without a high over the southwest. This
brings a trough into the area Monday night that develops into a low
on Tuesday. Clusters seem to gravitate towards the first solution.
At the surface, on Monday, a low and a cold front look to pass
across the region. This has been fairly consistent across model runs
but there is still time for this to change.

Monday is really our only chance for some precipitation. There are
some slight chance (up to 15%) PoPs scattered across mainly far
eastern SD and west central MN for Monday afternoon. This is
slightly less than past model runs and could end up as a low QPF
event. Otherwise, the long term is dry. Temperatures are still
looking to be decreasing through the period after a peak on
Thursday. The NBM is now showing temperatures west river of more
than 20 degrees above normal with 15-20 degrees above normal temps
for the rest of the forecast area.  Friday and Saturday are also
expected to have highs 15-20 degrees above normal. Sunday starts the
cool down and by Tuesday highs are looking to be right around
normal, or in the mid 60s. Thursday, as we get some low pressure
coming up against high pressure as the trough tries to break into
our region, wind gusts west of the James River valley could
potentially exceed 35 mph. This has also been consistent in the
models. Monday and Tuesday afternoons look to be windier as well,
again, west of the James River valley with gusts around 35 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin