743
FXUS63 KABR 141843
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
143 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and weak thunderstorms (20-40%) are expected over north
central and northeastern SD this afternoon and evening. No severe
weather is anticipated, however, heavy rainfall is possible at times.

- Additional spotty chances of rain and weak thunderstorms (15-30%)
will be possible tonight through Saturday afternoon across central
and northeastern SD.

- Average to slightly below average temperatures expected through
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

As of 18z, there are scattered showers over portions of north
central SD. These showers are connected to the Lee of the Rockies
surface trough over western SD that has started to move east. This
trough will continue to move through western and central SD this
afternoon and into the evening. A little bit of instability will be
developing over western SD this afternoon, with models showing
between 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE, and could help some storms to develop
amongst the showers along the boundary. There is even weaker
instability shear over central SD that will have a hard time
supporting the storms when they move through during the evening into
the early overnight hours. This will likely cause the storms to
dissipate before they are able to reach northeastern SD. With shear
values around 30kts and weak lapse rates, it will be hard for the
storms to become severe. However, there could be an occasional non-
severe but strong wind gusts from pop up or dying storms.
Additionally, with the upper and mid level flow from the southwest,
there is a lot of moisture being pulling into central and
northeastern SD. This could help the scattered showers and storms to
develop localized heavy downpours this afternoon into the early
overnight hours.

The showers and storms look to die back overnight into Saturday
morning, though some models show an isolated shower or two trying to
pop up occasionally. Coming in behind the surface trough is a cold
front that will be moving trough central and northeastern SD
Saturday morning into the afternoon. With a little bit of
instability developing ahead of the front through the day, some
scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop along it.
Models show that shear values will be less than 30kt and there will
be weak lapse rates, which will help to keep the storms from
becoming severe if any develop. The cold front, as well as the
chances for showers and storms, will be moving out of central and
northeastern SD during late Saturday afternoon. Behind the cold
front, high surface pressure will be moving in and will help to keep
precipitation from forming during the evening overnight into Sunday.

Temperatures will be around normal to slightly cooler than normal
today though Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low
80s through the weekend. Then a bit of warmer air will be moving in
Sunday night into the beginning of the week, which will help the
temperatures to warm slightly. The southwesterly flow aloft will
continue to help to move wildfire smoke out of central and
northeastern SD the next couple of days. This will help to keep the
skies from becoming hazy from the smoke.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There are lower clouds at KPIR that will continue for a few hours
creating MVFR to IFR conditions at times. While these conditions
look to improve to VFR later in the afternoon, the conditions at
KATY will start to decrease as lower clouds are forecast to move in
creating MVFR conditions during the evening and IFR conditions later
during the overnight. Some patchy fog also looks to move in to KATY
and KABR early Saturday morning, reducing visibilities and
conditions to MVFR to IFR and even possibility LIFR at KATY.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at the other terminals.
Southeasterly winds will increase during the afternoon, to be
gusting up around 25 mph. The winds will decrease overnight and turn
to be from the northwest as a cold front comes through early
Saturday morning. There could be occasional showers and storms near
the terminals through today and into Saturday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12