497
FXUS63 KABR 031832
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1232 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain moves back in over east central SD late this
afternoon and evening then spreads northwestward through the James
Valley. Rain continues into Wednesday before tapering off northwest
to southeast Wednesday afternoon through the late evening.

- The chance for additional rainfall amounts of a half inch or more
is 50 to 90% along and east of the Sisseton Hills, with a 50 to 65%
chance for an inch or more mainly east of I29.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

One low pressure system has moved out and currently resides over the
Great Lakes region with another one that will clip the region,
bringing another round of rain for the eastern half of the CWA.
HRRR/REFS indicate the center of the low is over the borders of
KS/MO/IA as of 18Z. Through the rest of today and into tonight,
this low will track north/northeastward and over MN/WI border
around 12Z Wednesday, deepening a bit along the way and becoming
fairly stacked aloft. With the CWA on the western side of the
system, HRRR/REFS indicate the outer bands of the wrap around
rain moving back in over east central SD late this
afternoon/evening and spreading north and northwestward through
the James Valley (clipping portions of south central SD) through
tonight. These bands of rain will continue over this area into
Wednesday before the rain tapers off northwest to southeast
Wednesday afternoon with the last of precip exiting east central
SD late Wednesday evening.

Confidence is high on this setup with a bit lower confidence on how
far west the rain will reach as any wobble west or east will shift
the cutoff line of rain vs dry. As of now, REFs is quicker with the
onset of rain over eastern SD than HRRR and further west into the
James Valley. Latest run of the NBM has the cutoff line even further
west than REFS/HRRR with pops of 20-90%, with this cut off line from
around Leola to Gann Valley with the highest pops of 70-90% east of
the James River. Otherwise, most of central SD will stay dry as high
pressure remains dominant. Probability of additional rainfall
amounts of a half inch 00Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday is 50 to
90% Sisseton Hills and eastward (highest SD/MN border) and an inch
or more is 50-65% mainly east of I29. Behind the exiting low, high
pressure will continue to filter in and dry us out Thursday through
Friday with a slightly positive tilted ridge over the region. As of
now, overall dry conditions are forecast into the weekend.

Winds will continue to be gusty through Wednesday due to steeper
pressure gradients across the CWA from this low to our east/southeast
and high to our west. Gusts will range between 20-30kts through
this evening (diminishing slightly overnight)and back up to
around 20-30kts by Wednesday afternoon with highest gusts along
the Coteau. Winds will finally start to diminish northwest to
southeast across the CWA Thursday into Thursday evening and
becoming light as the high moves in. Cooler air continues over
the area with overnight lows forecast to drop into the lower 30s
to around 40. The coolest temps are forecast over north central
SD where we should see a break in the clouds by peak cooling.
If not then temps will be warmer. Highs for Wednesday through
Friday are forecast to range in the 40s to the lower 50s, which
is around normal. Temps will warm to about 5-10 degrees above
normal this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of drizzle will continue mainly at KABR and KATY through
the rest of the afternoon. Another system will bring rain over
east central SD late this afternoon/evening, affecting KATY
first. Rain will then spread north and northwestward to KABR
through Wednesday morning with bands of rain continuing at
these terminals through the TAF period. With ongoing lower
ceilings, cigs will remain at MVFR/IFR at KABR/KATY, with drops
to LIFR potentially at times. MVFR cigs are forecast at
KMBG/KPIR with VFR cigs late in the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...MMM