619
FNUS73 KABR 030428
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Roy Lake SP...SDGFP
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1028 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2300 CST on November 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Westerly winds will persist tonight and through the day Monday.
While winds will lose gustiness overnight and Monday morning,
gusts of 20-25 mph are expected to return Monday afternoon.

A weak surface low pressure system will approach Monday night.
This will switch the winds around to a south, southwesterly
direction with speeds around 10-15 mph expected on Tuesday. There
could be some variability in wind direction/speed Tuesday
afternoon depending on the track of the surface low, however it is
expected that winds shift back around to the northwest by late
Tuesday afternoon/evening, best guess at the wind shift timing
right now is roughly 4-6 pm Tuesday.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 34.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5800 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........10  8   9   11  6   5   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............40  39  38  38  38  37  36
RH..............76  73  71  70  67  67  69
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..10  9   9   10  10  12  12
20 FT wind gust.15  22  21  21  21  21  22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......400-4000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 21 mph decreasing to around 10 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (68600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   21  21  18  4   8   8   13  22  25  16  19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............36  36  35  40  43  46  49  50  51  52  50  48
RH..............72  69  75  62  55  47  40  36  33  31  34  39
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  12  13  13  14  14  13  13  10  8
20 FT wind gust.22  22  22  22  23  24  23  23  24  22  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.0 1.5 0.7
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  PR  PR

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 6 to 9 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......400-500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 14 mph shifting to the south 15
                    to 18 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........22  40  47  48  54  52  45  42  42  43  44  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............44  41  38  37  36  37  38  38  38  38  38  38
RH..............43  48  57  56  61  61  59  59  62  62  62  64
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   9   9
20 FT wind gust.12  10  10  12  12  12  12  13  15  16  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 9 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph shifting to the north around
                    8 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6500 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43  42  40  39  38  37  36  42  49  55  59  62
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............38  39  41  43  46  49  52  54  54  54  53  50
RH..............64  64  62  62  58  54  50  48  50  50  52  58
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   NW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.17  17  17  17  17  17  17  17  17  16  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.1
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...Serr
Requested by...Heath stone
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2524927.0/ABR
.DELDT 11/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL heath.stone@state.sd.us