499
FNAK71 PAFC 181321
FWSAER

Spot Forecast for Avy Acres 125...USFS
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 AM AKST Tue Nov 18 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 AKST on November 18.
.DISCUSSION...

Conditions today will be very similar to those observed on Monday
with some rain and snow showers over the mountains, but overall
failing to make it to the burn area. Shower coverage will decrease
overnight and into Wednesday with some clearing and cooling.
Looking ahead to Thursday, winds and precipitation will increase as
a front moves over the Kenai Peninsula. Temperatures will climb
into upper 30s (possibly lower 40s) with continuous light rain.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
and snow showers.
CWR.................17 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 35.
Min humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 7 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.05 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.
Vent Rate(m/s)......455

TIME (AKST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  79  73  73  73  79  79  79  69  69  69
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  30  30  30  40  40  40  40  40  40
Temp............31  31  31  32  32  33  34  35  35  34  32
RH..............95  95  94  95  93  91  88  85  86  87  88
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.8   8   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   7   7   7

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
and snow showers early in the evening, then slight
                    chance of snow showers late in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 18.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 7 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.
Vent Rate(m/s)......360

TIME (AKST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76  76  76  57  57  57  51  51  51  37  37  37
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  50  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............25  25  24  23  22  23  22  22  21  21  20  20
RH..............90  92  92  94  92  92  94  94  93  91  94  96
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   7   7   7

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow showers early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 30.
Min humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.
Vent Rate(m/s)......380

TIME (AKST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  27  27  26  26  26  36  36  36  50  50  50
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....SW  SW  SW
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  10  10  10  0   0   0   10  10  10
Temp............20  19  19  20  21  23  26  27  29  30  30  30
RH..............94  93  92  92  91  91  90  87  85  84  85  87
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   7   7   7   9   9   9   8   8   8

$$
Forecaster...Jones
Requested by...Nathan Basford
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525742.0/AER
.DELDT 11/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.basford@usda.gov