509
FXAK68 PAFC 281249
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 AM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Conditions should remain relatively benign across Southcentral,
with clearing skies as a drier airmass filters in from the
northwest. Winds will remain light in most spots, though breezy
offshore winds are expected through Seward and Kodiak as the low
currently east of Kodiak continues to move east.

A shortwave trough sweeps across interior Alaska on Tuesday and
will scrape the northern to central portions of Southcentral.
Consensus has the shortwave reaching as far south as Anchorage
before lifting back north and east into the Copper Basin. Most of
the rain and mountain snow will be confined to the upper
elevations, but some light rain is possible tomorrow morning for
Anchorage and the Mat Valley. The shortwave will help to pull in
colder air to the region which may result in light snow above as
low as 1800 ft. Models have trended much colder with this airmass
so areas like Glen Alps and South Fork Eagle River could have some
light snow Tuesday.

For Wednesday, a trough will move back over the area with a
surface low developing south of Seward. Weak lift and weak winds
aloft should help to bring steady precipitation to the Sound and
the population centers from the southern Mat-Su down into the
Kenai Peninsula. Even colder air will wrap in around the low
bringing 850 mb temperatures down to a range of -2 to -5 C
depending on the model. This would yield steady snow for areas
like Thompson Pass and even South Fork Eagle River and portions of
the upper Hillside. The NAM is a significant cold outlier and
drops snow as low as 800 ft, but we will continue to watch the
progression of temperatures aloft as we get closer in time.
Overall confidence is moderate (40-60%) that some of the upper
elevations of Anchorage and Eagle River will get some snow on
Wednesday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

* Colder temperatures move into Southwest Alaska Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

* Showery conditions continue across Southwest Alaska as the
  upper-level trough remains overhead.

Discussion:

An active pattern continues across the Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska through the middle of the week as a series of upper-level
lows and shortwaves move across the region.

For today, an upper-level low continues to move across Southwest
Alaska while gradually weakening. Cyclonic flow associated with
this feature will maintain areas of clouds and showers across
Southwest Alaska, with additional showers extending across
portions of the Bering Sea and Aleutians. The unsettled pattern
will also keep breezy conditions in place at times, particularly
along the coast and through favored gaps.

By Tuesday, the upper low shifts farther east while another trough
digs southward across western Alaska and the Bering Sea. This will
allow a colder air mass to spread into Southwest Alaska, with
temperatures trending noticeable cooler compared with recent
days. Daytime temperatures will struggle to warm, while overnight
temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning become
increasingly chilly, especially across the interior portions of
Southwest Alaska. Showery precipitation will continue in
association with the upper trough, though coverage will become
more scattered with time.

The cooler pattern persists into Wednesday as broad troughing
remains over western Alaska and the Bering. Another cold night is
expected Wednesday night across Southwest Alaska, with the coldest
temperatures again favored across inland locations. Meanwhile, a
ridge begins building into the western and central Bering Sea,
allowing c conditions to gradually become quieter from west to
east. However, lingering cyclonic flow over Southwest Alaska will
keep the potential for scattered showers through Wednesday.

Farther west, the Aleutians transition toward comparatively
quieter conditions as the ridge moves overhead. Attention then
turns to the western Bering and Aleutians late Wednesday into
Thursday as the next North Pacific system approaches from the
west, bringing the potential for another increase in winds and
precipitation.

- LM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Southcentral: A trough continues to dig into the Gulf of Alaska
into next weekend. Though model spread persists, most ensembles
and deterministic guidance agree with an upper level low moving
south out of the Interior early next weekend. The combination of
the digging trough and upper level low brings keeps the chance of
rain across the Prince William Coast and Eastern Kenai Peninsula
coast ranging from between 60 and 70% with inland locations at 20%
late this week but increasing to 40% through next weekend. Also,
winds through the Barren Islands from Friday afternoon through
late Saturday morning have a 45% chance of gusting above 45 mph.
In the latter part of next weekend, a low forms in the Gulf of
Alaska. It will meander in the Gulf of Alaska bringing rain to the
Prince William Sound coast while drawing southward cooler air for
the rest of Southcentral.

Southwest: A mid-week trough bringing frequent rain showers to
the Aleutians and Southwest is replaced by a more zonal/weak
ridge late this week. This ridgingANCAFDAVN is short-lived as a
front from Kamchatka low quickly moves through the Aleutians
reaching the Mainland late next weekend. Wind speed chances
exceeding 45 mph range from 40% to 60% though exceeding 55 mph is
20%; highest chances in the ALeutians.

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Shallow fog in the morning should give way to mostly clear skies
and high clouds on Monday. Light and variable winds will linger
into early Tuesday.

-BL

&&


$$