489
FXAK68 PAFC 081213
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

A low in the Gulf is continuing to have lesser influence over
conditions across Southcentral this morning as it drifts closer to
the Panhandle region. Mainland portions of Southcentral now sit
within a col in between stronger features aloft, and this is
yielding very weak winds and mostly calm/dry conditions by and
large. Streaks of mid to upper level cloud cover are persisting,
but are thin enough to allow for some filtered sunlight at times.
Gap winds through the typical valleys are finally beginning to
diminish as coastal ridging neutralizes, and this trend should
continue as the day progresses. Otherwise, expect pretty similar
temperatures and sky cover compared to yesterday through this
evening.

By Tuesday, focus shifts to what could become a decent rain-maker
(for June standards) across portions of Southcentral. A digging
shortwave trough will cross over the Alaska Range during the
morning hours, reaching the Talkeetna and Chugach mountains by the
afternoon. It still looks likely that a band of rain will develop
out ahead of the trough across the Susitna Valley by tonight, then
progress east into the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and Mat Valley
by sometime tomorrow morning. However, there is still a very large
spread in rainfall totals across recent runs of available model
guidance, especially around the Anchorage and Palmer vicinity.
Rainfall potential will hinge on how quickly the trough moves
through, as well as the orientation of flow relative to the Alaska
Range on the leading portion of the trough. If we end up with a
bit better southwest flow ahead of the shortwave and a slower
trough progression, expect amounts across the Mat-Su Valleys and
Anchorage to be on the higher side, perhaps up to a few tenths of
an inch through Tuesday afternoon.

Farther east, lift and cooling aloft ahead of the trough axis
will facilitate potential for widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday.
The best chance for thunder will be concentrated across much of
the northern Copper Basin, and perhaps as far west as the
Talkeetna Mountains. Expect an unsettled and showery day once
again for Wednesday as the trough slows down and drifts into the
Copper Basin. Some clearing on the backside of the trough could
also allow for a more sunny afternoon for parts of the western
Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su Valleys.

-AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

Convection from yesterday and last night has tapered off across
Mainland Southwest Alaska this morning. A few showers, though,
remain confined along the Western Alaska Range. For the rest of
today, a stronger trough, along with colder air, digs south across
Mainland Southwest and will result in another of rain mainly
across the southwestern interior this afternoon and evening. A few
showers will linger into Tuesday morning across the Western
Alaska Range and upper Aleutian Range before rain tapers off
through the morning into Tuesday afternoon. Cooler temperatures
across Southwest are in store for both today and Tuesday where
they will struggle to get much warmer than 60 degrees. It is
important to note, that due to the cooler and more stable airmass
incoming, thunderstorm formation is less of a concern today across
Southwest. A warming trend begins Wednesday and Thursday when a
ridge begins to work over the area. Aside from today and into
Tuesday morning, expect drier weather Wednesday and Thursday
across Southwest.

Farther out west, the story remains the same with high pressure
in control across much of the Bering. The result continues to be
low stratus, fog, and misty conditions across the Aleutian Chain,
Pribilof Islands, and along the Bering Sea side of the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN). Expect this overcast and dreary pattern to
continue through much of the short-term forecast. The axis of the
high pressure ridge moves east over Adak/Atka by Wednesday. This
opens the door for a North Pacific low, near southern Kamchatka
Wednesday morning, to send its front eastward into the western
Bering and Western Aleutians by Wednesday evening. The low-end
gale-force front will deliver gusty southeast winds to Shemya
Wednesday evening into Thursday along with light to moderate rain
at times. There are indications that the storm track will become
more active farther east towards the North Pacific side of the
AKPEN by Friday. Stay tuned for updates regarding late week into
this upcoming weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A weak Gulf low will bring showers to Southcentral Alaska through
Friday before dissipating while a ridge over the Aleutians will
give fair weather including Southwest Alaska. There is strong
model agreement of a rain-heavy precipitation event for Prince
William Sound and Kodiak Island from a Gulf Low originating in the
North Pacific Friday night through beyond Sunday. Most of the
forecasting region will be impacted by that low with typical
precipitation amounts. The Western Aleutians will have showers
from a North Pacific low.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through tonight. Southeast wind
should finally diminish during the morning hours today, becoming
weaker and southwesterly during the afternoon. A trough of low
pressure moving in from the northwest will bring potential for
rain arriving at the terminal sometime late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Expect ceilings to lower as rain arrives, perhaps dipping
into MVFR range by early Tuesday morning.

&&


$$