608
FXAK68 PAFC 181343
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 AM AKST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The overall weather today will be very similar to that observed
yesterday with slightly warmer temperatures and training showers
focused on the western Kenai Peninsula, Susitna Valley, and
eastern Prince William Sound. These will continue through
Wednesday morning as the pattern begins to be influenced by a
large trough with multiple embedded lows over the Bering and a
broad, and somewhat deep low moving into the southeastern Gulf.
While these systems approach, skies will generally clear out and
temperatures will drop a few degrees from those observed today.

Moving into Thursday will begin a shift into what could be
multiple days of potentially impactful weather as a deep low moves
into either Bristol Bay and then north, or across the Alaska
Peninsula and into either Cook Inlet or the Gulf. The Bristol Bay
and then north track, which has been the main track of the GFS and
NAM model (until the 6Z NAM) would result in a chinook like
pattern with potential for freezing rain and rain from the
southern Mat-Su south through the greater Cook Inlet region.
Downsloping with the strong winds would likely eat up most of the
moisture coming over the mountains from the southeast, but some
light spill over would be possible. While surface temperatures
would may be above freezing at the time of precipitation due to
the strong winds, there is plenty of snow on the area`s roadways
and after the cold snap of last week, precipitation may freeze on
contact regardless of the air temperatures.

The second storm track, which as of writing this is looking more
likely, or at least trending towards, would stall out the low
south of 60 N and instead either move the low over the Kenai
Peninsula, into Cook Inlet, or south into the Gulf, or some
combination of the three. The threat of freezing rain still exists
in this pattern as well, mainly due to overrunning warm air from
the system in the eastern Gulf on Wednesday. In fact, the threat
of true freezing rain (rain falling into a below freezing airmass
rather than just frozen surfaces) may be higher as northerly,
down-inlet and colder winds would be more likely, and rain falling
into the layer would likely go through a warm nose near
3000ft. For now, the forecast uncertainty is high and the exact
impacts will be storm track dependent, but for now these are the
two more likely scenarios, either the chinook with some
rain/freezing rain, or freezing rain transitioning to snow. Many
areas, especially the northern Susitna and Copper, may see limited
impacts from either scenario, other than continued warm
temperatures.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Friday morning)...

Cold air aloft continues to move back into mainland Southwest
Alaska today as the strong low that brought active weather across
the area the last couple of days continues its journey north to
the Bering Strait. The cold and unstable airmass is depicted
nicely on both the Bethel and King Salmon radars this morning as
they show showers moving inland of Southwest from the Bering.
Temperatures will remain near freezing today across most of
mainland Southwest. The coldest locations will be along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island while warmer temperatures
in the mid 30s will occur along the northern coast of Bristol Bay
and interior Bristol Bay. Rain and snow showers will continue for
most of the day today across mainland Southwest. The best chance
to see a light snow accumulation will be across the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast, including Nunivak and Nelson Islands, as well as
along the Kuskokwim Mountains from Kilbuck to Aniak. Bethel may
also see a light accumulation before all is said and done there
later this morning into the early afternoon. Across Bristol Bay,
expect mostly rain/snow mix with little to accumulation today.

Shifting gears to farther out west, a front moves across the
Western Aleutians and western Bering with gusty southeasterly
winds and rain. The front makes it to the Central Aleutians later
this morning and to the Pribilof Islands and Eastern Aleutians
tonight. Confidence is higher today than it was yesterday
regarding on where a low would spin up along this front. As the
parent low, currently just to the south of Kamchatka, moves into
the western Bering very late tonight or early Wednesday morning, a
triple point low will spin up just west of the Pribilof Islands
by then. This will help to enhance rain and winds across the
islands, but not overly strong. This new low moves north to just
west of Nunivak Island late Wednesday morning. A strong push of
southerly flow will accompany this system as its front moves into
the coast Wednesday. However, the airmass from the south will not
be overly warm. Most precipitation along Bristol Bay associated
with this front will likely fall as plain rain. However, despite
the southerly flow, Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
could remain snow for a longer period Wednesday morning before a
transition to rain/snow mix or even plain rain through the day
Wednesday. This low will depart to the north and make it to the
Bering Strait region by late Wednesday night.

The pattern amplifies further on Wednesday night as the broad
upper-level trough complex across the Bering digs into the North
Pacific. A robust shortwave and associated strong surface low
pressure system will lift from the North Pacific to the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN) Wednesday evening. Strong gusty gale-force
southeasterly winds as well as heavy rain are likely along the
AKPEN starting Wednesday afternoon. While confidence for strong
winds and heavy rain is greatest along the AKPEN, there are still
questions about the exact track of this system. Confidence for
precipitation-type and precipitation intensity along Bristol Bay
and the Kuskokwim Delta/Kuskokwim Delta Coast for Wednesday night
and Thursday are extremely low at this time until there is more
confidence in storm track. Behind this low, a colder airmass will
spread across the Bering for Thursday night and Friday with
instability-driven showers likely across the Aleutian Chain,
Pribilof Islands, and southern AKPEN as mainland Southwest will
contend with wrap around moisture from the low that looks to be in
Cook Inlet or along the Kenai Peninsula early Friday morning.
Stay tuned for forecast updates as details on the exact track of
this low will hopefully become clearer with time.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Forecast confidence is generally low from late this week through
early next week. Generally expect stormy weather as a low impacts
Southern Alaska on Friday, followed by a brief break before the
next storm moves into the Bering Sea from the west.

Broad upper level troughing will be present over the Bering Sea
by the start of the long term forecast period. A robust shortwave
curving up from the North Pacific will spur the development of a
surface low near the Alaska Peninsula. However, model solutions
remain very divergent, which makes forecast details and potential
impacts difficult to pinpoint. Among the deterministic solutions,
low tracks range from the low curving up the Southwest Alaska
coastline, to the low moving onshore in Bristol Bay, to the low
curving up the Gulf coast towards Prince William Sound. Given the
strength of this low (minimum MSLP as low as 950-960 mb), gales
are likely, with sustained storm force winds possible. All told,
this will be a potentially impactful storm, and one to watch as
forecast confidence gradually improves.

As the aforementioned low gradually weakens and exits out of the
Southern Mainland, a ridge will move in, followed by the front
from a strong low that moves in by Saturday. Winds to storm force
are possible with this front, impacting the Western and Central
Bering/Aleutians. As the front approaches the Mainland by Monday,
secondary lows developing along the front will lead to stormy
weather along the Bering Sea, though uncertainty with low tracks
will once again lead to difficulty pinpointing exact details.
Overall, a low-confidence long-term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...There are some light showers in the area on radar, but
there is a stout layer of dry air between 800 and 5500 ft to
overcome before any precipitation can reach the surface. With
this, VFR conditions are expected. Skies will clear tonight, which
may lead to MVFR to IFR conditions tomorrow morning with fog
possibly developing in the Inlet.

&&


$$