023
FXAK68 PAFC 250035
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 PM AKDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...


 **** Multiple flood Advisories remain in effect for multiple
  streams and rivers in Mat-Su through the next 24 hours. ****

Discussion:

1) Multiple flood Advisories remain in effect for multiple
streams and rivers in Mat-Su through the next 24 hours.

An atmospheric river bringing frequent moderate to heavy rain
to Southcentral over the past week has led to multiple river
rises in the Mat-Su Valley area. A weak trough moves southward
late Sunday bringing another chance for rain to the area early
next week.

2) Northerly winds and mostly clear skies will continue through
the weekend.

A trough over the Interior will remain through the weekend.
Southcentral will continue to dry out this weekend from the
recent rainfall as northerly and northwesterly winds persist.
These clearing skies will result in temperatures in Southcentral
ranging from the upper 60s / lower 70s with lows in the upper 30s
/ lower 40s. Wind gusts through the Shelikof Strait and favored
gap winds in Southcentral today into early tomorrow afternoon
weekend range from 45 to 55 knots. As an upper low moves southeastward
from the Bering Strait, these wind gusts will decrease through
the day tomorrow. Increased loud cover and cooler temperatures
will accompany the arrival of this low too in the Kenai Peninsula
and most of the rest of Southcentral.

Kodiak: West-northwest wind gusts today ranged form 40 to 50 mph
as the aforementioned trough dominates. The strong winds have
resuspended ash from Katmai prompting a Special Weather Statement
through 10 PM tonight for the southern side of Kodiak Island. Those
in sensitive groups or with respiratory ailments are encouraged
to avoid or reduce outdoor activity to avoid inhaling the
ash, especially for the communities of Karluk and Larsen Bay. Through
this evening, winds decrease as the North Pacific High builds, and
the resuspension of ash will end. Late tomorrow evening and into
Sunday evening, an upper level low from the Bering Strait moves
southeastward over Kodiak Island. This low, while in a more
eastward progression in recent model runs, bring another round of
rain and increased wind gusts to the Island.

-Johnston/PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Skies continue to clear out over the Southwest Alaska mainland as
some ridging builds in bringing drier air from the north. Wind
speeds are still elevated, but will become light tonight. A
strong ridge has built into the Bering and is allowing for less
active weather across the Aleutians. However, a plume of moisture
from the North Pacific is riding up and over the ridge and is
bringing rainfall to Shemya through the Pribilof Islands and into
the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN).

On Saturday, an upper level low drops southwards from Chukotka.
The low is taking a more eastward track than previously forecast and
will interact with the plume of moisture riding around the ridge.
This means another round of light rainfall is expected for much
of Southwest Alaska Saturday. For the AKPEN and the area east of
Unalaska, this low will enhance northerly winds, especially
through bays and passes, reaching just shy of gale force winds.
Also, heavier rainfall is expected in areas of upsloping winds
over the Alaska Peninsula. Bristol Bay and inland areas of
Southwest Alaska will also see an increase in wind speeds, but
these will not be as strong as winds over the Alaska Peninsula. By
Saturday evening, the low crosses the western Alaska Range and
quickly moves into the Gulf, allowing winds and rainfall to
subside. However, for the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians,
rainfall will persist due to moisture plume remaining in place.

By Monday, a front looks to move into the Bering and start to
flatten the ridge. This would bring a swath of precipitation into
the Aleutians. Also, a trough drops into the Southwest mainland,
bringing more rainfall to the area and increasing wind speeds
along the coast.

-JAR/PA

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

By Tuesday, weak ridging persists over the Bering, with weak
troughs in the southern and eastern Gulf of Alaska. This fairly
inactive pattern will allow for less rainfall over the area and
generally weaker wind flow through the region. By Wednesday and
Thursday, the ridging shifts eastward and slowly flattens as the
pattern over the Aleutians and Bering becomes increasingly more
progressive. The broad weak trough over much of Alaska and the
Gulf will help to return rain chances to Southwest by Thursday.
However, by Wednesday, uncertainty grows as model agreement
degrades considerably. Temperatures are on track to stay below
normal for late July for all of the Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska in part due to rain chances returning, and near normal to
above normal for the Bering Sea.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly light winds will persist.
Winds will pick up this afternoon gusting to 22 kts becoming less
than 10 kts after 06Z this evening. Winds shift to westerly early
tomorrow afternoon and then to southerly late tomorrow afternoon.

KM

&&


$$